Short-term and Medium-term Analysis of World Flow of Funds

所获得的大多数研究结果都涉及国际金融联系的计量经济和时间序列模型的组成部分，对其进行估计是本研究的最终目的。关于时间序列分析，产生了一些产出；(1)分析资产和外汇的短期均衡(2)发明检验协整和单位根的新方法，(3)分析货币和财政政策的国际协调的各个方面。在构建利率相互关系的世界模型时，对日本、美国和德国进行了简单的VAR模型估计，并期望在利率平价条件下相互联系。然而，这最后一个阶段尚未最终确定。至于美国的世界经济平衡模型，目前正在进行两项独立研究。一个是对前社会主义经济对资金需求的估计。另一个是对前社会主义经济体对更多资金需求的估计。另一个是对世界其他地区储蓄-投资缺口的估计。由于缺乏每个国家适当的投资平减指数，后一项研究目前面临汇总问题。在国际金融体系方面，已经完成了若干研究，包括国际债务危机的历史考察、日元国际化、日本资本输出的结构性变化、日本官方发展援助政策等。综上所述，我们过去两年的研究在相关领域做出了重大贡献，这可以从项目报告中包含的23篇论文中看出。但是，关于综合结果和得出政策结论的任务，今后仍有若干步骤有待采取。特别是，预期将作出进一步努力，以便对关联的VAR模型和世界IS平衡模型作出合理可靠的估计。少

Most of the research results obtained are concerned with the building blocks of the econometric and time-series model of international financial linkage, estimation of which comprises the final aim of the study.As for the time series analysis, a number of outputs were produced; (1) analysis of short-run equilibrium of assets and foreign exchange (2) invention of new methods of testing cointegration and unit root, and (3) analysis of various aspects of international coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. As for the construction of the world model of interrelationship among interest rates,simple VAR models are estimated for Japan, the US and Germany, and are expected to be linked with each other by interest rate parity conditions. This last stage is not yet finalized, however. As for the IS balance model for the world economy, two independentstudies are on-going. One is the estimation of the demand for funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of the demand for … More funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of saving-investment gap in the rest of the world. This latter study is currently saddled with the aggregation problem owing to the absence of adequate deflator of investments for each countries.With respect to the international financial system, several studies have been completed, Which includes a historical survey of international debt crisis, internationalization of yen, structural changes in Japan's capital export, and Japan's ODA policy.In sum, our research conducted in the past two years has yielded significant contributions of the related areas, which can be seen by the 23 papers contained in the report of the project. However, as to the task of integrating the results and arriving at policy conclusions, there are still several steps left to be undertaken in the future.In particular, further efforts are expected to be made in order to arrive at a reasonably reliable estimation of the linked VAR model and the world IS balance model. Less