Basic Research on the Transformation of Market Structure

市场结构转型的基础研究

• 批准号: 16530123
• 负责人: ONOZAKI Tamotsu
• 金额: $ 2.24万
• 依托单位: Aomori Public College (2005)Asahikawa University (2004)
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2005
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16530123/
• 关键词: monopolistic competition; oligopoly; complex adaptive system; bounded rationality; simulation; 市場構造; 独占

First of all, data concerning the change in the industrial structure was collected. Though I inquired of various related groups regardless of the inside and outside Japan and examined material as far as I could do, I could not help judging, to my regret, that enough data (monthly data) does not exist to analyze changing the market structure in the statistically meaningful manner.Since the considerable time and the effort were used for the collection work of data, I had to put over theoretical model construction and concentrated only on the improvement of the simulation model. Up to now, I have introduced (1) a statistical physics technique that uses the transition probability to describe consumer behavior and (2) an algorithm of reinforcement learning to describe firm behavior.The following are regarded as future works :a)An important parameter concerning consumer's transition probability of changing firm to purchase goods is endogenized so as to be affected by the advertisement of firms.b)Learning processes of agents are introduced or refined so that they behave more intellectually (but in the boundedly rational manner).c)The branding strategy through an advertising investment etc. is incorporated.

首先，收集了有关产业结构变化的数据。虽然我询问了日本国内外的各种相关团体，并尽我所能地研究了材料，但我还是忍不住判断，令我遗憾的是，（月度数据）不存在以统计上有意义的方式分析市场结构变化的数据。由于大量的时间和精力用于数据收集工作，我不得不把理论模型的建设，只集中在模拟模型的改进。到目前为止，我已经介绍了（1）使用转移概率描述消费者行为的统计物理技术和（2）描述企业行为的强化学习算法。以下是未来的工作：a）将消费者改变厂商购买商品的转移概率的一个重要参数内生化，使其受到厂商广告的影响; B）引入或细化代理人的学习过程，使其行为更智能化（但以有限理性的方式）。c）通过广告投资等方式纳入品牌战略。