权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF TIMBER TRADE AND FOREST PROTECTION

木材贸易和森林保护的定量分析

基本信息

批准号：
08041066
负责人：
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi
金额：
$ 10.5万
依托单位：
Miyazaki University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1996 至 1998
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-08041066/
关键词：
Forest Economics Timber Trade Environmental Policy Lumber Processing Japanese Market Tropical Forests Market Equilibrium Model Econometric Model 森林資源ラジアタパインユ-カリ造林費伐出費

项目摘要

This study has focused on impacts, resulting from environmental regulations, on forest product supply to be traded among Japan, North America, Central America, South America and Oceania to seek a balanced situation for forest products trade and environmental protection. We conducted forest sector analysis as well as forest sector modeling. It has been revealed that a price of the Japanese timber may not be high enough to cover the total production costs. Silvicultural costs in Japan are found to be almost five to ten times greater than those in the main timber exporting countries. Only considering forest resources physically, it would be possible for Japan to be self-sufficient in supplying lumber to its domestic demand.Regarding forest sector modeling, we conclude that future efforts should : (a) develop spatial, intertemporal optimization models with multiple market levels ; (b) examine constraints on adjustment flexibility in the intertemporal welfare maximization format ; (c) develop methods that allow joint simulation of market and resource models retaining their respective detail ; (d) directly embrace the "messiness" of real world market/resource conditions ; and (e) be explicit about the uncertainty inherent in policy scenarios and projections. Using the Japanese forest sector model, our simulation analysis indicates that reduction of the US log import does not have much influence on domestic lumber production, instead accelerates lumber import to Japan, which mainly can be observed in Kanto.

本研究的重点是环境法规对日本、北美、中美洲、南美和大洋洲之间的林产品贸易的影响，以寻求林产品贸易和环境保护的平衡局面。我们进行了林业部门分析以及林业部门建模。据透露，日本木材的价格可能不足以支付总生产成本。据发现，日本的造林成本几乎是主要木材出口国的5至10倍。如果只考虑森林资源的实际情况，日本就有可能实现木材的自给自足。关于林业部门的模型，今后的工作应该是：（a）开发具有多个市场水平的空间、跨期优化模型;（B）在跨期福利最大化模型中考察调整灵活性的制约因素;（b）建立一个具有多个市场水平的模型。（c）制定方法，以便能够联合模拟市场和资源模式，同时保留各自的细节;（d）直接考虑真实的世界市场/资源条件的“混乱”;（e）明确政策设想和预测中固有的不确定性。利用日本林业部门模型进行模拟分析，结果表明，美国原木进口量的减少对日本国内木材生产没有太大影响，反而促进了日本木材的进口，主要表现在关东地区。