New flood protection planning based on the use of distributed rainfall runoff simulation system

本研究旨在探讨一种新的方法，以建立一个新的洪水灾害规划，利用基于物理的分布式降雨径流模型和随机降雨生成模型。为了实现研究目的，雷达数据规模分析所需的分布式降雨径流模型，随机降雨生成模型的发展，和降雨预报误差分析与使用的翻译模型进行了。1）随机降雨模型的建立利用随机级联理论建立了随机降雨模型。在该方法中，2）分析了平移模式降雨预报的误差结构，并建立了对数正态随机场模型; 3）分析了分布式降雨径流模式所需雷达资料的空间尺度，阐明了所需雷达降雨尺度与流域尺度的关系; 4）建立了分布式降雨径流模式的雷达资料空间尺度模型，分析了雷达资料空间尺度与流域尺度的关系分析了分布式降雨径流模型对输入数据的空间尺度要求，发现模型参数的几何空间信息对径流模拟的敏感性较低。

This research seeks a new methodology to establish a new flood disaster planning by using a physically based distributed rainfall runoff model and a stochastic rainfall generation model. To achieve the research purposes, radar data scale analysis required by a distributed rainfall runoff model, development of a stochastic rainfall generation model, and a rainfall prediction error analysis with the use of a translation model have been conducted. The followings are summery obtained by the research:1) Development of a stochastic rainfall generation modelA stochastic rainfall generation model by using random cascade theory has been developed. In the method, topographic effect on rainfall distribution is successfully incorporated.2) An error structure of rainfall prediction by a translation model was analyzed and the error structure has been modeled as a lognormal random field model.3) Spatial scale of radar data required by a distributed rainfall runoff model was analyzed and a relationship between required radar rainfall scale and catchment scale was clarified.4) Spatial scale of input data required by a distributed rainfall runoff model was analyzed and it was revealed that geometrical spatial information of model parameters were less sensitive for runoff simulation.