Trade between Japan, the U.S., and Asia after the Asian Financial Crisis - Quantitative Analysis by Using Quantum and the Price Indices -

亚洲金融危机后的日本、美国和亚洲之间的贸易 - 使用量子和价格指数的定量分析 -

• 批准号: 13630040
• 负责人: NAGATA Masahiro
• 金额: $ 2.05万
• 依托单位: Saitama University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13630040/
• 关键词: Asia; financial crisis; trade index; export volume; import volume; IMF; Japan's trade; 対米貿易; 定量分析; 貿易指数データベース; 数量指数; 価格指数; アジア通貨危機

As for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subsequent recovery, many analyzes are made mainly from financial aspects. However, the analysis through trade activity is not necessarily enough. Furthermore, in many cases, trade data is measured in value terms such as dollar or the national currency basis and not quantitative terms, partly because the detailed trade data in quantitative terms did not exist. In the case of the Asian financial crisis in which the exchange rate of the Asian currencies fluctuated sharply, it is required to analyze by using export or import quantity index. In this research, we analyze what influence the Asian financial crisis had on trade between Japan, the U. S. , and Asia by using quantity and price indices of trade. The major points of the research are as follows.(1) In the exports side, the export quantity from Japan to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand reduced dramatically after the financial crisis. However, they bottomed out in 1Q-2Q of 1998, and by 2000 recovered quickly to the level of those before the financial crisis.(2) In respect of imports, although Japanese import value from Asian countries decreased, import quantity increased steadily even after the financial crisis. Considering the Japan's low or negative economic growth rate after 1998, the depreciation of the Asian currencies is supposed to play an important role in expanding the export volume from these countries to Japan.(3) The IMF is often blamed that their policy advice to the Asian countries worsened further their business climate and accelerated the capital flight from them. However, if we take into account that they almost recovered from a serious damage in such a short period, temporary depression could curb the inflation at the initial stage and lead to a following steady recovery. In that sense, the IMF's policy should be reevaluated.

对于1997年的亚洲金融危机以及随后的复苏，很多分析主要是从金融方面进行的。然而，通过贸易活动进行分析并不一定足够。此外，在许多情况下，贸易数据是按价值计算的，如美元或本国货币，而不是按数量计算的，部分原因是没有详细的贸易数量数据。在亚洲金融危机中，亚洲货币汇率大幅波动，需要使用出口或进口数量指数进行分析。本文分析了亚洲金融危机对日、美、日贸易的影响。S.和亚洲的贸易数量和价格指数。本研究的主要内容如下。(1)在出口方面，金融危机后日本对韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和泰国的出口量大幅减少。然而，它们在1998年第一季度至第二季度触底，到2000年迅速恢复到金融危机前的水平。(2)在进口方面，虽然日本从亚洲各国的进口额减少，但在金融危机后，进口量仍稳步增加。考虑到1998年以后日本经济的低增长率或负增长率，亚洲货币的贬值将对扩大这些国家对日本的出口额发挥重要作用。(3)国际货币基金组织经常被指责为，他们对亚洲国家的政策建议进一步恶化了这些国家的商业环境，加速了资本外逃。然而，如果我们考虑到它们在如此短的时间内几乎从严重的破坏中恢复过来，那么暂时的萧条可以在初期抑制通货膨胀，并导致随后的稳步复苏。从这个意义上说，应该重新评估国际货币基金组织的政策。