Investigation on Teleconnection and Prediction of Water-Related Disasters and Abnormal Weather in East Asia

东亚水灾及异常天气遥连调查与预报

基本信息

批准号：
16404006
负责人：
TAKARA Kaoru
金额：
$ 7.94万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This research aims at systematically summarizing historical events and various aspects of water-related disasters in East Asia, focusing on the relation ship of global climate and oceanographic-meteorological factors such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, impacts of water-related disasters on the society and countermeasures, and water hazard risk predicted in the future. The main activities include :(1) Mapping and chronological approach: Various kinds of data are collected such as hydro-meteorological data, locations of disasters, time, statistics of human damage and economic loss in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Analytical research was implemented to compare the changes of natural and social conditions and the changes in water-related disasters in terms of human damage, economic loss, magnitudes of floods and droughts.(2) Spatio-temporal correlation and teleconnection between water-related disasters and abnormal weather: Teleconnection was investigated by analyzing the re … More lationship between the spatial patterns of Antarctic Oscillation (AO)and South Oscillation Index (SOI) when abnormal weather took place and the occurrence of torrential rainfall and disasters caused in East Asian countries in terms of historical characteristics of abnormal hydrological phenomena and possible meteorological variations.(3) Water hazard risk and land use change: Change of the land surface conditions in river basins in each country was investigated, based on satellite imageries, aerial photographs and the thematic maps of topography, geology and land use. Also investigated is the change of hydrological change in runoff and water hazard risks caused by the development of agricultural lands, urbanization, and construction of reservoirs.(4) Occurrence of water hazards, social impacts assessment and prediction of risks: Probabilistic approach was tried to clarify the change of frequency of floods and droughts with the times. Various records were collected to analyze how the occurrence of water hazards depends on abnormal weather and the consequences by people's concerns, advancement of information and telecommunication (IT)systems, and social change of awareness. Less

这项研究旨在系统地总结东亚与水有关的灾难的各个方面，重点关注全球气候和海洋学现象学因素的关系，例如El-Nino Southern振荡，与水有关的灾难对社会和对抗的影响以及未来预测的水风险。主要活动包括：（1）映射和按时间顺序的方法：收集各种数据，例如水电学数据，灾难的位置，时间，人类损害和经济损失的统计数据和中国，韩国，越南和菲律宾。实施了分析研究，以比较自然和社会状况的变化以及与水有关的灾难的变化在人类损害，经济损失，地板和干旱的幅度方面。（2）时空的相关性以及与水相关的灾难与异常天气之间的远程连接，通过分析了对远程连接的研究，以进行重新研究，以进行重新研究。当发生异常天气以及东亚国家造成的降雨和灾难的发生时，就降雨和可能的气象变化而言，东亚国家造成的降雨和灾难的发生时。地形，地质和土地使用。还研究的是，由于农业土地的发展，城市化和水库的建设引起的水文变化和水危险风险的变化。（4）水危害的发生，社会影响评估和风险的预测：试图澄清地板的频率和干旱的频率和时代的变化。收集了各种记录，以分析水危害的发生如何取决于异常天气以及人们的关注，信息和电信（IT）系统的后果以及意识的社会变化。较少的