Short-term and Medium-term Analysis of World Flow of Funds

大多数研究成果涉及国际金融联系的计量经济学和时间序列模型的基石，其估计是研究的最终目标。至于时间序列分析，产生了一些输出：(1)资产和外汇的短期均衡分析(2)发明检验协整和单位根的新方法，(3)货币和财政政策国际协调的各个方面的分析。至于利率相互关系的世界模型的构建，估计了日本、美国和德国的简单VAR模型，并预计将通过利率平价条件相互联系。然而，最后一个阶段还没有最后敲定。至于世界经济的IS平衡模型，两项独立的研究正在进行中。一个是对前社会主义经济体对资金需求的估计。二是对…需求量的预测来自前社会主义经济体的更多资金。另一个问题是对世界其他地区储蓄-投资缺口的估计。在国际金融体系方面，已经完成了几项研究，包括对国际债务危机、日元国际化、日本资本输出的结构变化以及日本官方发展援助政策的历史考察。总而言之，我们过去两年进行的研究在相关领域做出了重大贡献，这可以从项目报告中包含的23篇论文中看出。然而，关于综合结果和得出政策结论的任务，未来仍有几个步骤有待完成，特别是预计还需要进一步努力，以得出对关联VAR模型和世界平衡模型的合理可靠估计。较少

Most of the research results obtained are concerned with the building blocks of the econometric and time-series model of international financial linkage, estimation of which comprises the final aim of the study.As for the time series analysis, a number of outputs were produced; (1) analysis of short-run equilibrium of assets and foreign exchange (2) invention of new methods of testing cointegration and unit root, and (3) analysis of various aspects of international coordination of monetary and fiscal policy. As for the construction of the world model of interrelationship among interest rates,simple VAR models are estimated for Japan, the US and Germany, and are expected to be linked with each other by interest rate parity conditions. This last stage is not yet finalized, however. As for the IS balance model for the world economy, two independentstudies are on-going. One is the estimation of the demand for funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of the demand for … More funds by the ex-socialist economies. Another is the estimation of saving-investment gap in the rest of the world. This latter study is currently saddled with the aggregation problem owing to the absence of adequate deflator of investments for each countries.With respect to the international financial system, several studies have been completed, Which includes a historical survey of international debt crisis, internationalization of yen, structural changes in Japan's capital export, and Japan's ODA policy.In sum, our research conducted in the past two years has yielded significant contributions of the related areas, which can be seen by the 23 papers contained in the report of the project. However, as to the task of integrating the results and arriving at policy conclusions, there are still several steps left to be undertaken in the future.In particular, further efforts are expected to be made in order to arrive at a reasonably reliable estimation of the linked VAR model and the world IS balance model. Less