Storm surges prediction in terms of a typhoon model which includes effects of land topography and roughness

风暴潮模拟在大阪湾等被山脉包围的小封闭盆地中是困难的--特别是在风场预测或模拟中，受复杂的陆地地形影响。藤田台风模式传统上被用来估算日本的台风风场。Yoshizumi(1968)提出了一个台风风场模式，该模式描述了移动中的台风中的低层风，并考虑了表面摩擦。用它来估算考虑摩擦影响的台风风场。由于Yoshizumi模型所描述的风场不包括陆地地形的影响，在本研究中，我们引入了质量守恒模型来考虑陆地地形引起的风速减速和加速的影响。采用对称压力型的Schloemer方程表示风暴潮的压力场，并通过风暴潮数值模拟研究了风暴潮预报模式的发展。通过9426、6523和6118号台风在大阪湾引发的风暴潮、伊势湾的伊势旺台风的事后直播，检验了该模型的有效性。

Storm surge simulation in small closed basins surrounded by mountains such as Osaka Bay is difficult-especially in the wind field prediction or simulation, which is affected by complex land topography. Fujita's typhoon model has been traditionally employed for the estimation of typhoon fields in Japan.Yoshizumi (1968) proposed a typhoon wind field model which describes the lower-layr winds in a moving typhoon with consideration of surface friction. It is employed here to estimate the typhoon wind field taking into account the effect of friction. As the wind field described by Yoshizumi's model does not include the effect of land topography, we introduce the 'MASCON' (mass conservation) model to take into account the effects of deceleration and acceleration of wind velocity due to land topography, in this research.This is a new model of typhoon wind field which is developed here by combining the Yoshizumi's and MASCON models. The pressure field is formulated by Schloemer's equation which assumes a symmetric pressure pattern.A study on advancement in numerical models for storm surge prediction was carried out by means of numerical simulations of storm surges in which new model of typhoon wind field (MASCON-Y Model) was employed. Its validity was examined by hindcast of storm surges caused by Typhoons 9426,6523 and 6118 in Osaka Bay, the Isewan Typhoon in Ise Bay.