Impact of Climatic Variation on Water Resources by Southern Oscillation Index Analysis

南方涛动指数分析气候变化对水资源的影响

• 批准号: 10650510
• 负责人: KAWAMURA Akira
• 金额: $ 1.98万
• 依托单位: KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10650510/
• 关键词: Southern Oscillation Index; SOI; Precipitation; Temperature; Fukuoka; Correlation; カオス; 相関次元; リアプノフ指数; 位相空間

The impacts of Southern Oscillation (SO) on climate are widespread and extend far beyond the tropical Pacific. However, the concrete influence is not so clear, especially in middle to high latitudes, including Japan.First, the monthly time series of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is anarysed to examine its chaotic characteristics. Three schemes, moving average, low-pass filter and nonlinear smoothing, were used to reduce noise and enhance chaotic properties. No significant signs of chaotic behavior were found for either the noise-reduced SOI time series or the raw one. Although it contains long-term periodicity, the SOI time series is considered to be stchastic rather than chaotic from the view point of dynamical systems theory.Second, the cross-correlation between monthly values of on one hand SOI and on the other hand normally standardized precipitation and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated in detail using 109 years of data. For the original time series, no significant direct correlation between SOI and precipitation/temperature in Fukuoka is detected. However, statistically significant correlation coefficients are obtained when using SOI data categorized into five groups according to their magnitudes. In particular, the highest correlation coefficients, which are statistically significant at 1 % level, are obtained for both precipitation and temperature data. The stronger the La Nina event, the less precipitation and the lower temperature in Fukuoka 4 months later.Further, general statistical characteristics of SOI and the data from which it is derived (i.e. mean sea level pressure data at Tahiti and Darwin) are presented as guidance when using SOI for other analyses. The characteristics include the availability of the barometric pressurc data, statistics of monthly pressure data, correlation of SO intensity, frequency analysis of SOI by magnitude and by month (January-December), duration properties of SOI by run analysis.

南方涛动（SO）对气候的影响是广泛的，远远超出了热带太平洋。但具体的影响并不明显，尤其是在中高纬度地区，包括日本。首先，分析了南方涛动指数（SOI）的月时间序列，考察了其混沌特征。采用滑动平均、低通滤波和非线性平滑三种方法来降低噪声，增强混沌特性。没有显着的迹象，混沌行为被发现无论是噪声降低SOI时间序列或原始的。虽然SOI时间序列具有长期的周期性，但从动力系统理论的观点来看，SOI时间序列是随机的，而不是混沌的。其次，利用日本福冈109年的资料，详细研究了SOI月值与标准化降水和温度月值之间的互相关。对于原始的时间序列，没有显着的直接相关性之间的SOI和福冈的降水/温度检测。然而，统计上显着的相关系数时，获得使用SOI数据分为五组，根据其幅度。特别是，最高的相关系数，这是统计上显着的1%的水平，获得了降水和温度数据。此外，本文还介绍了SOI的一般统计特征及其来源资料（塔希提岛和达尔文平均海平面气压资料），以指导SOI的应用。这些特征包括气压资料的可利用性、月气压资料的统计、SO强度的相关性、SOI的震级和月（1 ~ 12月）频率分析、SOI的历时特性分析等。

项目成果

Kawamura, A.: "Chaotic characteristics of the Southern Oscillation Index time series."Journal of Hydrology. 204. 168-181 (1998)

Kawamura, A.：“南方涛动指数时间序列的混沌特征。”水文学杂志。

Kawamura A.: "Statistical Characteristics of Southern Oscillation Index and Its Barometric Pressure Data."Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE. 43. (2001)

Kawamura A.：“南方涛动指数及其气压数据的统计特征。”水利工程学年刊，JSCE。

Kawamura,A.: "Development of Intergrated Decision Support System for the Water Supply System in Fukuoka, Japan."Hand book & Proceedings of the Water 99 Joint Congress. 1. 341-347 (1999)

Kawamura,A.：“日本福冈供水系统综合决策支持系统的开发”手册

Merabtene T.: "Decision support system for optimal drought management of Fukuoka City water resources : Application to the 1994/95 drought conditions."Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE. 43. 157-162 (1999)

Merabtene T.：“福冈市水资源优化干旱管理的决策支持系统：在 1994/95 干旱条件下的应用。”水利工程学年刊，JSCE。

Kawamura A.: "Cross-Correlation Between Southern Oscillation Index and Precipitation/Temperature in Fukuoka, Japan."IHP-V Technical Document in Hydrology No.7 UNESCO Jakarta Office 2000. 7. 32-39 (2000)

Kawamura A.：“日本福冈南方涛动指数与降水/温度之间的交叉相关性。”IHP-V 水文学技术文件第 7 号联合国教科文组织雅加达办事处 2000. 7. 32-39 (2000)