The Impact of Real Exchange Rates Changes on Trade Structure of Japan, the United States, and Fast Asia --Positive Analysis using Price Indices of Trade by products--

实际汇率变化对日本、美国、快亚贸易结构的影响--基于分产品贸易价格指数的实证分析--

基本信息

批准号：
15530176
负责人：
NAGATA Masahiro
金额：
$ 1.6万
依托单位：
Saitama University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530176/
关键词：
East Asia real exchange rate price index volume index financial crisis Japan United States intra-firm trade 貿易構造人民元

项目摘要

We developed Trade Indices database of 2003-2005. By using these indices, we made a quantitative analysis on capital goods trade among Pacific rim countries.1.The major source behind the economic recovery in the Asian countries after 1999 was the rapid expansion of their net exports. Their net exports expanded, because the real exchange rates were sustained at a low level thanks to low inflation rates. The current levels of the real exchange rates in many Asian countries are still lowest after the 1980s, which is quite different from the situation after the financial crises of Russia and Latin American countries such as Mexico. In many Asian countries which experienced financial crises, inflation rates keep low in spite of their massive decline of their currencies. The main factor of the low inflation rates was the decline in the expected inflation rates.2.While China has a big trade surplus of finished capital goods against the United States, it also has a substantial trade deficit of parts against Japan and semi-advanced Asian countries. One of the reasons why the Asian countries have growing trade surplus of capital goods against China is the real exchange rate appreciation of yuan against the East Asian currencies after the Asian currency crisis of 1977, even though it somewhat depreciated against US dollar and yen after the crises.3.Because many multinational corporations try to avoid regulations of host countries, such as restriction on repatriating their profits, they tend to put different prices from the market prices (transfer pricing) on their intra-firm trade. According to our estimation, the price elasticity of both exports and imports are lower in the intra-firm trade compared with the non intra-firm trade. This shows that the volume of intra-firm trade is less sensitive than that of ordinary trade to the real exchange rate fluctuations.

我们开发了2003 - 2005年的贸易指数数据库。通过使用这些指数，我们对太平洋地区的资本货物贸易进行了定量分析。1。1999年以后亚洲国家的经济复苏背后的主要来源是其净出口的迅速扩张。他们的净出口扩大，因为由于通货膨胀率低，实际汇率的持续水平很低。在1980年代以后，许多亚洲国家的实际汇率水平仍最低，这与俄罗斯和拉丁美洲国家（如墨西哥）的金融危机之后的情况大不相同。在许多遭受金融危机的亚洲国家，尽管货币大幅下降，通货膨胀率仍然降低。低通胀率的主要因素是预期的通货膨胀率下降。2。尽管中国对美国的资本货物的贸易盈余很大，但它对日本和半加速的亚洲国家也存在很大的贸易赤字。亚洲国家对中国的贸易盈余不断增长的原因之一是，在1977年亚洲货币危机之后对东亚货币对东亚货币的真实汇率升值，即使它在危机危机之后对美元和日也有所贬值。3.BAS。3.BAS。3.BB，因为许多跨国公司试图避免在主机上的规定，他们倾向于限制他们的规定，他们倾向于限制他们的规定，他们倾向于对他们的限制，他们倾向于对他们的限制，这些价格倾向于对他们的限制，这些价格倾向于依据，他们的规定依赖于他们的规定，他们的规定依赖于他们的规定，他们的规定是偏向于限制的资产，这些价格倾向于对他们的价格进行分配，这些价格倾向于对他们的价格进行依赖，而这些规定倾向于对他们的价格进行依赖的规定，而是偏向于他们的价格。定价）对公司内部贸易。根据我们的估计，与非公司内部贸易相比，公司内部贸易的价格弹性均较低。这表明，公司内部贸易的数量不如普通贸易对实际汇率波动的敏感性不那么敏感。