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Development of Monitoring System for Avoiding Confused Software Projects

开发避免软件项目混乱的监控系统

基本信息

批准号：
12680347
负责人：
KIKUNO Tohru
金额：
$ 2.05万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12680347/
关键词：
Risk management Software project Muitivariate regression model Project management Factor analysis Cluster analysis WWW ロジスティック回帰モデル

项目摘要

During the process of software development, project managers often find indications that projects are risky and take appropriate actions to recover them from this dangerous status.If project managers fail to detect such risks, it is possible that such projects may collapse completely. Thus, monitoring technique to avoid such confuse projects becomes necessary requirements for successful software developmet.In this research, we firstly propose a new scheme for the characterization of confused projects based on an evaluation by the project manager. In order to acquire the relevant data to make such an assessment, we designed a questionnaire from five viewpoints. We then analyzed the responses to the questionnaires as provided by project managers by applying a logistic regression analysis. The experimental results using actual project data showed that the proposed characterizing scheme can be the first step toward predicting confused projects at an early phase of the development.Secondly, we investigated the relations between responses of the questionnaire and the cost and the duration of software projects. By the factor analysis, we reconstructed the items of questionnaire into several essential factors that include more important information. Using the reconstructed factors, we can successfully estimate the cost and duration of projects.Thirdly, in order to improve the accuracy of the first approach, we introduce the cluster analysis into the prediction of confused projects. In this research, we proposed a procedure to predict confused projects based on the analogy of the responses of questionnaire. Experimental evaluation showed that the accuracy of prediction is better than that of first approach.

在软件开发过程中，项目经理经常会发现项目存在风险的迹象，并采取适当的措施将项目从这种危险状态中恢复过来，如果项目经理未能发现这些风险，那么这些项目就有可能完全崩溃。因此，监控技术，以避免这种混乱的项目成为必要的要求，成功的软件developmentmet。在这项研究中，我们首先提出了一个新的方案，由项目经理的评估的基础上表征混乱的项目。为了获得相关数据进行这样的评估，我们设计了一个调查问卷，从五个角度。然后，我们分析了项目经理提供的问卷调查的答复，通过应用逻辑回归分析。使用实际项目数据的实验结果表明，所提出的表征方案可以在开发的早期阶段预测混乱的项目的第一步。其次，我们调查了问卷的响应和软件项目的成本和持续时间之间的关系。通过因子分析，我们将问卷的项目重组为包含更多重要信息的几个要素。再次，为了提高第一种方法的预测精度，本文将聚类分析引入到模糊项目的预测中。在本研究中，我们提出了一个基于问卷响应类比的混淆项目预测程序。实验结果表明，该方法的预测精度优于第一种方法。