Trade between Japan, the U.S., and Asia after the Asian Financial Crisis - Quantitative Analysis by Using Quantum and the Price Indices -

对于1997年的亚洲金融危机和随后的复苏，许多分析主要是从金融方面进行的。然而，通过贸易活动进行分析并不一定足够。此外，在许多情况下，贸易数据是以美元或国家货币基础等价值单位而不是数量单位来衡量的，部分原因是不存在以数量单位表示的详细贸易数据。在亚洲金融危机中，亚洲货币汇率大幅波动的情况下，需要使用出口或进口数量指数进行分析。在这项研究中，我们使用贸易数量和价格指数来分析亚洲金融危机对日本、美国和亚洲之间的贸易产生了什么影响。研究的主要观点如下：(1)出口方面，金融危机后，日本对韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国的出口量大幅下降。在进口方面，日本从亚洲国家的进口额虽然有所下降，但在金融危机后，进口量仍稳步上升。考虑到日本在1998年后的低经济增长率或负增长，亚洲货币的贬值应该在扩大这些国家对日本的出口额方面发挥重要作用。(3)IMF经常被指责他们对亚洲国家的政策建议进一步恶化了它们的商业环境，加速了资本外逃。然而，如果我们考虑到他们几乎在这么短的时间内从严重的损害中恢复过来，暂时的低迷可能会在初期抑制通胀，并导致随后的稳步复苏。从这个意义上说，应该重新评估IMF的政策。

As for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subsequent recovery, many analyzes are made mainly from financial aspects. However, the analysis through trade activity is not necessarily enough. Furthermore, in many cases, trade data is measured in value terms such as dollar or the national currency basis and not quantitative terms, partly because the detailed trade data in quantitative terms did not exist. In the case of the Asian financial crisis in which the exchange rate of the Asian currencies fluctuated sharply, it is required to analyze by using export or import quantity index. In this research, we analyze what influence the Asian financial crisis had on trade between Japan, the U. S. , and Asia by using quantity and price indices of trade. The major points of the research are as follows.(1) In the exports side, the export quantity from Japan to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand reduced dramatically after the financial crisis. However, they bottomed out in 1Q-2Q of 1998, and by 2000 recovered quickly to the level of those before the financial crisis.(2) In respect of imports, although Japanese import value from Asian countries decreased, import quantity increased steadily even after the financial crisis. Considering the Japan's low or negative economic growth rate after 1998, the depreciation of the Asian currencies is supposed to play an important role in expanding the export volume from these countries to Japan.(3) The IMF is often blamed that their policy advice to the Asian countries worsened further their business climate and accelerated the capital flight from them. However, if we take into account that they almost recovered from a serious damage in such a short period, temporary depression could curb the inflation at the initial stage and lead to a following steady recovery. In that sense, the IMF's policy should be reevaluated.