Welfare foundations of cost benefit analysis under uncertain, dynamic and multiregional economy

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

This study aims to explore the relationships between the definition of benefit, its measurement methods, its consistency with utility level and compensation test under uncertain, dynamic and /or multiregional economy. The main results are summarized as follows.1. Benefit definition, its measurability and its consistency with compensation test under uncertainty: It proposes to apply the concept of Allais Surplus to the definition of benefit under uncertainty, and shows that (1) the proposed definition is consistent with both the expected utility and compensation test; (2) it is measurable by observing the individual behaviors of disaster prevention investments.2. Benefit measurement formula for multiregional (dynamic) economy:(1) It shows that the reason that new transportation project induces further congestion deterioration is due to the existence of agglomeration economy, and that for measuring total transportation project benefits it needs to measure not only the transportation user … More (dis) benefits but also agglomeration benefits. (2) It shows that without small and open assumption the total benefit of local public goods can be measured by the change in land prices. (3) It improves the transportation benefit measurement formula by explicitly expressing the transportation activities as a economic sector within the framework of SCGE.3. Macro economic evaluation of global warming mitigation policies under dynamic economy: (1) it develops the modified RICE model where Japan is treated as one region, and (2) defines benefits=GDP+WTP, cost=investment, net benefit=consumption, then (3) develops the algorism within the optimization problem framework for simulating the business as usual situation, and (4) carries out the sensitivity analysis on the pure time preference rate and elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption.4. Evaluation model under dynamic and uncertain economy: (1) It develops the pre and intermediate evaluation models with explicit inclusion of stop and pause options for a public project, and (2) shows methods to measure the economic value for such options Less