Model development for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors

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This study aims to develop a set of dynamic and/or spatial computable general equilibrium (DCGE/SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors. The study result can be summarized as follows :1.This study surveys the unit social cost of 1 CO2 ton and estimates it as \7,000 per CO2 ton.2. This study develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors, which is dynamic to include the saving and investment, and has a variable of car-ownership in order to explicitly analyze the impacts of various policies on the car-ownership and car-usage.3. By carrying out a simulation based on the models mentioned above, it turns out that first, the carbon tax level necessary to achieve the CO2 reduction target of 2010 that is the 17 % up over the emission level of 1990 is \ 85,000/CO2, second, its annual welfare loss in … More crease over the present (\62,000/CO2 equivalent fuel tax) is \500 billion/year, finally, those value crucially depends on the value of fuel price elasticity.4. This study develops a static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors and land use regulations. And its application to Gifu metropolitan region implies that land use regulation is not necessarily efficient in terms of its benefits and cost comparison.5. This study develops another static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model with special attention to international freight transportation sectors although it does not yet carry out any simulation for evaluation of global warming policies, which is one of the remaining tasks.6. This study modifies DICE model by Nordhaus in such a way, first, that population be endogenous by applying dynasty model, second, that evaluation criteria be efficiency, equity within the same generation and equity between different generations. Based on the modified model this study compares three policies of optimal tax, 1990 level regulation and 2.5 C up regulation. It shows that the most efficient tax policy is best not only efficient but also both meanings of equity. Less