Water Exchange Mechanism and Red Tide Prediction in the Tanabe Bay

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Disaster Prevention Research Institute(DPRI), Kyoto University has run this research project in partnership with Fisheries Laboratory of Kinki University (FISH LABO) and Shirahama Fisherman's Association to predict red tide in the Tanabe Bay. DPRI has monitoring facilities for sea states and FISH LABO has fish farming facilities in the same bay. Collaboration between these research institutes and the fishermen's society in the Tanabe Bay established a red tide prediction system as well as water quality, water circulation system and ecosystem monitoring, in this project. The followings are the main results and activities of the project.(1)Water Exchange Prediction Model : Quasi-three-dimensional numerical model for water circulation in the bay was constructed with improving POM code, where scalar transport equations were solved with TVD scheme in z-coordinates and current dynamics equations were integrated in sigma-coordinate.(2)Water Quality and Plankton Blooming : Intensive observations of plankton cells and physical, chemical and biological water qualities in summer were conducted for four years 1998-2001 by using the telemetry of Storm Surge Observation Tower and fish farming rafts. Profile measurements of water qualities and plankton cells were also conducted by observation ship in whole area of the bay.(3)A real time prediction system of phytoplankton density in the inner part of the Tanabe Bay was established with combination of coastal environmental telemetry and artificial neural network (ANN). The used learning system is the back-propagation model. Observation data and output data (cell concentration of diatoms and dinoflagellates) in 1999 and 2000 was employed for a learning of ANN. Prediction in 2001 made clear that input data of temperature, salinity, solar radiation and air temperature (dissolved oxygen) are included, the prediction system is improved.(4)All data measured in this project can be distributed with CD-ROM.