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Forest resource use vs. environmental policy ＆ timber trade

森林资源利用与环境政策和木材贸易

基本信息

批准号：
11691090
负责人：
YUKUTAKE Kiyoshi
金额：
$ 10.48万
依托单位：
Miyazaki University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11691090/
关键词：
Forest Economics Timber Trade Environmental Policy Demand ＆ Supply Japanese Market Production cost Market Equilibrium Model Econometric Model 数理モデル森林環境対策生産・消費国北欧材輸入地域・国際社会伐採の生産性

项目摘要

Results of our research are as follows.I. Qualitative Analysis : 1) Influence of import increase of Russia lumber in China (1) Aggravation of the financial income and expenditure of national forest management along with market price decrease. (2) After January, 1999, deregulation about acquisition of the imported lumber import business right increased the number of private enterprises / suppliers instead of trading companies under the central and a subsidiary of local government control (3) Deforestation in the vicinity of east Siberia Baikal by intensive purchase of forest products by Chinese (4) Increase of illegal harvesting and imports2) Increase of Austrian export to Japan might result from extremely low afforestation costs, harvesting costs and transportation costs, i.e., 210,000 Yen/m3, 2240 Yen/m3 and 5000 Yen/m3.II. Quantitative Analysis1) Price elasticity of lumber demand became around -1.0 in Kanto, Chubu, and Kinki, which are large timber consumption region, while it was fr … More om -0.1 to -0.5 elastic in Kyushu, Shikoku, Tohoku, that are timber producing regions.On the other hand, price elasticity of lumber supply became 0.12 to 0.32 for domestic lumber, 0.08 to 0.47 for lumber produced from US imported logs, and 0.41 for imported lumber. With exception of Chugoku case, the elastitcy of domestic lumber became more inelastic than others in all regions.2) Through the analysis with use of the proposed lumber market model called JAFSEM V2, it was found out that increase in imported lumber would be expected by 7.1 % to 9.7 %, and that domestic lumber supply would be sacrificed. This implies that the import lumber price would be too low within the partial equilibrium context. In addition, Tohoku is a main lumber supplier to Kanto and Hokuriku, while Chugoku is for Shikoku and Kinki.3) Regarding stationarity of FAO data, it was revealed that during such a period with remarkable decrease and increase of lumber import and export, price elasticity tended to show elastic value.A increasing tendency of import and export lumber quantity with high value of price elasticity, appeared for such products as industrial products from North America and Oceania as well as chips and particle boards, and those from western Europe. Less

我们的研究结果如下。定性分析： 1）俄罗斯木材进口增加对我国的影响（1）随着市场价格下降，国家森林经营财政收支加剧。 (2) 1999年1月后，放松对进口木材进口经营权的管制，增加了私营企业/供应商的数量，而不是中央和地方政府控制的附属贸易公司的数量 (3) 中国人大量购买林产品，导致东西伯利亚贝加尔湖附近的森林砍伐 (4) 非法采伐和进口的增加2) 奥地利对日本的出口增加可能是由于造林量极低造成的成本、采伐成本和运输成本，即 210,000 日元/m3、2240 日元/m3 和 5000 日元/m3。定量分析1) 关东、中部、近畿等木材消费大区的木材需求价格弹性为-1.0左右，而九州、四国、东北等木材产地的木材需求价格弹性为-0.1～-0.5。另一方面，国内木材的木材供给价格弹性为0.12～0.32，国内木材为0.08～由美国进口原木生产的木材为 0.47，进口木材为 0.41。除中国地区的情况外，国内木材的弹性比所有地区的其他地区都更加缺乏弹性。2）通过使用拟议的木材市场模型JAFSEM V2进行分析，发现进口木材预计将增加7.1％至9.7％，而国内木材供应将受到牺牲。这意味着在部分均衡背景下进口木材价格将太低。此外，东北地区是关东和北陆的主要木材供应地，而中国则是四国和近畿的主要木材供应地。3）关于FAO数据的平稳性，发现在木材进出口显着减少和增加的时期，价格弹性趋于呈现弹性值。以下产品出现了进出口木材数量增加且价格弹性值较高的趋势来自北美和大洋洲的工业产品以及来自西欧的木片和刨花板。较少的