Construction of Precipitation Forecasting Model in Asia-Pacific Region using Atmospheric-Oceanic Indices

首先，使用简单但稳健的方法揭示了南方涛动指数(SOI)对分布在韩国和日本福冈的五个站的月降水量的定量和统计上的显著影响。将月降水量数据转化为非超越概率时间序列。SOI分为五类。由相关结果得到了ENSO影响的空间分布。韩国和日本福冈的月降水量普遍受到拉尼娜事件的影响。在南部沿海地区有4个月的滞后时间，在韩国中北部地区有5个月的滞后。其次，详细分析了SOI、PDOI、NPI、NAOI四个指数与福冈正常标准化月降水量之间的相互关系。对于原始时间序列，在任何滞后时间内，这些指数与降水量之间的相关性几乎为零。然而，Qui…将这些指数按其大小分为5组，得到了更强的统计相关性。特别是降水量与SOI和NPI之间的相关系数很高，在某些类别下具有一定的滞后时间。再次，利用动力系统理论的思想，研究了SOI与福冈标准化气温和降水数据的联合相空间特征。从结果可以看出，三个被调查变量之间的联合关系是复杂的，没有明显的线性关系。该方法可作为联合相关变量确定性动态分析的基础。此外，对福冈市8月降雨量进行了中期预报。选择海表温度异常和3个大气海洋指数作为候选预报因子。研究发现，以NPI和选定的SST作为输入的模型表现得相当好。较少

First, simple but robust approaches were used to reveal the quantitative and statistically significant influence of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on monthly precipitation at five stations distributed over South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan. The monthly precipitation data were transformed into non-exceedence probability time series. SOI is classified into five categories. The spatial distribution of ENSO influence is obtained from the correlation results. The monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan is generally influenced by La Nina events. The influence has a four-month lag time in the southern coastal area, and a five-month lag for the middle to northern area of South Korea.Second, the cross-correlations between four indices of SOI, PDOI, NPI, NAOI and normally standardized monthly precipitation in Fukuoka are investigated in detail. For the original time series, the correlations between those indices and precipitation are almost zero for any lag times. However, qui … More te strong statistically significant correlations are obtained when using those indices data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, very high correlation coefficients are obtained between precipitation and SOI, NPI with some lag times under some categories.Third, a methodology to investigate joint phase space characteristics of SOI and the standardized temperature and precipitation data in Fukuoka was studied byusing ideas from dynamical systems theory. From the results, it can thus be said that the joint relationships between the three investigated variables are complex with no obvious linear relationships. The methodology may serve as a basis for deterministic dynamics of jointly interrelated variables.Further, the medium term forecasting of August rainfall in Fukuoka city was conducted. As the candidate predictors, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and three atmospheric-oceanic indices are selected. It was found that a model with the NPI and selected SST as inputs performed reasonably well. Less