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Optimal Exchange Rate Systems and International Coordination in East Asia

东亚最优汇率制度与国际协调

基本信息

批准号：
12630096
负责人：
OGAWA Eiji
金额：
$ 1.98万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12630096/
关键词：
Exchange Rate System Exchange Rate Policy Two-country model Coordination Failure Dollar Peg Currency Basket System 国際協調

项目摘要

This research project extended a model of Ito, Ogawa, and Sasaki (1998), which analyzed an optimal currency basket system by taking into account trade of ASEAN countries with Japan and the United States, into a theoretical model that considers intra-regional trade in the ASEAN. Characteristics of the theoretical model include one that we introduced the intra-regional trade in the ASEAN to explain explicitly policy reaction functions of two countries in the ASEAN. In the theoretical model, we supposed that the monetary authorities of two countries in the ASEAN had a policy objective of stabilizing fluctuations in trade balances for their exchange rate policy. They adjust weights on the US dollar and the Japanese yen in a currency basket for the objective. Its analytical result shows a possibility that one country cannot adopt an optimal currency basket system but a dollar peg system when the other country adopts the dollar peg system. It implies that all of the countries might be faced with "coordination failure" in choosing their exchange rate system.We used data on ASEAN 5 countries, China, and Korea to conduct an empirical analysis on the possibility of "coordination failure" in exchange rate policy. We empirically analyzed the possibility of "coordination failure" by comparing the monetary authorities' losses in a case of adopting an optimal exchange rate system with those in a case of adopting the dollar peg system, given that the neighboring countries adopt the dollar peg system. We obtained some possibilities of "coordination failure" in exchange rate policy. It suggest a policy implication that international coordination in exchange rate policy is important in order to depart from the coordination failure.

本研究将伊藤、小川、佐佐木（1998）的模型（考虑了东盟各国与日本、美国的贸易，分析了最优的货币篮子制度），扩展为考虑东盟内部贸易的理论模型。该理论模型的特点是引入了东盟区域内贸易的概念，明确地解释了东盟两个国家的政策反应函数。在理论模型中，我们假设东盟两个国家的货币当局的汇率政策目标是稳定贸易收支的波动。他们调整美元和日元在货币篮子中的权重。分析结果表明，当一国实行钉住美元制时，另一国可能不采用最优的货币篮子制，而采用钉住美元制。我们使用东盟5国、中国和韩国的数据，对汇率政策“协调失败”的可能性进行了实证分析。在周边国家实行钉住美元制的情况下，通过比较采用最优汇率制和钉住美元制时的货币当局的损失，对“协调失败”的可能性进行了实证分析。我们得出了汇率政策“协调失败”的一些可能性。本文的政策含义是，为了避免协调失灵，汇率政策的国际协调是重要的。