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Quantitative analysis on forest resource management along with environmental conservation and economic development in mountainous areas

山区森林资源管理与环境保护和经济发展的定量分析

基本信息

批准号：
09660168
负责人：
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi
金额：
$ 2.18万
依托单位：
MIYAZAKI UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1997
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1997 至 2000
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The objective of the project was to conduct quantitative analysis on forest resource management along with environmental conservation and economic development in mountainous areas. Our results are :1. Cost analysis : Under the current level of timber price level, silvicultural and harvesting practices may not be carried out. With use of subsidies there still remains difficulty for replantation. As a result, it will be necessary to renew and modify the subsidy policy in order to achieve our sustainable forest resorce management.2. Optimal thinning regime : With use of the proposed dynamic programming model, management effect of subsidy on thinning was revealed. The more the subsidy, optimal rotation age tends to be longer, ending up to 40 years. Changing discount rate from 1 to 3%, large effect was observed for 1 and 2% as compared to almost no effect for 3%.3. Timber demand/supply modeling : In Miyazaki as one of the largest sugi producing states, relative price elasticity of domestic lumber demand was -4.6, very elastic. In Iwate, relative price elasticity of log demand was -0.29. Shizuoka, which is close to the major timber consuming states, showed better results on timber supply.4 Forest resource management : Based on the current forest stocking level, we analyzed how much of timber supply could be expected on the sustainable fashion over time by use of the LP based harvesting model. In Miyazaki, allowing 10% change in harvest flow period by period, periodical (5 years) harvest level became 9490,000 m^3, which that was 2095,000 m^3 for Hiroshima under 30% allowance. This is because in Hiroshima infrastructure for production is not well developed as opposed to the major timber producing states, e.g., Miyazaki, and also because a large amount of US logs is imported, implying no necessity of improvement for domestic timber producing environments.

该项目的目标是对山区森林资源管理与环境保护和经济发展进行量化分析。我们的研究结果是：1.成本分析：在当前木材价格水平下，可能不会进行营林和采伐。在使用补贴的情况下，再植仍然存在困难。因此，有必要更新和修改补贴政策，以实现我们的可持续森林资源管理。最优间伐制度：利用所提出的动态规划模型，揭示补贴对间伐的管理效果。补贴越多，最优轮换年龄往往越长，最高可达40岁。将贴现率从1%改为3%，1%和2%的贴现率影响较大，而3%的贴现率几乎没有影响。木材需求/供应模型：在宫崎市作为最大的Sugi生产州之一，国内木材需求的相对价格弹性为-4.6，非常有弹性。在岩手县，原木需求的相对价格弹性为-0.29。靠近木材主要消费国的静冈县在木材供应方面表现出较好的效果。4森林资源管理：基于当前的森林蓄积量水平，我们利用基于LP的采伐模型，分析了随着时间的推移，可持续供应的木材供应量。在宫崎县，在允许收获流量逐期变化10%的情况下，定期(5年)收获水平为9490,000 m^3，而广岛在30%补贴下的收获水平为2095,000 m^3。这是因为广岛的生产基础设施与主要的木材生产州如宫崎市相比并不发达，也因为大量进口美国原木，这意味着国内木材生产环境没有改善的必要。