Exchange Rate Policy and Competition for Global FDI in Asia

本研究的目的是探讨汇率在全球FDI竞争中的作用。第一阶段的研究分为理论建模和实证分析两个部分：理论建模：假设一家日本跨国公司在两个国家投资，生产相同的产品，并以相同的技术出口回日本。生产函数是传统的Cobble道格拉斯函数。本文推导出两个FDI东道国之间的相对FDI是相对汇率的函数，而相对汇率是相对工资和资本租金的加权和。基于该模型的比较静态分析表明，如果一个FDI接收国的货币贬值，则相对更多的FDI将流入，而另一个FDI接收国的FDI流入将相对减少。实证分析：利用1981年至2002年日本对亚洲9个制造业部门的外国直接投资数据，并以中国与东盟四国（印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和泰国）的竞争为背景，对理论结论进行了检验。实证结果表明，相对汇率是决定日本制造业整体以及纺织、食品、电子、运输设备等部门的FDI流入量的重要因素。这表明，在过去的20年里，人民币贬值是一个主要因素转移日本的直接投资从东盟-4到中国。这些国家的汇率政策在动态地改变日本在亚洲的外国直接投资的地理分布方面发挥了关键作用。

The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of exchange rates in the global competition for FDI. The first stage of the research consists of two parts : theoretical modeling and empirical analysis.Theoretical modeling : in the theoretical model, a Japanese multinational firm is assumed to invest in two foreign countries, producing the same products for exporting back to Japan with same technology. The production function is a conventional Cobble Douglas function. It is derived that, the relative FDI between the two FDI hosting countries is a function of relative exchange rate, which is the weighted sum of the relative wage and capital rent. The comparative static analysis based on the model shows that, if one FDI hosting country devalues its currency, relatively more FDI will be expected while the other FDI hosting country would have relative less FDI inflows.Empirical Analysis : Using data on Japanese FDI in nine Asian manufacturing sectors from 1981 to 2002, the research also examined the theoretical conclusion in the context of the competition between China and ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). Empirical results show that the relative exchange rate is a statistically significant factor determining the relative inflows of Japanese FDI for manufacturing as a whole and for such sub-sectors as textiles, food, electronics, transportation equipment, and others. It suggests that devaluation of Chinese Yuan in the last two decades is one of the major factors diverting Japanese FDI from ASEAN-4 to China. Exchange rate polices of these countries played a critical role in dynamically reshaping the geographic distribution of Japan's FDI in Asia.