Projections and Policy Implication of Supply and Demand

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Rice is the dominant staple food crop and the most important agricultural product in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Preserving rice self-sufficiency has been the important objective of agricultural policy, and the rice sector has been strongly protected economically and politically in these three countries. Due to acceptance of the GATT Uruguay Round agreement in 1995, Japan and South Korea partially opened their rice market. Taiwan is not a member of the GATT,but it is seeking GATT membership. The most likely terms to be agreed upon for rice is said to be similar to the Japanese arrangement. On the other hand, the U.S.rice sector is going to experience a big change under the WTO and the 1996 farm bill.There are five major objectives in this study : first, to investigate government programs implemented to improve production efficiency and reduce production costs in rice ; second, to analyze the factors that caused a decrease in per capita rice consumption ; third, to identify factors … More to increas rice production while analyzing growth accounting and estimate rice production in the future ; fourth, to project supply and demand in each country for the next fifteen years and develop policy scenarios based on the estimates ; and the last, to investigate the U.S.rice supply and demand situation and its export potential to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan in the next fifteen years.The major conclusions related to future supply and demand balance of rice are as follows :1.Because of the minimum access rice import, declining rice consumption, and yield growth, the rice diversion program will need to be expanded in Japan.2.The annual supply/demand balance of rice is predicted to be negative during the period 1995-2010, and South Korea may have to start importing some more rice in addition to the minimum access import at the end of the 1990s.3.Although Taiwan has been exporting some rice, rice production will start declining due to the decrease in rice area harvested, and will become a rice importer in the future.4.Because of the cut back in export subsidies and agricultural budget, rice production and rice exports of the U.S.are likely to decrease. Less