Construction of Precipitation Forecasting Model in Asia-Pacific Region using Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices

首先，简单但强大的方法被用来揭示南方涛动指数（SOI）的定量和统计上的显着影响，在5个站分布在韩国和日本福冈的月降水量。将月降水量资料转换为非连续概率时间序列。SOI分为五类。由相关结果得到ENSO影响的空间分布。韩国和日本福冈的月降水量普遍受拉尼娜事件的影响。在韩国南部沿海地区，其影响有4个月的滞后期，而在韩国中部至北方地区，其影响有5个月的滞后期。其次，详细研究了日本福冈地区SOI、PDOI、NPI、NAOI四个指数与标准化月降水量的相关关系。对于原始时间序列，这些指数和降水之间的相关性几乎为零的任何滞后时间。然而，奎 关于我们 当使用根据它们的大小被分类为五组的这些指数数据时，获得了强的统计显著相关性。特别是在某些类别下，降水与SOI、NPI有很高的相关系数，但有一定的滞后时间。第三，利用动力系统理论研究了SOI与福冈标准化温度和降水资料联合相空间特征的方法。从结果可以看出，这三个调查变量之间的联合关系是复杂的，没有明显的线性关系。该方法可作为联合相关变量的确定性动力学的基础。此外，还对福冈市8月降雨量进行了中期预报。选择海表温度（SST）距平和三个海气指数作为候选预报因子。结果发现，NPI和选定的SST作为输入的模型表现相当不错。少

First, simple but robust approaches were used to reveal the quantitative and statistically significant influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on monthly precipitation at five stations distributed over South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. The monthly precipitation data were transformed into non-exceedence probability time series. SOI is classified into five categories. The spatial distribution of ENSO influence is obtained from the correlation results. The monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan is generally influenced by La Nina events. The influence has a four-month lag time in the southern coastal area, and a five-month lag for the middle to northern area of South Korea.Second, the cross-correlations between four indices of SOI, PDOI, NPI, NAOI and normally standardized monthly precipitation in Fukuoka are investigated in detail. For the original time series, the correlations between those indices and precipitation are almost zero for any lag times. However, qui … More te strong statistically significant correlations are obtained when using those indices data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, very high correlation coefficients are obtained between precipitation and SOI, NPI with some lag times under some categories.Third, a methodology to investigate joint phase space characteristics of SOI and the standardized temperature and precipitation data in Fukuoka was studied byusing ideas from dynamical systems theory. From the results, it can thus be said that the joint relationships between the three investigated variables are complex with no obvious linear relationships. The methodology may serve as a basis for deterministic dynamics of jointly interrelated variables.Further, the medium term forecasting of August rainfall in Fukuoka city was conducted. As the candidate predictors, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and three atmospheric-oceanic indices are selected. It was found that a model with the NPI and selected SST as inputs performed reasonably well. Less