Trade between Japan, the U.S., and Asia after the Asian Financial Crisis - Quantitative Analysis by Using Quantum and the Price Indices -

亚洲金融危机后的日本、美国和亚洲之间的贸易 - 使用量子和价格指数的定量分析 -

基本信息

批准号：
13630040
负责人：
NAGATA Masahiro
金额：
$ 2.05万
依托单位：
Saitama University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

As for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subsequent recovery, many analyzes are made mainly from financial aspects. However, the analysis through trade activity is not necessarily enough. Furthermore, in many cases, trade data is measured in value terms such as dollar or the national currency basis and not quantitative terms, partly because the detailed trade data in quantitative terms did not exist. In the case of the Asian financial crisis in which the exchange rate of the Asian currencies fluctuated sharply, it is required to analyze by using export or import quantity index. In this research, we analyze what influence the Asian financial crisis had on trade between Japan, the U. S. , and Asia by using quantity and price indices of trade. The major points of the research are as follows.(1) In the exports side, the export quantity from Japan to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand reduced dramatically after the financial crisis. However, they bottomed out in 1Q-2Q of 1998, and by 2000 recovered quickly to the level of those before the financial crisis.(2) In respect of imports, although Japanese import value from Asian countries decreased, import quantity increased steadily even after the financial crisis. Considering the Japan's low or negative economic growth rate after 1998, the depreciation of the Asian currencies is supposed to play an important role in expanding the export volume from these countries to Japan.(3) The IMF is often blamed that their policy advice to the Asian countries worsened further their business climate and accelerated the capital flight from them. However, if we take into account that they almost recovered from a serious damage in such a short period, temporary depression could curb the inflation at the initial stage and lead to a following steady recovery. In that sense, the IMF's policy should be reevaluated.

至于1997年的亚洲金融危机以及随后的恢复，许多分析主要来自财务方面。但是，通过贸易活动进行的分析不一定足够。此外，在许多情况下，贸易数据是按价值术语（例如美元或国货币基础）衡量的，而不是定量术语，部分是因为不存在定量术语的详细贸易数据。在亚洲金融危机的情况下，亚洲货币的汇率急剧波动，需要使用出口或进口数量指数进行分析。在这项研究中，我们分析了亚洲金融危机对日本，美国和亚洲之间贸易的影响，并使用贸易的数量和价格指数。研究的主要要点如下。（1）在出口方，日本到韩国，马来西亚，印度尼西亚和泰国的出口数量在金融危机后大大减少了。但是，他们在1998年的1q-2q中触底了，到2000年，他们迅速恢复到金融危机之前的水平。（2）关于进口的进口，尽管日本来自亚洲国家的进口价值下降，即使在金融危机之后，进口数量也稳步增长。考虑到日本在1998年以后的低或负经济增长率，亚洲货币的贬值应该在扩大这些国家向日本的出口量扩大出口量中发挥重要作用。（3）国际货币基金组织经常被责备责备其对亚洲国家的政策建议对他们的政策建议进一步加剧了他们的商业环境，并从中加速了资本资本。但是，如果我们考虑到它们在如此短的时间内几乎从严重损害中恢复过来，暂时的抑郁症可以遏制初始阶段的通货膨胀，并导致随后的稳定恢复。从这个意义上讲，应该对IMF的政策进行重新评估。