Economic Analysis on Effects of Recurrent Resource Management on Global Warming through Global Timber Trading

1)在森林资源管理模型(DP-KYSS：九州林分模拟器动态规划模型)中，分析了森林经营实践对减缓全球变暖的意义。这一分析表明，间伐可以阻止碳封存的减少。考虑到补贴是对间伐造成的碳损失的补偿，对碳的评估表明，单位碳损失成本的现值在35岁轮伐期达到最高，在50至65岁轮伐期达到最低，具体取决于补贴措施。按100年轮换年限计算，目前单位碳损失的成本净值为44.56亿至110.13欧元/克拉。分析表明，延长补贴期限将降低碳的价值。补贴回报越高，越稀疏，减少封存在森林中的碳2)我们分析了经济机制…使用1990年代九州7县442个镇的数据，更多的是关于将森林转化为其他土地用途的短信。结果表明，人工林的比例、镇内所有人的土地占有率、林业工作者的密度等三个变量会减少林地转化为休闲、工业和居住用途，这表明在有利条件下进行的林业经营可以抑制森林转化。3)我们以宫崎县为研究对象，该县是日本林业最蓬勃、退耕还林最普遍的县。我们发现，如果重新种植，大多数收获的森林是在同年补种的，65%的采伐土地在第二年之前重新种植，剩下的35%可能被遗弃。4)北美木材进口的变化对新西兰木材需求的影响可能比对国内木材的影响更大。北美木材进口在日本木材进口中所占份额最大。美国房屋开工和油价上涨10%只会导致国内木材购买量增加1%。这意味着，即使实现了从北美进口木材的减少，目前拥有有史以来最大木材进口量的日本森林资源的利用仍然停滞不前，因此日本森林的可持续管理并不是一项容易的任务。5)我们利用按结构住房需求方程系统检验了碳税对木屋需求的影响。结果表明，如果碳税税率在政府目前提出的范围内，我们不能指望碳税的引入会大幅增加木质住房的需求。为了加速新税制的公布效果，木屋在化石燃料消耗方面具有良好的吸引力的启蒙活动，以及其他连接消费者和木屋的活动。6)我们提出了木材市场的森林部门模型，重点关注日本八个地区(东北、关东、北陆、中部、近海、中部、四国和九州)、中国和韩国。在估计这些地区的价格弹性的基础上，我们通过日本林业部门模型(JAFSEM)的空间和跨期局部均衡市场模型分析了这些地区的供需结构特征。研究结果表明：1)国内木材产区活跃的九州和美国加工木材产区中部地区整体木材需求和供给的价格弹性较小；2)消费面积大的关东地区木材需求的价格弹性较大；3)除九州外的日本区域木材需求将增加；4)韩国和中国将满足对木材的额外需求。较少

The results of our research can be summarized as follows.1)The significance of forest management practices on carbon sequestration for mitigating global warming was analyzed in the forest resource management model (DP-KYSS: dynamic programming model for Kyushu stand simulator). This analysis showed that thinning can prevents reduction of carbon sequestration. Considering subsidies as a compensation for carbon loss by thinning, the evaluation of carbon showed that the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss became the highest for the rotation age of 35 years and the minimum for the rotation age of 50 to 65 years dependent upon the subsidy measure. At the rotation age of 100 years, the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss was found to be 44.56 to 110.13 Euro/Ct. The analyses showed that lengthening the period for subsidy would reduce the value of carbon. Subsidy pays more with more thinning reducing carbon sequestered in a forest stand.2) We analyzed the economic mechani … More sms around forest conversion to other land uses using the data for 442 towns in Kyushu 7 prefectures in 1990s. We obtained the results that three variables, i.e., the percentage of plantation forests, the ratio of land owned by in-town owners, the density of forestry workers reduce forest conversion to each of leisure use, industrial use and residential use, which suggests that forestry management on-going under favorable conditions can brake forest conversion.3) We focused on Miyazaki Prefecture where forestry is the most vigorous and replantation abandonment is the most pervasive in Japan. We found that most forests harvested are replanted in the same year if it is replanted, and that 65% of harvested lands are replanted by the next year, leaving other 35% possibly abandoned.4) The change of timber imports from North American which has the largest share in the timber imported to Japan can have more significant effect on the demand for NZ timber than that for domestic timber. 10% increase of both housing starts and oil prices in the US only induces 1% increase of domestic timber purchased. This means that even if the decrease of timber imports from North America is realized, the utilization of Japan's forest resources which has now the largest ever volume is still stagnated and thus sustainable management of the nation's forest is not an easy task.5) We examined the effects of carbon tax on the demand of wooden houses using the by-structure housing demand equations system. Results illustrates that we cannot expect large increase of wooden housing demand from the introduction of carbon tax if the tax rate is in the range that the government is now presenting. In order to accelerate the announcement effect of new tax introduction, the enlightenment activity to appeal consumers the fact that wooden houses are good in terms of fossil fuel consumption, and other activities are needed to connect consumers to wooden house.6) We presented a forest sector model for lumber markets with a focus on eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticities for these regions, we analyzed the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our results showed the following; 1) the price elasticities of lumber demand and supply in the whole are small in Kyushu and Chugoku, where production area of domestic timber and the US processed lumber, respectively is active, 2) the price elasticities of lumber demand is big in Kanto, such a prefecture with big consumption area, 3) Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, and 4) the additional demand for lumber would be met by Korea and China. Less