Travel Behavior Models with Explicit Consideration of Information Search and Processing toward the Evaluation of Advanced Traveler Information

明确考虑信息搜索和处理的旅行行为模型，用于评估高级旅行者信息

• 批准号: 13450209
• 负责人: MORIKAWA Takayuki
• 金额: $ 3.97万
• 依托单位: Nagoya University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13450209/
• 关键词: Advanced Traveler Information System; Travel Behavior Analysis; Route Choice Behavior; Equilibrium Traffic Assignment; Imperfect Information; Latent Class Model; Intelligent Transport Systems; Probe-Car Data; 経路選択; 情報の不完全性

The aim of this research is to propose the methodologies to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of advanced traveler information systems based on the concept of "bounded rationality" which relax some of the assumptions of "instrumental rationality" postulated in conventional models. Firstly, we developed the two discrete choice models which explicitly consider the mechanism of information searches and processing: one is about the information acquisition, and the other is about the information processing. Latent class models were utilized to represent the heterogeneity of the decision making processes among individuals. These models were empirically applied, and the results showed that the proposed model was superior in both reproducibility and predictive accuracy compared to the conventional models in which "instrumental rationality" is assumed. Also verified was that since the degree of freedom of proposed models are extremely high, it is essential to collect and utilize the various d … More ata sources, such as psychological data and SP data, together with the actual choice data to get the unbiased and effective parameter estimates.Secondly, we investigated the impacts of advanced traveler information system on transportation network demand. The multi-class user equilibrium model, in which the cognitive levels on travel time and network configuration differ between each class, was developed and empirically applied to the road network of Nagoya metropolitan area. The result showed that we obtained the best fit to the observed traffic flows when we set 20-30% of drivers, mainly private trip drivers, choose only arterial roads. This causes unnecessary congestion on arterial roads. By providing information of the full network to make the equilibrium state, about 70,900 JPY (600 USD) of travel time reduction benefits accrues to such drivers. But we cannot conclude that this concentration to arterial roads is attributed to imperfect information on network configuration or simply due to the preference bias to arterials.Thirdly, probe car data are analyzed both to directly observe route choice behavior using a large scale probe-car experiment conducted in Nagoya metropolitan area. We investigated a heavily traveled O-D pair for which a toll route and several free routes can be used. It was found that 30-70% travelers used the toll route, implying that VOT distributes. We observed that multiple free routes were used among which travel times differed 10-20%. Also observed was that the toll route was often slower but many drivers chose it. Thus, substantial number of drivers made seemingly irrational decision making. Those observations may partly be explained by imperfect information and other factors than travel time and cost. We also investigated the characteristics of probe car data and its potentials toward the transportation planning, and the results showed that probe-car data could be much richer both in quantity and quality compared to traditional questionnaire type travel surveys. Less

本研究的目的是提出的方法来定量评估先进的旅行者信息系统的影响的基础上的“有限理性”的概念，放宽了一些假设的“工具理性”在传统的模型。首先，我们建立了两个离散选择模型，这两个模型明确考虑了信息搜索和加工的机制：一个是关于信息获取的，另一个是关于信息加工的。潜类模型被用来代表个人之间的决策过程的异质性。这些模型的经验应用，结果表明，所提出的模型是上级的再现性和预测精度相比，传统的模型，其中“工具理性”的假设。同时也验证了由于所建模型的自由度非常高，因此收集和利用各种数据是必要的。 ...更多信息 数据源，如心理数据和SP数据，结合实际选择数据，得到无偏有效的参数估计。其次，研究了先进的出行者信息系统对交通网络需求的影响。建立了不同等级用户对出行时间和网络结构认知水平不同的多等级用户均衡模型，并将其应用于名古屋都市圈的道路网络。结果表明，当20-30%的驾驶员（主要是私人出行的驾驶员）只选择主干道时，我们获得了与观察到的交通流的最佳拟合。这会导致主干道出现不必要的拥堵。通过提供整个网络的信息来实现平衡状态，这些驾驶员获得了约70，900 JPY（600 USD）的旅行时间减少收益。但我们不能得出这样的结论，这种集中的干线道路是由于不完善的信息网络配置或简单地由于偏好偏差的干线。第三，探测车数据进行了分析，直接观察路线选择行为使用大规模的探测车实验在名古屋大都市区。我们调查了一个交通繁忙的O-D对，收费路线和几个免费路线可以使用。结果发现，30-70%的旅行者使用收费路线，这意味着VOT分布。我们观察到，使用多条自由路线，其中旅行时间相差10- 20%。同时观察到的是，收费路线往往较慢，但许多司机选择它。因此，相当多的司机作出了看似不合理的决策。这些观察结果的部分原因可能是信息不完善以及旅行时间和费用以外的其他因素。研究结果表明，与传统的问卷式出行调查相比，探测车数据在数量和质量上都有很大的提高。少

项目成果

小林圭, 森川高行: "不完全情報を仮定したネットワーク均衡配分と情報提供効果に関する研究"土木計画学研究・講演集. Vol.24(CD-ROM). (2001)

Kei Kobayashi、Takayuki Morikawa：“假设不完全信息的网络均衡分配和信息提供效应研究”土木工程规划研究和讲座第 24 卷（CD-ROM）。

三輪富生, 森川高行, 岡田良之: "プローブカーデータによるOD表の作成と経路選択行動の分析"第1回ITSシンポジウム. 591-596 (2002)

Tomio Miwa、Takayuki Morikawa、Yoshiyuki Okada：“使用探测车数据创建 OD 表并分析路线选择行为”第一届 ITS 研讨会（2002 年）。

Kurauchi,S., Morikawa,T.and Sobue,S.: "Discrete Choice Model with Latent Classes Considering Heterogeneity of Attribute Sets"Proc.of Infrastructure Planning, JSCE. No.24(CD-ROM). (2001)

Kurauchi,S.、Morikawa,T. 和 Sobue,S.：“考虑属性集异质性的潜在类离散选择模型”Proc.of 基础设施规划，JSCE。

Morikawa,T.and Kurauchi,S.: "Expansion of Rationalities and Its Implication to Individual Choice Models"Journal of Infrastructure Planning and Management, JSCE. No.702/IV-55. 15-29 (2002)

Morikawa,T. 和 Kurauchi,S.：“理性的扩展及其对个人选择模型的影响”基础设施规划与管理杂志，JSCE。

倉内慎也, 森川高行, 祖父江誠二: "評価属性集合の差異を考慮した離散型選択モデルに関する研究"土木計画学研究・講演集. Vol.24 (CD-ROM). (2001)

Shinya Kurauchi、Takayuki Morikawa、Seiji Sobue：“考虑评估属性集差异的离散选择模型的研究”土木工程规划研究和讲座第 24 卷（CD-ROM）。