Possibilities and Scopes of International Monetary Cooperation in East Asia

本研究课题以东亚地区的国际货币合作为研究对象，探讨为重建健全的国际金融体系而采用的汇率制度的协调失败问题。为了解决协调失灵的问题，东亚各国有必要采用共同货币篮子体系。本研究使用了“广义购买力平价模型”，对明确引入锚货币的最优货币区进行了实证分析。利用误差修正模型研究了东亚各国货币对美元、日元、欧元等货币篮子的汇率平稳性，并在国际会议上进行了介绍（2003年3月27日至28日在吉隆坡举行的澳大利亚国立大学会议; 2003年9月19日至20日在东京举行的亚太经济论坛会议; 2003年11月3日在首尔举行的韩国国际环境方案研讨会; 2003年12月9日在春川举行的第五次亚洲危机会议），以改进分析方法。根据基于广义购买力平价模型的分析结果，笔者提出了一个政策建议：东亚各国货币当局应建立一个具有最优权重的共同货币篮子，以便东亚各国参与区域货币合作。

This research project investigated international monetary cooperation in East Asia by focusing on coordination failure in adopting exchange rate systems for rebuilding a robust international financial system. It is necessary to adopt a common currency basket system in East Asian countries for solving the coordination failure. This research project used a "generalized purchasing power parity model" that help us to conduct empirical analysis about an optimum currency area with explicitly introducing anchor currency. The error correction model was used to investigate stationarities of exchange rates of East Asian currencies in terms of currency baskets of the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro.I made presentation of the analytical results in some international conferences (ANU Conference @Kuala Lumpur, 27-28 March, 2003 ; APEF Conference @Tokyo, 19-20 September, 2003 ; KIEP seminar @Seoul, 3 November, 2003 ; Asian Crisis V Conference @Chuncheon, 9 December, 2003) to refine the analytical methodology. I made a policy proposal from the analytical results based on the generalized purchasing power parity model : It is proposed that the monetary authorities in East Asian countries should create a common currency basket with an optimal basket weights in order to participate in a regional monetary cooperation for many of East Asian countries.