Model development for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors

本研究旨在建立一套动态和/或空间可计算的一般平衡（DCGE/SCGE）模型，用于综合评估全球变暖政策，特别关注交通部门。研究结果可以总结为：1。本研究调查了1吨二氧化碳的单位社会成本，估计每吨二氧化碳的单位社会成本为7000美元。本文建立了以交通运输为重点的全球变暖政策综合评价的动态可计算一般均衡（DCGE）模型，该模型动态地包含了储蓄和投资，并引入了汽车保有量变量，以便明确分析各种政策对汽车保有量和汽车使用的影响。根据上述模型进行模拟，结果表明，首先，实现2010年二氧化碳减排目标所需的碳税水平，即比1990年的排放水平增加17%，为85,000美元/二氧化碳，其次，其每年的福利损失比目前（62,000美元/二氧化碳当量燃油税）增加5000亿美元/年，最后，这些价值关键取决于燃料价格弹性的价值。本文建立了一个静态空间可计算一般平衡（SCGE）模型，用于综合评估全球变暖政策，特别关注交通部门和土地利用法规。其在岐阜都市圈的应用表明，土地利用调控的效益和成本比较并不一定是有效的。本研究开发了另一种静态空间可计算一般均衡（SCGE）模型，特别关注国际货运部门，尽管它尚未对全球变暖政策的评估进行任何模拟，这是剩下的任务之一。本研究对诺德豪斯的DICE模型进行了修正，一是采用王朝模型使人口内生，二是将评价标准改为效率、同代内公平和代际公平。本文在修正模型的基础上，对最优税收、1990年水平管制和2.5℃以上管制三种政策进行了比较。结果表明，最有效的税收政策是既有效又兼顾公平的两种含义。少

This study aims to develop a set of dynamic and/or spatial computable general equilibrium (DCGE/SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors. The study result can be summarized as follows :1.This study surveys the unit social cost of 1 CO2 ton and estimates it as \7,000 per CO2 ton.2. This study develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors, which is dynamic to include the saving and investment, and has a variable of car-ownership in order to explicitly analyze the impacts of various policies on the car-ownership and car-usage.3. By carrying out a simulation based on the models mentioned above, it turns out that first, the carbon tax level necessary to achieve the CO2 reduction target of 2010 that is the 17 % up over the emission level of 1990 is \ 85,000/CO2, second, its annual welfare loss in … More crease over the present (\62,000/CO2 equivalent fuel tax) is \500 billion/year, finally, those value crucially depends on the value of fuel price elasticity.4. This study develops a static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors and land use regulations. And its application to Gifu metropolitan region implies that land use regulation is not necessarily efficient in terms of its benefits and cost comparison.5. This study develops another static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model with special attention to international freight transportation sectors although it does not yet carry out any simulation for evaluation of global warming policies, which is one of the remaining tasks.6. This study modifies DICE model by Nordhaus in such a way, first, that population be endogenous by applying dynasty model, second, that evaluation criteria be efficiency, equity within the same generation and equity between different generations. Based on the modified model this study compares three policies of optimal tax, 1990 level regulation and 2.5 C up regulation. It shows that the most efficient tax policy is best not only efficient but also both meanings of equity. Less