Economic Analysis on Effects of Recurrent Resource Management on Global Warming through Global Timber Trading

通过全球木材贸易进行经常性资源管理对全球变暖影响的经济分析

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    15402003
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    日本
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助国家:
    日本
  • 起止时间:
    2003 至 2006
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The results of our research can be summarized as follows.1)The significance of forest management practices on carbon sequestration for mitigating global warming was analyzed in the forest resource management model (DP-KYSS: dynamic programming model for Kyushu stand simulator). This analysis showed that thinning can prevents reduction of carbon sequestration. Considering subsidies as a compensation for carbon loss by thinning, the evaluation of carbon showed that the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss became the highest for the rotation age of 35 years and the minimum for the rotation age of 50 to 65 years dependent upon the subsidy measure. At the rotation age of 100 years, the present net value of cost per unit carbon loss was found to be 44.56 to 110.13 Euro/Ct. The analyses showed that lengthening the period for subsidy would reduce the value of carbon. Subsidy pays more with more thinning reducing carbon sequestered in a forest stand.2) We analyzed the economic mechani … More sms around forest conversion to other land uses using the data for 442 towns in Kyushu 7 prefectures in 1990s. We obtained the results that three variables, i.e., the percentage of plantation forests, the ratio of land owned by in-town owners, the density of forestry workers reduce forest conversion to each of leisure use, industrial use and residential use, which suggests that forestry management on-going under favorable conditions can brake forest conversion.3) We focused on Miyazaki Prefecture where forestry is the most vigorous and replantation abandonment is the most pervasive in Japan. We found that most forests harvested are replanted in the same year if it is replanted, and that 65% of harvested lands are replanted by the next year, leaving other 35% possibly abandoned.4) The change of timber imports from North American which has the largest share in the timber imported to Japan can have more significant effect on the demand for NZ timber than that for domestic timber. 10% increase of both housing starts and oil prices in the US only induces 1% increase of domestic timber purchased. This means that even if the decrease of timber imports from North America is realized, the utilization of Japan's forest resources which has now the largest ever volume is still stagnated and thus sustainable management of the nation's forest is not an easy task.5) We examined the effects of carbon tax on the demand of wooden houses using the by-structure housing demand equations system. Results illustrates that we cannot expect large increase of wooden housing demand from the introduction of carbon tax if the tax rate is in the range that the government is now presenting. In order to accelerate the announcement effect of new tax introduction, the enlightenment activity to appeal consumers the fact that wooden houses are good in terms of fossil fuel consumption, and other activities are needed to connect consumers to wooden house.6) We presented a forest sector model for lumber markets with a focus on eight Japanese regions (Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), China and Korea. With the estimated price elasticities for these regions, we analyzed the characteristics of the supply and demand structure through the spatial and inter-temporal partial equilibrium market model called JAFSEM (Japanese Forest Sector Model). Our results showed the following; 1) the price elasticities of lumber demand and supply in the whole are small in Kyushu and Chugoku, where production area of domestic timber and the US processed lumber, respectively is active, 2) the price elasticities of lumber demand is big in Kanto, such a prefecture with big consumption area, 3) Japanese regional lumber demand except Kyushu would increase, and 4) the additional demand for lumber would be met by Korea and China. Less
主要研究结果如下:1)在森林资源经营模型(DP-KYSS:Dynamic Programming Model for Kyushu Stand Simulator)中,分析了森林经营措施对减缓全球变暖的意义。这一分析表明,间伐可以防止碳封存的减少。考虑到补贴是对间伐造成的碳损失的补偿,对碳的评估表明,根据补贴措施的不同,目前单位碳损失成本的净值在35年的轮伐期最高,在50至65年的轮伐期最低。在100年的轮伐期,目前每单位碳损失的成本净值为44.56至110.13欧元/吨。分析表明,延长补贴期限会降低碳的价值。补贴支付更多的间伐减少森林中的碳封存。2)我们分析了经济机制, ...更多信息 利用九州7县442个町村1990年代的数据,对森林转用的sms进行了研究。我们得到了三个变量,即,种植园林比例、城镇土地所有权比例、林业工人密度等因素均降低了森林向休闲、工业和居民用途的转化,表明在有利条件下进行的林业经营可以抑制森林转化。3)以日本林业最活跃、退耕还林最普遍的宫崎县为研究对象。结果表明,在当年采伐的林地中,绝大多数在当年重新造林,65%的采伐林地在次年重新造林,35%的采伐林地可能被放弃。4)北美木材进口量的变化对新西兰木材需求的影响比对国内木材的影响更大。在美国,房屋开工和油价上涨10%只会导致国内木材购买量增加1%。这意味着,即使减少从北美的木材进口,日本目前最大的森林资源的利用率仍然处于停滞状态,可持续经营国家的森林并不容易。5)我们使用附带结构的住宅需求方程系统,考察了碳税对木制住宅需求的影响。结果表明,如果税率在政府目前提出的范围内,我们不能期望通过引入碳税来大幅增加木制住宅的需求。为了加快新税制的公布效果,需要开展宣传活动,向消费者宣传木结构住宅在化石燃料消耗方面的好处,还需要开展其他活动,将消费者与木结构住宅联系起来。6)以日本8个地区为重点,介绍了木材市场的森林部门模型(东北、关东、北陆、中部、近畿、中国、四国和九州)、中国和韩国。在估算了这些地区的价格弹性的基础上,通过JAFSEM(Japanese Forest Sector Model)空间和时间局部均衡市场模型,分析了供需结构的特征。我们的研究结果表明:1)在国内木材和美国加工木材生产活跃的九州和中国地区,木材需求和供应的价格弹性整体较小,2)在关东这样一个消费面积大的县,木材需求的价格弹性较大,3)除九州以外的日本地区木材需求将增加,4)韩国和中国将满足木材的额外需求。少

