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The Impact of Real Exchange Rates Changes on Trade Structure of Japan, the United States, and Fast Asia --Positive Analysis using Price Indices of Trade by products--

实际汇率变化对日本、美国、快亚贸易结构的影响--基于分产品贸易价格指数的实证分析--

基本信息

批准号：
15530176
负责人：
NAGATA Masahiro
金额：
$ 1.6万
依托单位：
Saitama University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530176/
关键词：
East Asia real exchange rate price index volume index financial crisis Japan United States intra-firm trade 貿易構造人民元

项目摘要

We developed Trade Indices database of 2003-2005. By using these indices, we made a quantitative analysis on capital goods trade among Pacific rim countries.1.The major source behind the economic recovery in the Asian countries after 1999 was the rapid expansion of their net exports. Their net exports expanded, because the real exchange rates were sustained at a low level thanks to low inflation rates. The current levels of the real exchange rates in many Asian countries are still lowest after the 1980s, which is quite different from the situation after the financial crises of Russia and Latin American countries such as Mexico. In many Asian countries which experienced financial crises, inflation rates keep low in spite of their massive decline of their currencies. The main factor of the low inflation rates was the decline in the expected inflation rates.2.While China has a big trade surplus of finished capital goods against the United States, it also has a substantial trade deficit of parts against Japan and semi-advanced Asian countries. One of the reasons why the Asian countries have growing trade surplus of capital goods against China is the real exchange rate appreciation of yuan against the East Asian currencies after the Asian currency crisis of 1977, even though it somewhat depreciated against US dollar and yen after the crises.3.Because many multinational corporations try to avoid regulations of host countries, such as restriction on repatriating their profits, they tend to put different prices from the market prices (transfer pricing) on their intra-firm trade. According to our estimation, the price elasticity of both exports and imports are lower in the intra-firm trade compared with the non intra-firm trade. This shows that the volume of intra-firm trade is less sensitive than that of ordinary trade to the real exchange rate fluctuations.

我们建立了2003-2005年的贸易指数数据库。利用这些指数，我们对环太平洋国家之间的资本货物贸易进行了定量的分析。1.1999年后亚洲国家经济复苏的主要来源是其净出口的快速增长。他们的净出口扩大了，因为由于低通货膨胀率，实际汇率维持在低水平。许多亚洲国家目前的实际汇率水平仍处于1980年代后的最低水平，这与俄罗斯和墨西哥等拉美国家在金融危机后的情况有很大不同。在许多经历了金融危机的亚洲国家，尽管其货币大幅贬值，但通货膨胀率仍保持在低位。通货膨胀率低的主要原因是预期通货膨胀率的下降。二、中国对美国的资本品成品贸易有较大顺差，但对日本和亚洲半发达国家也有较大的零配件贸易逆差。亚洲国家对中国资本品贸易顺差不断扩大的原因之一是1977年亚洲货币危机后人民币对东亚货币的实际汇率升值，尽管危机后人民币对美元和日元有所贬值。3.由于许多跨国公司试图规避东道国的规定，如限制利润汇回国内，他们倾向于对公司内部贸易设定与市场价格不同的价格(转移定价)。根据我们的估计，与非企业内贸易相比，企业内贸易中出口和进口的价格弹性都较低。这表明企业内贸易量对实际汇率波动的敏感度低于普通贸易量。