Forest resource use vs. environmental policy ＆ timber trade

我们的研究结果如下：定性分析：1)俄罗斯木材进口增加对中国的影响(1)国家森林经营财政收支恶化，市场价格下降。(2) 1999年1月以后，放宽对进口木材进口经营权的管制，增加了私营企业/供应商的数量，而不是中央和地方政府控制下的贸易公司；(3)中国大量购买林产品在东西伯利亚贝加尔湖附近进行森林砍伐；(4)非法采伐和进口增加；(2)极低的造林成本可能导致奥地利对日本出口增加；采收成本和运输成本，分别为21万日元/立方米、2240日元/立方米和5000日元/立方米。1)木材消费大区关东、中部、近畿地区的木材需求价格弹性在-1.0左右，而木材主产区九州、四国、东北地区的木材需求价格弹性在-0.1 ~ -0.5之间。另一方面，国内木材供应的价格弹性为0.12至0.32，美国进口原木生产的木材为0.08至0.47，进口木材为0.41。除Chugoku外，国内木材的弹性在所有地区都变得比其他地区更无弹性。2)利用提出的木材市场模型JAFSEM V2进行分析，发现进口木材的增长预计将达到7.1% ~ 9.7%，而国内木材供应将受到损失。这意味着进口木材的价格在部分均衡的情况下太低了。此外，东北是关东和北陆的主要木材供应地，而东北是四国和近陆的主要木材供应地。3)从FAO数据的平稳性来看，在木材进出口大幅减少和增加的时期，价格弹性趋于弹性值。北美和大洋洲的工业产品、刨花板和西欧的刨花板等产品的木材进出口数量呈现出价格弹性值较高的增长趋势。少

Results of our research are as follows.I. Qualitative Analysis : 1) Influence of import increase of Russia lumber in China (1) Aggravation of the financial income and expenditure of national forest management along with market price decrease. (2) After January, 1999, deregulation about acquisition of the imported lumber import business right increased the number of private enterprises / suppliers instead of trading companies under the central and a subsidiary of local government control (3) Deforestation in the vicinity of east Siberia Baikal by intensive purchase of forest products by Chinese (4) Increase of illegal harvesting and imports2) Increase of Austrian export to Japan might result from extremely low afforestation costs, harvesting costs and transportation costs, i.e., 210,000 Yen/m3, 2240 Yen/m3 and 5000 Yen/m3.II. Quantitative Analysis1) Price elasticity of lumber demand became around -1.0 in Kanto, Chubu, and Kinki, which are large timber consumption region, while it was fr … More om -0.1 to -0.5 elastic in Kyushu, Shikoku, Tohoku, that are timber producing regions.On the other hand, price elasticity of lumber supply became 0.12 to 0.32 for domestic lumber, 0.08 to 0.47 for lumber produced from US imported logs, and 0.41 for imported lumber. With exception of Chugoku case, the elastitcy of domestic lumber became more inelastic than others in all regions.2) Through the analysis with use of the proposed lumber market model called JAFSEM V2, it was found out that increase in imported lumber would be expected by 7.1 % to 9.7 %, and that domestic lumber supply would be sacrificed. This implies that the import lumber price would be too low within the partial equilibrium context. In addition, Tohoku is a main lumber supplier to Kanto and Hokuriku, while Chugoku is for Shikoku and Kinki.3) Regarding stationarity of FAO data, it was revealed that during such a period with remarkable decrease and increase of lumber import and export, price elasticity tended to show elastic value.A increasing tendency of import and export lumber quantity with high value of price elasticity, appeared for such products as industrial products from North America and Oceania as well as chips and particle boards, and those from western Europe. Less