权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Model development for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors

开发全球变暖政策综合评估模型，特别关注交通部门

基本信息

批准号：
11555137
负责人：
MORISUGI Hisayoshi
金额：
$ 6.02万
依托单位：
TOHOKU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1999
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1999 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11555137/
关键词：
Transportation Global Warming Person Trips Physical Distribution Behavioral Models General Equilibrium Analysis Social Welfare Function Transportation Fee Structure

项目摘要

This study aims to develop a set of dynamic and/or spatial computable general equilibrium (DCGE/SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors. The study result can be summarized as follows :1.This study surveys the unit social cost of 1 CO2 ton and estimates it as \7,000 per CO2 ton.2. This study develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors, which is dynamic to include the saving and investment, and has a variable of car-ownership in order to explicitly analyze the impacts of various policies on the car-ownership and car-usage.3. By carrying out a simulation based on the models mentioned above, it turns out that first, the carbon tax level necessary to achieve the CO2 reduction target of 2010 that is the 17 % up over the emission level of 1990 is \ 85,000/CO2, second, its annual welfare loss in … More crease over the present (\62,000/CO2 equivalent fuel tax) is \500 billion/year, finally, those value crucially depends on the value of fuel price elasticity.4. This study develops a static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors and land use regulations. And its application to Gifu metropolitan region implies that land use regulation is not necessarily efficient in terms of its benefits and cost comparison.5. This study develops another static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model with special attention to international freight transportation sectors although it does not yet carry out any simulation for evaluation of global warming policies, which is one of the remaining tasks.6. This study modifies DICE model by Nordhaus in such a way, first, that population be endogenous by applying dynasty model, second, that evaluation criteria be efficiency, equity within the same generation and equity between different generations. Based on the modified model this study compares three policies of optimal tax, 1990 level regulation and 2.5 C up regulation. It shows that the most efficient tax policy is best not only efficient but also both meanings of equity. Less

这项研究旨在开发一套动态和/或空间可计算一般均衡(DCGE/SCGE)模型，用于综合评估全球变暖政策，特别是关注交通部门。研究结果如下：1.本研究测算了单位二氧化碳吨的社会成本，估算为每吨二氧化碳的社会成本为7000欧元。为了明确分析各种政策对汽车保有量和汽车使用量的影响，本研究建立了一个动态可计算一般均衡(DCGE)模型，用于综合评价全球变暖政策，特别关注交通部门，该模型动态地考虑了储蓄和投资，并带有汽车保有量变量。通过对上述模型进行模拟，结果表明：第一，实现2010年二氧化碳减排目标，即比1990年排放水平提高17%所需的碳税水平为85,000/二氧化碳；第二，其在…中的年福利损失比目前(62,000/二氧化碳当量燃油税)更多的折痕是5,000亿/年，最后，这些价值关键取决于燃料价格弹性的价值。本研究开发了一个静态空间可计算一般均衡(SCGE)模型，用于综合评价全球变暖政策，特别关注交通部门和土地利用法规。并将其应用于岐阜市大都市区，表明土地利用管制在效益和成本比较上并不一定是有效的。这项研究开发了另一个静态空间可计算一般均衡(SCGE)模型，特别关注国际货运部门，尽管它还没有为评估全球变暖政策进行任何模拟，这是剩余的任务之一。本研究对诺德豪斯的DICE模型进行了修正，一是应用王朝模型认为人口是内生的，二是评价标准是效率、同代内公平和不同代间公平。基于修正后的模型，本研究比较了最优税收、1990年水平调控和2.5C上调调控三种政策。研究表明，最有效率的税收政策不仅是最有效率的，而且是公平的。较少