Travel Behavior Models with Explicit Consideration of Information Search and Processing toward the Evaluation of Advanced Traveler Information

明确考虑信息搜索和处理的旅行行为模型，用于评估高级旅行者信息

• 批准号: 13450209
• 负责人: MORIKAWA Takayuki
• 金额: $ 3.97万
• 依托单位: Nagoya University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13450209/
• 关键词: Advanced Traveler Information System; Travel Behavior Analysis; Route Choice Behavior; Equilibrium Traffic Assignment; Imperfect Information; Latent Class Model; Intelligent Transport Systems; Probe-Car Data; 経路選択; 情報の不完全性

The aim of this research is to propose the methodologies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of advanced traveler information systems based on the concept of "bounded rationality" which relax some of the assumptions of "instrumental rationality" postulated in conventional models. Firstly, we developed the two discrete choice models which explicitly consider the mechanism of information searches and processing: one is about the information acquisition, and the other is about the information processing. Latent class models were utilized to represent the heterogeneity of the decision making processes among individuals. These models were empirically applied, and the results showed that the proposed model was superior in both reproducibility and predictive accuracy compared to the conventional models in which "instrumental rationality" is assumed. Also verified was that since the degree of freedom of proposed models are extremely high, it is essential to collect and utilize the various d … More ata sources, such as psychological data and SP data, together with the actual choice data to get the unbiased and effective parameter estimates.Secondly, we investigated the impacts of advanced traveler information system on transportation network demand. The multi-class user equilibrium model, in which the cognitive levels on travel time and network configuration differ between each class, was developed and empirically applied to the road network of Nagoya metropolitan area. The result showed that we obtained the best fit to the observed traffic flows when we set 20-30% of drivers, mainly private trip drivers, choose only arterial roads. This causes unnecessary congestion on arterial roads. By providing information of the full network to make the equilibrium state, about 70,900 JPY (600 USD) of travel time reduction benefits accrues to such drivers. But we cannot conclude that this concentration to arterial roads is attributed to imperfect information on network configuration or simply due to the preference bias to arterials.Thirdly, probe car data are analyzed both to directly observe route choice behavior using a large scale probe-car experiment conducted in Nagoya metropolitan area. We investigated a heavily traveled O-D pair for which a toll route and several free routes can be used. It was found that 30-70% travelers used the toll route, implying that VOT distributes. We observed that multiple free routes were used among which travel times differed 10-20%. Also observed was that the toll route was often slower but many drivers chose it. Thus, substantial number of drivers made seemingly irrational decision making. Those observations may partly be explained by imperfect information and other factors than travel time and cost. We also investigated the characteristics of probe car data and its potentials toward the transportation planning, and the results showed that probe-car data could be much richer both in quantity and quality compared to traditional questionnaire type travel surveys. Less

这项研究的目的是提出基于“有限合理性”的概念来定量评估高级旅行者信息系统的影响的方法，这些方法放松了传统模型中发布的“工具合理性”的某些假设。首先，我们开发了两个离散选择模型，这些模型明确考虑了信息搜索和处理的机制：一个是关于信息获取的，而另一个是关于信息处理的。使用潜在的班级模型来表示个人之间决策过程的异质性。这些模型紧急应用了，结果表明，与假定“仪器合理性”的常规模型相比，所提出的模型在可重复性和预测精度上都是优越的。还验证的是，由于提出的模型的自由度极高，因此必须收集和利用各种D…更多的ATA来源，例如心理数据和SP数据，以及实际选择数据，以获得无偏见的有效参数估计。第二，我们研究了高级旅行者信息系统对运输网络需求的影响。多级用户等效模型，其中每个类之间的旅行时间和网络配置的认知水平是开发的，并紧急应用于Nagoya Metropolitan地区的道路网络。结果表明，当我们将20-30％的驾驶员（主要是私人旅行司机）选择仅选择动脉道路时，我们获得了观察到的交通流的最佳拟合度。这会导致动脉道路上不必要的拥塞。通过提供整个网络的信息来建立同等状态，约有70,900 JPY（600美元）的缩短时间减少额的福利。但是，我们不能包括该集中到动脉道路的归因于有关网络配置的不完善信息，或仅仅是由于偏好偏见与动脉的偏爱。三分之二，分析了探测器数据，均分析了使用Nagoya Metropolitan地区进行的大型探测器实验直接观察路线选择行为。我们调查了一对旅行的O-D对，可以使用收费路线和几条免费路线。发现有30-70％的旅行者使用了收费路线，这意味着投票所分发。我们观察到使用了多个免费路线，其中旅行时间差异10-20％。还观察到的是，收费路线通常较慢，但许多驾驶员选择它。那是大量驾驶员做出了不合理的决策。这些观察结果可以部分用不完美的信息和其他因素来解释，而不是旅行时间和成本。我们还研究了探针数据数据的特征及其对运输计划的潜力，结果表明，与传统的问卷类型旅行调查相比，探针卡数据的数量和质量可能更丰富。较少的

项目成果

小林圭, 森川高行: "不完全情報を仮定したネットワーク均衡配分と情報提供効果に関する研究"土木計画学研究・講演集. Vol.24(CD-ROM). (2001)

Kei Kobayashi、Takayuki Morikawa：“假设不完全信息的网络均衡分配和信息提供效应研究”土木工程规划研究和讲座第 24 卷（CD-ROM）。

三輪富生, 森川高行, 岡田良之: "プローブカーデータによるOD表の作成と経路選択行動の分析"第1回ITSシンポジウム. 591-596 (2002)

Tomio Miwa、Takayuki Morikawa、Yoshiyuki Okada：“使用探测车数据创建 OD 表并分析路线选择行为”第一届 ITS 研讨会（2002 年）。

Kurauchi,S., Morikawa,T.and Sobue,S.: "Discrete Choice Model with Latent Classes Considering Heterogeneity of Attribute Sets"Proc.of Infrastructure Planning, JSCE. No.24(CD-ROM). (2001)

Kurauchi,S.、Morikawa,T. 和 Sobue,S.：“考虑属性集异质性的潜在类离散选择模型”Proc.of 基础设施规划，JSCE。

倉内慎也, 森川高行, 祖父江誠二: "評価属性集合の差異を考慮した離散型選択モデルに関する研究"土木計画学研究・講演集. Vol.24 (CD-ROM). (2001)

Shinya Kurauchi、Takayuki Morikawa、Seiji Sobue：“考虑评估属性集差异的离散选择模型的研究”土木工程规划研究和讲座第 24 卷（CD-ROM）。

Morikawa,T.and Kurauchi,S.: "Expansion of Rationalities and Its Implication to Individual Choice Models"Journal of Infrastructure Planning and Management, JSCE. No.702/IV-55. 15-29 (2002)

Morikawa,T. 和 Kurauchi,S.：“理性的扩展及其对个人选择模型的影响”基础设施规划与管理杂志，JSCE。