项目成果

期刊论文数量(38)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Feasibility of forestry management by (from) Demand/Supply Model of Timber in Japan
日本木材供需模型进行林业管理的可行性
日本8地域と中国、韓国における製材品の価格弾性値と需給に関する分析-FORMATH Kyushu 2006-,森林資源管理と数理モデル(吉本・近藤・広嶋編)vol.6
日本、中国和韩国八个地区木材产品的价格弹性和供需分析 - FORMATH Kyushu 2006 - 森林资源管理和数学模型(吉本、近藤和广岛编辑)第 6 卷
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2007
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    行武 潔;吉本敦
  • 通讯作者:
    吉本敦
Optimal dividend policy of life insurance company with policyholders' dynamically time inconsistent preferences
投保人动态时间不一致偏好下寿险公司最优红利政策
Regression analysis of reforestation abandonment in Miyazaki Prefecture
宫崎县造林撂荒回归分析
The effects of maturity in planted forests on stumpage market : Econometric analysis of sugi stumpage market
人工林成熟度对立木市场的影响:杉木立木市场的计量经济分析
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Fujikake;I.
  • 通讯作者:
    I.
{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ journalArticles.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ monograph.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ sciAawards.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ conferencePapers.updateTime }}

{{ item.title }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.author }}

数据更新时间:{{ patent.updateTime }}

YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi其他文献

YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi的其他文献

{{ item.title }}
{{ item.translation_title }}
  • DOI:
    {{ item.doi }}
  • 发表时间:
    {{ item.publish_year }}
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    {{ item.factor }}
  • 作者:
    {{ item.authors }}
  • 通讯作者:
    {{ item.author }}

{{ truncateString('YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi', 18)}}的其他基金

Forest resource use vs. environmental policy & timber trade
森林资源利用与环境政策和木材贸易
  • 批准号:
    11691090
  • 财政年份:
    1999
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
Quantitative analysis on forest resource management along with environmental conservation and economic development in mountainous areas
山区森林资源管理与环境保护和经济发展的定量分析
  • 批准号:
    09660168
  • 财政年份:
    1997
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIMBER TRADE AND FOREST PROTECTION
木材贸易和森林保护的定量分析
  • 批准号:
    08041066
  • 财政年份:
    1996
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
Simulation analysis of timber trade structure among japan, the U.S.and Canada influenced by conservation problems.
受保护问题影响的日本、美国和加拿大木材贸易结构的模拟分析。
  • 批准号:
    04041083
  • 财政年份:
    1992
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
Research on the Quantitative Analysis of the Timber Supply System for the Effective Utilization of Available Forest Resources
有效利用现有森林资源的木材供应体系定量分析研究
  • 批准号:
    63560152
  • 财政年份:
    1988
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)

相似海外基金

Planning Application Carbon Evaluation and Reduction (PACER) Platform
规划应用碳评估与减排(PACER)平台
  • 批准号:
    10083015
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 7.62万
  • 项目类别:
    Collaborative R&D
{{ showInfoDetail.title }}

作者:{{ showInfoDetail.author }}

知道了