A study on the estimation of person trip variations in a hypothetical earthquake : A path-dependence approach

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Based on the analysis of existing concepts concerning person trips and by using original survey data collected between 2001 and 2009, this study proposes new ways to estimate various person trips after earthquakes. In previous studies, researchers, by a static method, have estimated travel demands on return-home trips (RHTs) after the occurrence of an earthquake. In contrast to such a method, in the new interpretation of this data, RHT travel demand will be assessed using novel concepts, including dynamic trips, simulations of sudden earthquake occurrences (at 5-minute intervals), enhanced details featuring five locations between origins and destinations, and the path dependencies of 16 types of response trips. By using GIS, variations of person trips on a hypothetical earthquake can be more realistically and accurately estimated.