The Impact of Real Exchange Rates Changes on Trade Structure of Japan, the United States, and Fast Asia --Positive Analysis using Price Indices of Trade by products--

我们建立了2003-2005年贸易指数数据库。利用这些指标，我们对环太平洋国家间的资本货物贸易进行了定量分析。1999年以后亚洲国家经济复苏的主要原因是净出口的迅速扩大。它们的净出口扩大了，因为由于低通胀率，实际汇率维持在较低水平。许多亚洲国家目前的实际汇率水平仍然是20世纪80年代以来的最低水平，这与俄罗斯和墨西哥等拉美国家金融危机后的情况有很大不同。在许多经历过金融危机的亚洲国家，尽管他们的货币大幅贬值，但通货膨胀率仍然很低。通货膨胀率低的主要因素是预期通货膨胀率的下降。虽然中国对美国的成品资本品贸易顺差很大，但对日本和半发达亚洲国家的零部件贸易逆差也很大。亚洲国家对中国的资本货物贸易顺差之所以越来越大，原因之一是1977年亚洲货币危机后人民币对东亚货币的实际汇率升值，尽管在危机后人民币对美元和日元有所贬值。由于许多跨国公司试图避免东道国的管制，例如限制其利润汇回国内，它们往往对其公司内部贸易采用不同于市场价格的价格（转移定价）。根据我们的估计，与非企业内部贸易相比，企业内部贸易中出口和进口的价格弹性都较低。这表明，企业内部贸易量比普通贸易量对实际汇率波动不那么敏感。

We developed Trade Indices database of 2003-2005. By using these indices, we made a quantitative analysis on capital goods trade among Pacific rim countries.1.The major source behind the economic recovery in the Asian countries after 1999 was the rapid expansion of their net exports. Their net exports expanded, because the real exchange rates were sustained at a low level thanks to low inflation rates. The current levels of the real exchange rates in many Asian countries are still lowest after the 1980s, which is quite different from the situation after the financial crises of Russia and Latin American countries such as Mexico. In many Asian countries which experienced financial crises, inflation rates keep low in spite of their massive decline of their currencies. The main factor of the low inflation rates was the decline in the expected inflation rates.2.While China has a big trade surplus of finished capital goods against the United States, it also has a substantial trade deficit of parts against Japan and semi-advanced Asian countries. One of the reasons why the Asian countries have growing trade surplus of capital goods against China is the real exchange rate appreciation of yuan against the East Asian currencies after the Asian currency crisis of 1977, even though it somewhat depreciated against US dollar and yen after the crises.3.Because many multinational corporations try to avoid regulations of host countries, such as restriction on repatriating their profits, they tend to put different prices from the market prices (transfer pricing) on their intra-firm trade. According to our estimation, the price elasticity of both exports and imports are lower in the intra-firm trade compared with the non intra-firm trade. This shows that the volume of intra-firm trade is less sensitive than that of ordinary trade to the real exchange rate fluctuations.