Heavy Precipitation Events in the Mediterranean: The Impact of Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Thermodynamic Lidar Profiles on the Analyses and Forecasts of the Pre-Convective Environment, Convection Initiation and Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation

水汽激光雷达网络同化（WaLiNeAs）项目涉及欧洲的几个研究机构。他们的专业知识相结合，以深入了解先进的热力学激光雷达系统网络的潜力，用于地中海强降水事件（HPE）的短期概率定量降水预报（PrQPF）。WaLiNeAs观测网络将从2022年9月初开始建立并运行三个月。该提案旨在加入独特的WaLiNeAs项目，并与其研究团队合作，使用霍恩海姆大学物理和气象研究所（IPM）的大气拉曼温度和湿度探测器（ARTHUS）进行热力学测量。此外，WaLiNeAs测量将应用于先进的数据同化研究，其对对流前环境，对流开始和HPE的预测的影响。该提案的首要目标是调查以下假设：在地中海的对流前环境的先进表示的热力学拉曼激光雷达系统的网络将导致1）更准确的初始化和模拟的对流前环境以及对流启动，2）在HPEs.During的PrQPF的改进WaLiNeAs活动，六个自主的水蒸气拉曼激光雷达系统将部署在整个密集观测期（IOP）的连续测量。所有的数据都将被实时收集、传播和监控。具体来说，我们将通过实现以下研究目标来检验我们的假设：I）基于WRF-NOAHMP模式系统，设计一个有效的区域性、混合型、基于集合的短期天气预报系统，用于预测地中海区域的HPE，II）通过WaLiNeAs激光雷达网络的温度和湿度廓线的数据同化，研究关于对流开始和HPE的PrQPF的预报技巧的改进，分析ARTHUS资料，并在实验期间获得湿度和温度统计数据。这些研究目标将为未来的资料同化策略和理解热力学激光雷达网络在极端事件短期预报中的重要性和密度铺平道路。这将是来自法国大气、环境、空间观测中心、法国国家气象研究中心和美国国家海洋和大气管理局的科学家的共同努力。

The Water vapor Lidar Network Assimilation (WaLiNeAs) project involves several research institutes across Europe. Their expertise is combined to get an insight into the potential of a network of advanced thermodynamic lidar systems for short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PrQPF) of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in the Mediterranean. The WaLiNeAs observation network will be set up and operated for three months from the beginning of September 2022. This proposal aims to join the unique WaLiNeAs project and to collaborate with its research team with respect to the performance of thermodynamic measurements using the Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS) of the Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM) at the University of Hohenheim. Furthermore, the WaLiNeAs measurements will be applied for advanced data assimilation studies with respect to their impact on the prediction of the pre-convective environment, convection initiation, and HPEs. The overarching goal of this proposal is to investigate the following hypotheses:An advanced representation of the pre-convective environment in the Mediterranean by a network of thermodynamic Raman lidar systems will lead to 1) a more accurate initialization and simulation of the pre-convective environment as well as convection initiation, 2) an improvement in PrQPF of HPEs.During the WaLiNeAs campaign, six autonomous water-vapor Raman lidar systems will be deployed for continuous measurements throughout the intensive observation periods (IOPs). All their data will be collected, disseminated, and monitored in real-time.Specifically, we will examine our hypotheses by attaining the following research objectives: I) Design an efficient regional, hybrid, ensemble-based, short-range weather forecast system for predicting HPEs in the Mediterranean region based on the WRF-NOAHMP model system, II) investigate the improvement of the forecast skill with respect to convection initiation and PrQPF of HPEs by data assimilation of temperature and humidity profiles from the WaLiNeAs lidar network, and III) analyze the ARTHUS data and derive moisture and temperature statistics during the experiment.These research objectives will pave the way for future data assimilation strategies and understanding of the importance and density of thermodynamic lidar networks for short-range forecasting of extreme events. This will be a joint effort of scientists from Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (LATMOS), the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) in France, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the USA.