A Study on Evaluation of Traffic Information Considering Interference between Divers under Uncertainty

不确定性下考虑潜水员干扰的交通信息评估研究

• 批准号: 17360246
• 负责人: KITAMURA Ryuichi
• 金额: $ 5.98万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2005 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17360246/
• 关键词: Uncertainty; Travel Time Perception; Heuristics; Travel Behavior Analysis; Travel Time Information; Participatory Simulation; 経路選択問題; 室内実験; 習慣化; 投錨と調整; 利用可能性

Proposed in this study is a measure of the perception of travel time variability, perceived travel time bandwidth. Results of a six-week diary survey of expressway users in the Osaka metropolitan area of Japan have revealed that perceived bandwidth explains the variation in safety margin more than does the standard deviation of recorded travel times, that the perception of variability is important in explaining travel decision, and that an objective measure of variability, such as the standard deviation of travel times, may not he an effective variable to account fur traveler' decision under uncertainty.The analyses of experimental data, obtained from 76 subjects, lend support to some of the hypotheses postulated on the perception of representative travel time. It has shown that availability by recentness applies in the perception of representative travel time before habitualization. The results have also shown that the association between perceived representative travel time and experienced travel times weakens after habitualization. Neither availability by extremity nor anchoring has been demonstrated by the analysis of the experimental data.The numerical examples of this study provide results that improvements in network flow are negligibly small even when precise information on travel time is provided. In case where no predictive travel time information is present, results of agent-based route choice simulation indicate that higher levels of drivers' cognitive capabilities tend to produce more self-organization of drivers and stable network flows. It is also shown that information on routes that a driver did not take is important for this self-orgarnization. Simulation results also indicate that predictive travel time information is ineffective even when it is accurate.

在这项研究中提出的是一个衡量的感知旅行时间的变化，感知旅行时间带宽。对日本大坂大都市区高速公路用户进行的为期六周的日记调查结果表明，感知带宽比记录的旅行时间标准差更能解释安全裕度的变化，对可变性的感知在解释旅行决策方面很重要，并且可变性的客观度量，如旅行时间标准差，通过对76名被试的实验数据的分析，支持了关于代表性旅行时间感知的一些假设。它表明，最近的可用性适用于在习惯化之前的代表性旅行时间的感知。研究结果还表明，感知的代表性旅行时间和经验的旅行时间之间的关联减弱后，习惯化。通过对实验数据的分析，既没有极端的可用性，也没有锚定，本研究的数值例子提供的结果是，即使提供了精确的旅行时间信息，网络流量的改善也是微不足道的。在没有预测行程时间信息的情况下，基于代理的路径选择模拟的结果表明，较高水平的驾驶员的认知能力往往会产生更多的自组织驾驶员和稳定的网络流。它还表明，信息的路线，司机没有采取这种自我组织是很重要的。仿真结果还表明，即使预测出行时间信息准确，也是无效的。

项目成果

Travel time bandwidth as a measure of perceived travel time variability: An empirical analysis of its effectiveness

行程时间带宽作为感知行程时间变异性的衡量标准：对其有效性的实证分析

• 发表时间: 2006
• 作者: Kitamura;R.;A. Kikuchi and K. Ushiwaka
• 通讯作者: A. Kikuchi and K. Ushiwaka

On the commuter's safety margin and perceived travel time uncertainty(in Japanese)

论通勤者的安全裕度和感知的旅行时间不确定性（日语）

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Infrastructure Planning Review 22(3)
• 作者: Ushiwaka;K.;A.;Kikuchi;R.;Kitamura
• 通讯作者: Kitamura

Can Travel Time Information Really Influence Network Flow? Implications of the Minority Game

行程时间信息真的能影响网络流量吗？

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM (CD-ROM)
• 作者: 上田完次; 佐藤勇気;飯田善郎;井寄 幸平;Nariaki Nishino;Atsushi Iwasaki;Nariaki Nishino;Ryuichi Kitamura
• 通讯作者: Ryuichi Kitamura

Commuters' Perception of Travel Time and Uncertainty under Congestion Pricing: Results of Six-week Field Experiment

通勤者对拥堵收费下出行时间和不确定性的看法：六周现场实验的结果

• 发表时间: 2005
• 作者: Ushiwaka;K.;A. Kikuchi;and R. Kitamura
• 通讯作者: and R. Kitamura

Commuters' Perception of Travel Time and Uncertainty under Congestion Pricing : Results of Six-week Field Experiment

通勤者对拥堵收费下的出行时间和不确定性的看法：六周现场实验的结果

• 发表时间: 2005
• 作者: Ushiwaka;K.;A.;Kikuchi;R.;Kitamura
• 通讯作者: Kitamura