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Construction of Precipitation Forecasting Model in Asia-Pacific Region using Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices

利用大气-海洋指数构建亚太地区降水预报模型

基本信息

批准号：
15600003
负责人：
KAWAMURA Akira
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
TOKYO METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY (2004-2005)Kyushu University (2003)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

First, simple but robust approaches were used to reveal the quantitative and statistically significant influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on monthly precipitation at five stations distributed over South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. The monthly precipitation data were transformed into non-exceedence probability time series. SOI is classified into five categories. The spatial distribution of ENSO influence is obtained from the correlation results. The monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan is generally influenced by La Nina events. The influence has a four-month lag time in the southern coastal area, and a five-month lag for the middle to northern area of South Korea.Second, the cross-correlations between four indices of SOI, PDOI, NPI, NAOI and normally standardized monthly precipitation in Fukuoka are investigated in detail. For the original time series, the correlations between those indices and precipitation are almost zero for any lag times. However, qui … More te strong statistically significant correlations are obtained when using those indices data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, very high correlation coefficients are obtained between precipitation and SOI, NPI with some lag times under some categories.Third, a methodology to investigate joint phase space characteristics of SOI and the standardized temperature and precipitation data in Fukuoka was studied byusing ideas from dynamical systems theory. From the results, it can thus be said that the joint relationships between the three investigated variables are complex with no obvious linear relationships. The methodology may serve as a basis for deterministic dynamics of jointly interrelated variables.Further, the medium term forecasting of August rainfall in Fukuoka city was conducted. As the candidate predictors, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and three atmospheric-oceanic indices are selected. It was found that a model with the NPI and selected SST as inputs performed reasonably well. Less

首先，使用简单但稳健的方法揭示了南方涛动指数（SOI）对分布在韩国和日本福冈的五个站点的月降水量的定量和统计显着影响。将月降水量数据转化为不超标概率时间序列。 SOI分为五类。根据相关结果得到ENSO影响的空间分布。韩国和日本福冈的月降水量普遍受到拉尼娜事件的影响。其影响在南部沿海地区有4个月的滞后时间，在韩国中北部地区有5个月的滞后时间。其次，详细研究了SOI、PDOI、NPI、NAOI 4个指数与福冈市正常标准化月降水量之间的互相关性。对于原始时间序列，对于任何滞后时间，这些指数与降水之间的相关性几乎为零。然而，当使用根据其大小分为五组的指数数据时，获得了很强的统计显着相关性。特别是降水与SOI、NPI之间存在很高的相关系数，并且在某些类别下存在一定的滞后时间。第三，运用动力系统理论的思想，研究了SOI与福冈市标准化气温和降水数据联合相空间特征的研究方法。从结果来看，三个研究变量之间的联合关系很复杂，没有明显的线性关系。该方法可以作为联合相关变量的确定性动态的基础。此外，对福冈市八月降雨量进行了中期预测。选择海面温度（SST）异常和三个大气-海洋指数作为候选预测变量。结果发现，使用 NPI 并选择 SST 作为输入的模型表现相当不错。较少的