Between Path Dependence and Path Creation: The Impact of Farmers' Behavior and Policies on Structural Change in Agriculture

路径依赖与路径创造之间：农民行为和政策对农业结构变迁的影响

• 批准号: 53162877
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Alfons Balmann
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Leibniz-Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien (IAMO)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2006-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/53162877?language=en
• 关键词: Between; Path; Dependence; Creation; Impact

Farm structures are often characterized by regional heterogeneity, agglomeration effects, sub-optimal farm sizes and income disparities. The main objective of this study is to analyze whether this is a result of path dependent structural change, what the determinants of path dependence are, and how it may be overcome. The focus is on the German dairy sector which has been highly regulated and subsidized in the past and faces severe structural deficits. The future of this sector in the process of an ongoing liberalization will be analyzed by applying theoretical concepts of path dependence and path breaking. In these regards, key issues are the actual situation, technological and market trends as well as agricultural policies. The methodology will be based on a participative use of the agent-based model AgriPoliS and participatory laboratory experiments. On the one hand, AgriPoliS will be tested as a tool for stakeholder oriented analysis of mechanisms, trends and policy effects. This part aims to analyze whether and how path dependence of structural change can be overcome on a sector level. In a second part, AgriPoliS will be extended such that human players (farmers, students) can take over the role of agents in the model. This part aims to compare human agents with computer agents in order to overcome single farm path dependence.

农场结构的特点往往是区域异质性、聚集效应、次优农场规模和收入差距。本研究的主要目的是分析这是否是路径依赖结构变化的结果，路径依赖的决定因素是什么，以及如何克服它。重点是德国乳制品行业，该行业过去受到高度监管和补贴，面临严重的结构性赤字。将通过应用路径依赖和路径突破的理论概念来分析这一部门在正在进行的自由化进程中的未来。在这些方面，关键问题是实际情况、技术和市场趋势以及农业政策。该方法将以参与性使用基于代理的模型AgriPolis和参与性实验室实验为基础。一方面，AgriPolis将作为一种工具进行测试，用于对机制、趋势和政策效果进行面向利益攸关方的分析。这一部分旨在分析是否以及如何在部门层面上克服结构变化的路径依赖。在第二部分中，AgriPolis将被扩展，以便人类参与者（农民，学生）可以接管模型中代理的角色。这一部分的目的是比较人类代理与计算机代理，以克服单一的农场路径依赖。