Investigation on Teleconnection and Prediction of Water-Related Disasters and Abnormal Weather in East Asia

本研究旨在系统地总结东亚地区与水有关的灾害的历史事件和各个方面，重点研究全球气候与厄尔尼诺南方涛动等海洋气象因素的关系，与水有关的灾害对社会的影响和对策，以及预测未来的水灾害风险。主要活动包括：（1）制图和时间顺序法：收集各种数据，如中国、韩国、越南和菲律宾的水文气象数据、灾害地点、时间、人员损失和经济损失统计数据。进行了分析研究，以比较自然和社会条件的变化以及与水有关的灾害在人类损害、经济损失、水灾和旱灾的严重程度方面的变化。(2)洪涝灾害与异常天气的时空相关和遥相关：通过对2004年10月至2006年10月期间的降水资料分析，探讨了洪涝灾害与异常天气的遥相关关系，并对影响我国洪涝灾害的因素进行了分析。 关于我们 从异常水文现象的历史特征和可能的气象变化两个方面，探讨了异常天气发生时南极涛动（AO）和南方涛动指数（SOI）的空间分布型与东亚国家暴雨和灾害发生的关系。(3)水灾风险和土地利用变化：根据卫星图像、航空照片以及地形、地质和土地利用专题图，对每个国家河流流域的地表状况变化进行了调查。研究了农业用地开发、城市化、水库建设等对径流水文变化的影响，以及由此带来的水灾害风险。(4)水灾发生、社会影响评价和风险预测：尝试用概率方法阐明水旱灾害频率随时间的变化。收集了各种记录，以分析水灾的发生如何取决于异常天气和人们的关注，信息和电信（IT）系统的进步，以及社会意识的变化所带来的后果。少

This research aims at systematically summarizing historical events and various aspects of water-related disasters in East Asia, focusing on the relation ship of global climate and oceanographic-meteorological factors such as El-Nino Southern Oscillation, impacts of water-related disasters on the society and countermeasures, and water hazard risk predicted in the future. The main activities include :(1) Mapping and chronological approach: Various kinds of data are collected such as hydro-meteorological data, locations of disasters, time, statistics of human damage and economic loss in China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. Analytical research was implemented to compare the changes of natural and social conditions and the changes in water-related disasters in terms of human damage, economic loss, magnitudes of floods and droughts.(2) Spatio-temporal correlation and teleconnection between water-related disasters and abnormal weather: Teleconnection was investigated by analyzing the re … More lationship between the spatial patterns of Antarctic Oscillation (AO)and South Oscillation Index (SOI) when abnormal weather took place and the occurrence of torrential rainfall and disasters caused in East Asian countries in terms of historical characteristics of abnormal hydrological phenomena and possible meteorological variations.(3) Water hazard risk and land use change: Change of the land surface conditions in river basins in each country was investigated, based on satellite imageries, aerial photographs and the thematic maps of topography, geology and land use. Also investigated is the change of hydrological change in runoff and water hazard risks caused by the development of agricultural lands, urbanization, and construction of reservoirs.(4) Occurrence of water hazards, social impacts assessment and prediction of risks: Probabilistic approach was tried to clarify the change of frequency of floods and droughts with the times. Various records were collected to analyze how the occurrence of water hazards depends on abnormal weather and the consequences by people's concerns, advancement of information and telecommunication (IT)systems, and social change of awareness. Less