An Investigation of the Stagnation in Productivity of the Japanese Economy in the 90s Using the Hicks-Moorsteen Productivity Index

利用希克斯-莫斯汀生产率指数对上世纪 90 年代日本经济生产率停滞的调查

基本信息

批准号：
16530138
负责人：
NEMOTO Jiro
金额：
$ 0.83万
依托单位：
Nagoya University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This study develops a new decomposition analysis of productivity based on the Hicks-Moorsteen productivity index approach, and applied it to investigating the stagnation in productivity of the Japanese economy in the 90s. Unlike the standard analysis based on the Solow residuals or The Tornqvist index, the proposed decomposition analysis of productivity has an advantage that the existence of productive inefficiencies is allowed. For our purpose, this is appealing because it makes the impacts of inefficiencies on productivity measurable. Formally, we show that the Hicks-Moorsteen productivity index can be decomposed into the factors of technical advance, efficiency, scale and mix effects of inputs and outputs. The empirical analysis is conducted using three data sets : a panel on OECD 17 countries (1965-1990) including Japan, a panel on 47 Japanese prefectures (1981-2000), and time series of the Japanese macro economy and industries (1981-1998). Those results reveal some interesting aspects of productivity change in the Japanese economy. First, productivity in the 80s was still on the process of catching up the developed countries in the sense that improvement in efficiency raised the productivity toward the level of the developed countries throughout the 80s. Second, the stagnant productivity in the 90s is mainly attributable to inactive technical advance while a temporary recovery of productivity in 1996 was driven by the improvement in efficiency reflecting an increase in demand. Third, an advance in IT might raise the productivity of several sectors in the manufacturing industry in the late 90s by boosting the technical advance factor.

这项研究基于Hicks-Moorsteen生产力指数方法开发了生产力的新分解分析，并将其应用于90年代日本经济生产率的停滞。与基于Solow残差或TORNQVIST指数的标准分析不同，提议的生产力分析分析具有允许生产性低效率的存在的优势。出于我们的目的，这很有吸引力，因为它对生产率可测量的影响产生了无效的影响。正式地，我们表明，Hicks-Moorsteen生产率指数可以分解为技术进步，效率，规模和混合效应的因素。经验分析是使用三个数据集进行的：OECD 17个国家的小组（1965- 1990年），包括日本，一个日本47个小组（1981-2000）和日本宏观经济和工业的时间序列（1981-1998）。这些结果揭示了日本经济中生产率变化的一些有趣方面。首先，80年代的生产力仍在赶上发达国家的过程中，效率提高提高了整个80年代发达国家水平的生产力。其次，90年代停滞的生产力主要归因于无效的技术进步，而1996年生产率的暂时恢复是由反映需求增加的效率提高所驱动的。第三，进步可能会通过提高技术进步因素来提高90年代后期制造业的多个领域的生产率。