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Construction of a universal model for casualty reduction strategies in an earthquake

构建地震伤亡减少策略通用模型

基本信息

批准号：
02044043
负责人：
OHTA Yutaka
金额：
$ 4.48万
依托单位：
University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
财政年份：
1990
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1990 至 1991
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-02044043/
关键词：
Human casualty Field survey 1976 Tangshan, China earthquake 1988 Armenia earthquake Fatality estimation model Fatality reduction strategy 死傷者予測モデル死傷者低減戦略死傷者問題

项目摘要

We carried out this two-year project to develop a decision support system for the regional safety strategies toward the reduction of earthquake casualties. We developed a universal model, which is applicable to disasters in any part of the world, for the estimation of deaths and injuries in an earthquake. In doing this, we conducted data gathering through a series of field survey and development of a computer model.We established a partnership with a research group in the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom to exchange knowledge and material needed for the development.In the first year, we carried out :1. General planning for the co-operative project : The principal investigator visited the University of Cambridge to develop a general framework for the co-operative research.2. Three field investigations : We visited China to collect the damage and reconstruction data of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Similar effort was done in the affected areas of the 1988 Armenia earthquake and th … More e 1983 Erzurm, Turkey earthquake.3. Development of general framework for the assessment model : We figured out occupants deaths in a collapsed building and their rescue process as a time related event and proposed it as a general framework of casualty assessment model.In the second year we carried out :1. Follow-up survey in China : we visited Tangshan to extend our knowledge and material. We gathered detailed data on the rescue activities in the Tangshan earthquake and the structural quality of existing buildings.2. Cooperative effort toward a building-damage model : A co-investigator of Japan side visited the Cambridge group for the development of a building-collapse model, which is to be an essential part of the entire model.3. Analysis of damage and recovery data : We continued to analyze the data on the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, the 1988 Armenia earthquake, and the 1983 Erzurm earthquake.4. Data gathering on earthquakes in Japan : We collected the damage and reconstruction data of destructive earthquakes in Japan. We included the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.5. Development of assessment models : We, first, developed two detailed frameworks for 1) a simple model applicable to post-event, rapid estimation and 2) a comprehensive model applicable to detailed evaluation of regional safety and the development of long-term strategy for the enhancement of regional safety. For the simple model, we completed a prototype and tested its performance accuracy. For the comprehensive model, we developed some element-model including ones for the description of : 1) building collapse, 2) deterioration of health status of trapped victims, and 3) rescue process. Less

我们进行了这个为期两年的项目，以开发一个决策支持系统的区域安全战略，以减少地震伤亡。我们开发了一个通用模型，适用于世界任何地方的灾害，用于估计地震中的伤亡人数。为此，我们通过一系列的实地调查和计算机模型的开发来收集数据，并与英国剑桥大学的研究小组建立了合作伙伴关系，以交流开发所需的知识和材料。第一年，我们开展了：1.合作项目的总体规划：主要研究者访问了剑桥大学，以制定合作研究的总体框架。三次实地调查：我们访问中国，收集1976年唐山地震的破坏和重建数据。在1988年亚美尼亚地震的受灾地区也进行了类似的努力， ...更多信息 e 1983年土耳其埃尔祖姆地震。评估模型总体框架的建立：将倒塌建筑物中人员的死亡及其救援过程作为一个时间相关事件，提出了人员伤亡评估模型的总体框架。在中国的后续调查：我们访问了唐山，以扩大我们的知识和材料。我们收集了有关唐山地震救援活动和现有建筑物结构质量的详细数据。为建筑物损坏模型的合作努力：日本方面的一名共同研究员访问了剑桥小组，以开发建筑物倒塌模型，该模型将成为整个模型的重要组成部分。破坏和恢复数据分析：我们继续分析了1976年唐山地震、1988年亚美尼亚地震和1983年埃尔祖姆地震的数据。日本地震数据收集：我们收集了日本破坏性地震的破坏和重建数据。我们包括1945年的三川地震和1948年的福井地震。开发评估模型：首先，我们开发了两个详细的框架：1）适用于事后快速评估的简单模型，2）适用于详细评估区域安全和制定长期战略以提高区域安全的综合模型。对于简单的模型，我们完成了一个原型，并测试了其性能的准确性。对于综合模型，我们开发了一些元素模型，包括用于描述：1）建筑物倒塌，2）被困人员健康状况恶化，3）救援过程。少