Projections and Policy Implication of Supply and Demand

供需预测及政策影响

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    06041074
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    日本
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
  • 财政年份:
    1994
  • 资助国家:
    日本
  • 起止时间:
    1994 至 1996
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Rice is the dominant staple food crop and the most important agricultural product in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Preserving rice self-sufficiency has been the important objective of agricultural policy, and the rice sector has been strongly protected economically and politically in these three countries. Due to acceptance of the GATT Uruguay Round agreement in 1995, Japan and South Korea partially opened their rice market. Taiwan is not a member of the GATT,but it is seeking GATT membership. The most likely terms to be agreed upon for rice is said to be similar to the Japanese arrangement. On the other hand, the U.S.rice sector is going to experience a big change under the WTO and the 1996 farm bill.There are five major objectives in this study : first, to investigate government programs implemented to improve production efficiency and reduce production costs in rice ; second, to analyze the factors that caused a decrease in per capita rice consumption ; third, to identify factors … More to increas rice production while analyzing growth accounting and estimate rice production in the future ; fourth, to project supply and demand in each country for the next fifteen years and develop policy scenarios based on the estimates ; and the last, to investigate the U.S.rice supply and demand situation and its export potential to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan in the next fifteen years.The major conclusions related to future supply and demand balance of rice are as follows :1.Because of the minimum access rice import, declining rice consumption, and yield growth, the rice diversion program will need to be expanded in Japan.2.The annual supply/demand balance of rice is predicted to be negative during the period 1995-2010, and South Korea may have to start importing some more rice in addition to the minimum access import at the end of the 1990s.3.Although Taiwan has been exporting some rice, rice production will start declining due to the decrease in rice area harvested, and will become a rice importer in the future.4.Because of the cut back in export subsidies and agricultural budget, rice production and rice exports of the U.S.are likely to decrease. Less
大米是日本、韩国和台湾的主要粮食作物和最重要的农产品。保持大米自给自足一直是农业政策的重要目标,在这三个国家,大米部门在经济和政治上都得到了强有力的保护。由于1995年接受关贸总协定乌拉圭回合协议,日本和韩国部分开放了大米市场。台湾不是关贸总协定的成员,但它正在申请加入关贸总协定。最有可能就大米达成一致的条款据说类似于日本的安排。另一方面,在世贸组织和1996年农业法案下,美国大米行业将经历一场巨大的变化。本研究的主要目标有五个:第一,调查政府为提高大米生产效率和降低生产成本而实施的计划;第二,分析导致人均大米消费量下降的因素;第三,确定影响因素…更多的是在分析增长核算和估计未来水稻产量的同时增加水稻产量;第四,预测每个国家未来15年的供需情况,并根据估计制定政策情景;与未来大米供需平衡有关的主要结论如下:1.由于最低准入大米进口,大米消费量下降,产量增长,日本需要扩大大米分流计划。2.预计1995-2010年大米年供需平衡为负,3.虽然台湾一直在出口一些大米,但由于稻米面积的减少,大米产量将开始下降,未来将成为大米进口国。4.由于出口补贴和农业预算的削减,美国的大米产量和大米出口可能会减少。较少

项目成果

期刊论文数量(18)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Kuroda, Yoshimi.: "Research and Extension Expenditures and Productivity in Japanese Agriculture, 1960-90." Agricultural Economics. Vol.14, (in the press.). (1997)
Kuroda, Yoshimi.:“日本农业的研究和推广支出及生产力,1960-90 年”。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
  • 通讯作者:
加古敏之: "「韓国の経済発展と米生産構造の変化」山本裕美編『アジア農業の持続的発展-市場化と制度・組織の進化-』" アジア経済研究所, 228 (1996)
Toshiyuki Kako:“‘韩国的经济发展和稻米生产结构的变化’,山本博美编辑,‘亚洲农业的可持续发展——市场化与机构和组织的演变’”发展中经济研究所,228(1996)
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  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
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  • 通讯作者:
Greenwalk,Bert: "How will Quality Demands Affect the Rice Marketing Structure" Rice Farming. 29. 10-10 (1995)
Greenwalk,Bert:“质量需求将如何影响大米营销结构”水稻种植。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
  • 通讯作者:
Wailes J.Eric, Cramer L.Gail, Chavez Eddie, James Hansen: Arkansas Agricultural Experiment station. Baseline Projections of Global Rice Trade, Production, Consumption and Price for 1996-2010, 1-130 (1996)
Wailes J.Eric、Cramer L.Gail、Chavez Eddie、James Hansen:阿肯色州农业实验站。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
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KAKO Toshiyuki其他文献

KAKO Toshiyuki的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('KAKO Toshiyuki', 18)}}的其他基金

A Study on the Development Process of Rice Industry in Heilongjiang Province
黑龙江省水稻产业发展历程研究
  • 批准号:
    22405032
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
A study about reform of the agricultural administration of the local government by using policy evaluation
利用政策评价对地方政府农业行政管理改革进行研究
  • 批准号:
    17580197
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Research of the establishment of policy evaluation system of agricultural policy at local government
地方政府农业政策评价体系建立研究
  • 批准号:
    15580195
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Agricultural Research and Extension in the time of Globalization
全球化时代的农业研究与推广
  • 批准号:
    08660269
  • 财政年份:
    1996
  • 资助金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

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  • 批准号:
    2333801
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    2023
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    $ 16.26万
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    Cooperative Agreement
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    10572541
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    2023
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Understanding supply and demand for heme in cells
了解细胞中血红素的供应和需求
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    BB/W007908/1
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    2023
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Research from both sides of energy supply and demand for decarbonization scenarios in Asia
亚洲脱碳情景能源供需双方研究
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    22H03816
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用于研究可再生能源路径的城市规模电力供需模型
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    2022
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与稻米供需经济有关的营养、文化和农艺因素的长期分析
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  • 财政年份:
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    $ 16.26万
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组蛋白的供应和需求:刀刃上的生命
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    RGPIN-2019-05796
  • 财政年份:
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缩小心脏移植供需差距
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    10396268
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Understanding supply and demand for heme in cells
了解细胞中血红素的供应和需求
  • 批准号:
    BB/W007630/1
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 16.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
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通过数学模型预测献血者的供需情况
  • 批准号:
    22K10556
  • 财政年份:
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  • 资助金额:
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