New flood protection planning based on the use of distributed rainfall runoff simulation system

基于分布式降雨径流模拟系统的新型防洪规划

• 批准号: 12450199
• 负责人: TAKARA Kaoru
• 金额: $ 3.52万
• 依托单位: KYOTO UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12450199/
• 关键词: Distributed rainfall runoff model; Flood protection; River Planning; Rainfall Distribution; Design rainfall; Runoff prediction; Radar rainfall; Rainfall generation model; 降雨場モデル; 確率降雨; 洪水予測

This research seeks a new methodology to establish a new flood disaster planning by using a physically based distributed rainfall runoff model and a stochastic rainfall generation model. To achieve the research purposes, radar data scale analysis required by a distributed rainfall runoff model, development of a stochastic rainfall generation model, and a rainfall prediction error analysis with the use of a translation model have been conducted. The followings are summery obtained by the research:1) Development of a stochastic rainfall generation modelA stochastic rainfall generation model by using random cascade theory has been developed. In the method, topographic effect on rainfall distribution is successfully incorporated.2) An error structure of rainfall prediction by a translation model was analyzed and the error structure has been modeled as a lognormal random field model.3) Spatial scale of radar data required by a distributed rainfall runoff model was analyzed and a relationship between required radar rainfall scale and catchment scale was clarified.4) Spatial scale of input data required by a distributed rainfall runoff model was analyzed and it was revealed that geometrical spatial information of model parameters were less sensitive for runoff simulation.

这项研究寻求一种新的方法，通过使用基于物理的分布式降雨径流模型和随机降雨产生模型来建立新的洪水灾难计划。为了实现研究目的，已经进行了通过使用翻译模型的分布式降雨径流模型，随机降雨产生模型的开发以及降雨预测分析所需的雷达数据量表分析。以下是通过研究获得的夏季：1）通过使用随机级联理论开发了随机降雨产生模型的随机降雨产生模型。 2）2）分析了通过翻译模型的降雨预测的错误结构，分析了误差结构，并将误差结构模拟为对数正常的随机场模型。3）3）分布式降雨径流所需的雷达空间数据的空间尺度，分布降雨径流模型和通过降雨规模进行了降雨规模分析。分析并揭示了模型参数的几何空间信息对径流模拟的敏感性较小。