Travel Behavior Models with Explicit Consideration of Information Search and Processing toward the Evaluation of Advanced Traveler Information

本研究的目的是提出一种基于“有限理性”概念的方法来定量评估先进的旅行者信息系统的影响，该概念放宽了传统模型中“工具理性”的一些假设。首先，我们建立了两个明确考虑信息搜索和处理机制的离散选择模型：一个是关于信息获取的，另一个是关于信息处理的。使用潜在类别模型来表示个体之间决策过程的异质性。结果表明，与假设“工具合理性”的传统模型相比，所提出的模型在可重复性和预测精度方面都具有优越性。还验证了由于所提模型的自由度极高，需要收集和利用多种数据源，如心理数据和SP数据，并结合实际选择数据，才能得到无偏有效的参数估计。其次，研究了先进出行者信息系统对交通网络需求的影响。建立了不同等级用户对出行时间和网络配置认知水平不同的多等级用户均衡模型，并将其应用于名古屋都市圈道路网络。结果表明，当20-30%的驾驶员（主要是私人出行驾驶员）只选择主干道时，与观测到的交通流拟合最佳。这导致了主干道不必要的拥堵。通过提供全网信息使其达到均衡状态，这类司机的出行时间减少收益约为70900日元（600美元）。但是，我们不能得出这样的结论：这种对主干道的集中是由于网络配置信息不完善，或者仅仅是由于对主干道的偏好。第三，利用在名古屋市区进行的大规模探测车实验，对探测车数据进行分析，直接观察路径选择行为。我们调查了一个交通繁忙的O-D对，其中一条收费路线和几条免费路线可以使用。发现30-70%的旅客使用收费路线，这意味着VOT分布。我们观察到有多条免费路线使用，其中出行时间相差10-20%。还观察到，收费路线往往较慢，但许多司机选择它。因此，相当数量的司机做出了看似非理性的决策。这些观察结果可能部分地由信息不完善以及旅行时间和费用以外的其他因素来解释。研究了探测车数据的特点及其在交通规划中的应用潜力，结果表明探测车数据在数量和质量上都比传统的问卷式出行调查要丰富得多。少

The aim of this research is to propose the methodologies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of advanced traveler information systems based on the concept of "bounded rationality" which relax some of the assumptions of "instrumental rationality" postulated in conventional models. Firstly, we developed the two discrete choice models which explicitly consider the mechanism of information searches and processing: one is about the information acquisition, and the other is about the information processing. Latent class models were utilized to represent the heterogeneity of the decision making processes among individuals. These models were empirically applied, and the results showed that the proposed model was superior in both reproducibility and predictive accuracy compared to the conventional models in which "instrumental rationality" is assumed. Also verified was that since the degree of freedom of proposed models are extremely high, it is essential to collect and utilize the various d … More ata sources, such as psychological data and SP data, together with the actual choice data to get the unbiased and effective parameter estimates.Secondly, we investigated the impacts of advanced traveler information system on transportation network demand. The multi-class user equilibrium model, in which the cognitive levels on travel time and network configuration differ between each class, was developed and empirically applied to the road network of Nagoya metropolitan area. The result showed that we obtained the best fit to the observed traffic flows when we set 20-30% of drivers, mainly private trip drivers, choose only arterial roads. This causes unnecessary congestion on arterial roads. By providing information of the full network to make the equilibrium state, about 70,900 JPY (600 USD) of travel time reduction benefits accrues to such drivers. But we cannot conclude that this concentration to arterial roads is attributed to imperfect information on network configuration or simply due to the preference bias to arterials.Thirdly, probe car data are analyzed both to directly observe route choice behavior using a large scale probe-car experiment conducted in Nagoya metropolitan area. We investigated a heavily traveled O-D pair for which a toll route and several free routes can be used. It was found that 30-70% travelers used the toll route, implying that VOT distributes. We observed that multiple free routes were used among which travel times differed 10-20%. Also observed was that the toll route was often slower but many drivers chose it. Thus, substantial number of drivers made seemingly irrational decision making. Those observations may partly be explained by imperfect information and other factors than travel time and cost. We also investigated the characteristics of probe car data and its potentials toward the transportation planning, and the results showed that probe-car data could be much richer both in quantity and quality compared to traditional questionnaire type travel surveys. Less