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Investigation on Teleconnection and Prediction of Water-Related Disasters and Abnormal Weather in East Asia

东亚水灾及异常天气遥连调查与预报

基本信息

批准号：
16404006
负责人：
TAKARA Kaoru
金额：
$ 7.94万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This research aims at systematically summarizing historical events and various aspects of water-related disasters in East Asia, focusing on the relation ship of global climate and oceanographic-meteorological factors such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, impacts of water-related disasters on the society and countermeasures, and water hazard risk predicted in the future. The main activities include :(1) Mapping and chronological approach: Various kinds of data are collected such as hydro-meteorological data, locations of disasters, time, statistics of human damage and economic loss in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Analytical research was implemented to compare the changes of natural and social conditions and the changes in water-related disasters in terms of human damage, economic loss, magnitudes of floods and droughts.(2) Spatio-temporal correlation and teleconnection between water-related disasters and abnormal weather: Teleconnection was investigated by analyzing the re … More lationship between the spatial patterns of Antarctic Oscillation (AO)and South Oscillation Index (SOI) when abnormal weather took place and the occurrence of torrential rainfall and disasters caused in East Asian countries in terms of historical characteristics of abnormal hydrological phenomena and possible meteorological variations.(3) Water hazard risk and land use change: Change of the land surface conditions in river basins in each country was investigated, based on satellite imageries, aerial photographs and the thematic maps of topography, geology and land use. Also investigated is the change of hydrological change in runoff and water hazard risks caused by the development of agricultural lands, urbanization, and construction of reservoirs.(4) Occurrence of water hazards, social impacts assessment and prediction of risks: Probabilistic approach was tried to clarify the change of frequency of floods and droughts with the times. Various records were collected to analyze how the occurrence of water hazards depends on abnormal weather and the consequences by people's concerns, advancement of information and telecommunication (IT)systems, and social change of awareness. Less

本研究旨在系统总结东亚水灾的历史事件和各个方面，重点研究全球气候与厄尔尼诺南方涛动等海洋气象因子的关系、水灾对社会的影响及对策，以及未来水灾风险预测。主要工作包括：(1)制图和时序方法：收集了中国、韩国、越南和菲律宾的水文气象资料、受灾地点、时间、人员伤亡和经济损失的统计数据。通过分析研究，从人员伤亡、经济损失、水旱灾害的严重程度等方面比较了自然和社会条件的变化与水灾的变化。(2)水灾与异常天气的时空相关和遥相关：通过Re…分析，研究了水灾害与异常天气的遥相关根据异常水文现象的历史特征和可能的气象变化，异常天气发生时南极涛动(AO)和南方涛动指数(SOI)的空间格局与东亚国家暴雨和灾害的发生之间存在更多的联系。(3)水灾风险与土地利用变化：基于卫星图像、航空照片和地形、地质和土地利用专题图，研究了各国河流流域地表条件的变化。研究了农用地开发、城镇化和水库建设引起的径流水文变化和水害风险。(4)水害发生、社会影响评价和风险预测：尝试用概率方法阐明水旱灾害发生频率随时间的变化规律。收集了各种记录，分析了水灾的发生如何取决于异常天气以及人们的担忧、信息和电信(IT)系统的进步以及社会意识的变化所造成的后果。较少