Investigation on Teleconnection and Prediction of Water-Related Disasters and Abnormal Weather in East Asia

本研究旨在系统总结东亚地区涉水灾害的历史事件和各个方面，重点研究全球气候与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动等海洋气象因子的关系、涉水灾害对社会的影响及对策、对未来涉水灾害风险的预测。主要活动包括：(1)测绘和时序方法：收集中国、韩国、越南和菲律宾的水文气象数据、灾害地点、时间、人员伤亡和经济损失统计等各种数据。进行了分析研究，比较自然和社会条件的变化以及与水有关的灾害在人员损害、经济损失、洪涝和干旱程度方面的变化。(2)涉水灾害与异常天气的时空相关与遥相关：通过分析异常天气发生时南极涛动（AO）和南方涛动指数（SOI）的空间型与东亚国家暴雨灾害发生的距离性，从异常水文现象的历史特征和可能的气象变化两方面探讨了距离性。(3)水害风险与土地利用变化：基于卫星影像、航空影像和地形、地质、土地利用专题图，调查了各国河流流域地表条件的变化。研究了农用地开发、城市化和水库建设对径流水文变化和水害风险的影响。(4)水害发生、社会影响评价及风险预测：尝试用概率方法厘清水旱发生频率的时代变化。收集了各种记录，以分析水害的发生如何取决于异常天气以及人们关注的后果、信息和电信系统的进步以及社会意识的变化。少

This research aims at systematically summarizing historical events and various aspects of water-related disasters in East Asia, focusing on the relation ship of global climate and oceanographic-meteorological factors such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, impacts of water-related disasters on the society and countermeasures, and water hazard risk predicted in the future. The main activities include :(1) Mapping and chronological approach: Various kinds of data are collected such as hydro-meteorological data, locations of disasters, time, statistics of human damage and economic loss in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Analytical research was implemented to compare the changes of natural and social conditions and the changes in water-related disasters in terms of human damage, economic loss, magnitudes of floods and droughts.(2) Spatio-temporal correlation and teleconnection between water-related disasters and abnormal weather: Teleconnection was investigated by analyzing the re … More lationship between the spatial patterns of Antarctic Oscillation (AO)and South Oscillation Index (SOI) when abnormal weather took place and the occurrence of torrential rainfall and disasters caused in East Asian countries in terms of historical characteristics of abnormal hydrological phenomena and possible meteorological variations.(3) Water hazard risk and land use change: Change of the land surface conditions in river basins in each country was investigated, based on satellite imageries, aerial photographs and the thematic maps of topography, geology and land use. Also investigated is the change of hydrological change in runoff and water hazard risks caused by the development of agricultural lands, urbanization, and construction of reservoirs.(4) Occurrence of water hazards, social impacts assessment and prediction of risks: Probabilistic approach was tried to clarify the change of frequency of floods and droughts with the times. Various records were collected to analyze how the occurrence of water hazards depends on abnormal weather and the consequences by people's concerns, advancement of information and telecommunication (IT)systems, and social change of awareness. Less