Exchange Rate, structure of Trade and Trade balance in the context of China and G-7 Countries

本研究的主要成果有：1。中国1994-2008年的总体贸易顺差100%来自加工贸易，这也决定了中国与七国集团和其他主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易平衡；2. 人民币升值不仅会减少中国的加工出口，还会减少加工进口。人民币升值对中国贸易平衡的总体影响将是有限的；此外，人民币升值只会影响中国生产的增加值，而不是所有“中国制造”产品所包含的增加值。3人民币升值的传递是不完全的。对日本从中国进口的商品价格没有传递效应；和4。目前的贸易统计数据大大夸大了中美双边贸易的不平衡。中国对美贸易顺差大部分是从第三国转移过来的。贸易统计需要改革。

The major results of this research are 1. China's overall trade surplus from 1994-2008 were attributed 100% to processing trade, which also determined China's bilateral trade balance with G-7 and other major trading partners ; 2. The appreciation of the Yuan would not only reduce China's processing exports but also processing imports. The overall effect of the Yuan's appreciation on China's trade balance would be limited ; in addition, the appreciation of the Yuan would affect only the value added produced in China NOT all value added embedded in "made-in-China" Products. 3 the pass-through of the Yuan appreciation is in-complete. There is no pass-through effect to the prices of Japanese imports from China ; and 4. Current trade statistic greatly inflates the bilateral trade imbalances between China and the US. Most of China's trade surplus with the US was transferred from third countries. Reforms in trade statistics are needed.