Construction of a universal model for casualty reduction strategies in an earthquake

我们开展了这个为期两年的项目，为减少地震伤亡的区域安全战略开发决策支持系统。我们开发了一个通用模型，适用于世界任何地方的灾害，用于估计地震中的伤亡人数。为此，我们通过一系列的实地调查和计算机模型的开发来收集数据。我们与英国剑桥大学的一个研究小组建立了合作伙伴关系，以交流发展所需的知识和材料。在第一年，我们进行了：1.合作项目的总体规划：首席研究员访问了剑桥大学，为合作研究制定了总体框架。三次实地考察：我们走访了中国，收集了1976年唐山地震的破坏和重建数据。在1988年亚美尼亚地震和th…的受灾地区也做了类似的努力更e 1983年土耳其埃尔祖尔姆地震。评估模型总体框架的建立：将人员在倒塌建筑物中的死亡及其救援过程作为时间相关事件，提出作为伤亡评估模型的总体框架。第二年开展了：1.中国跟踪调查：我们访问了唐山，扩大了我们的知识和材料。我们收集了关于唐山地震救援活动和既有建筑结构质量的详细数据。合作努力建立建筑物破坏模型：日方的一名合作调查员访问了剑桥小组，开发了建筑物倒塌模型，这将是整个模型的重要组成部分。损失和恢复数据分析：我们继续分析1976年唐山地震、1988年亚美尼亚地震和1983年埃尔祖姆地震的数据。日本地震数据收集：我们收集了日本破坏性地震的破坏和重建数据。其中包括1945年的宫川地震和1948年的福井地震。评估模型的发展：首先，我们为1)适用于事后快速评估的简单模型和2)适用于详细评估区域安全和制定加强区域安全的长期战略的综合模型制定了两个详细的框架。对于这个简单的模型，我们完成了一个原型，并测试了它的性能精度。对于综合模型，我们建立了一些单元模型，包括：1)建筑物倒塌，2)被困人员健康状况恶化，3)救援过程。较少

We carried out this two-year project to develop a decision support system for the regional safety strategies toward the reduction of earthquake casualties. We developed a universal model, which is applicable to disasters in any part of the world, for the estimation of deaths and injuries in an earthquake. In doing this, we conducted data gathering through a series of field survey and development of a computer model.We established a partnership with a research group in the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom to exchange knowledge and material needed for the development.In the first year, we carried out :1. General planning for the co-operative project : The principal investigator visited the University of Cambridge to develop a general framework for the co-operative research.2. Three field investigations : We visited China to collect the damage and reconstruction data of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Similar effort was done in the affected areas of the 1988 Armenia earthquake and th … More e 1983 Erzurm, Turkey earthquake.3. Development of general framework for the assessment model : We figured out occupants deaths in a collapsed building and their rescue process as a time related event and proposed it as a general framework of casualty assessment model.In the second year we carried out :1. Follow-up survey in China : we visited Tangshan to extend our knowledge and material. We gathered detailed data on the rescue activities in the Tangshan earthquake and the structural quality of existing buildings.2. Cooperative effort toward a building-damage model : A co-investigator of Japan side visited the Cambridge group for the development of a building-collapse model, which is to be an essential part of the entire model.3. Analysis of damage and recovery data : We continued to analyze the data on the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, the 1988 Armenia earthquake, and the 1983 Erzurm earthquake.4. Data gathering on earthquakes in Japan : We collected the damage and reconstruction data of destructive earthquakes in Japan. We included the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.5. Development of assessment models : We, first, developed two detailed frameworks for 1) a simple model applicable to post-event, rapid estimation and 2) a comprehensive model applicable to detailed evaluation of regional safety and the development of long-term strategy for the enhancement of regional safety. For the simple model, we completed a prototype and tested its performance accuracy. For the comprehensive model, we developed some element-model including ones for the description of : 1) building collapse, 2) deterioration of health status of trapped victims, and 3) rescue process. Less