Development of Unified Demand Forecast Models for National Land-use Planning

国家土地利用规划统一需求预测模型的开发

• 批准号: 10450186
• 负责人: MORISUGI Hisayoshi
• 金额: $ 5.12万
• 依托单位: TOHOKU UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10450186/
• 关键词: Demand Forecast; national landuse Plan; Microeconomics; Benefit Evaluation; Value of Time; Existing Value; Behavioral Modeling; Transportation; 需要関数; 時間価値関数; 土地需要; 空間一般均衡分析モデル; 不確実性

This study aims to develop a set of practical demand forecast models based on a unified micro-economic behavioral principle so that it is possible to estimate associated benefits by using the developed behavioral models. The study results can be summarized as follows :(1) The consumption of various goods and services such as transportation and shopping, etc., requires time. Therefore, it needs to know the characteristics of the value of time. By making a simple consumer model, this study succeeded in the sensitivity analysis to show the influences of charge in price level, required time, total available time and income level on the value of time. This point has not been succeeded by the previous literature.(2) In order to apply the theory mentioned above to the practical transportation forecast, it is necessary to change the conventional method which forecasts given the value of time, to the method which is able to simultaneously forecast the demand and value of time. This study propos … More ed such a practical simultaneous forecast method by adopting CES utility function and showed its practicability.(3) By surveying present practical urban land-use models over the world, this study proposed a basic framework for the practical models on the micro-economic foundations, functional forms and assumptions and a pply this framework to theoretically express the reasons why the various results come from the various models.(4) It is said that theoretically there are not only a use value but also an existing value for any element of environment. This study showed that by adopting an appropriate utility functional form and derive its demand functions, it is possible to estimate amounts and their shares of the use value and the existing value for any element of environment by observing people's behaviours.(5) This study proposed an manual for emerment physical distribution plan and its usefulness and practicability. Specifically it suggests that it is important to maintain the speed of transportation by imposing some regulations in order to simultaneouslv achieve the minimization of total time and the longest time. Less

本研究的目的是建立一套实用的需求预测模型的基础上，一个统一的微观经济行为的原则，使它有可能通过使用开发的行为模型来估计相关的利益。研究结果可以概括为：（1）交通、购物等各种商品和服务的消费，需要时间因此，需要了解时间价值的特点。通过建立一个简单的消费者模型，进行了敏感性分析，揭示了价格水平、所需时间、总可用时间和收入水平对时间价值的影响。这一点在以往的文献中是没有成功的。(2)为了将上述理论应用于实际的运输预测中，就必须改变传统的给定时间价值的预测方法，而采用能够同时预测需求和时间价值的方法。本研究建议 ...更多信息 艾德采用CES效用函数给出了一种实用的同时预测方法，并证明了该方法的实用性。(3)本文通过对国内外城市土地利用模型的研究，从微观经济基础、功能形式和假设三个方面提出了城市土地利用模型的基本框架，并运用这一框架从理论上解释了不同模型产生不同结果的原因。(4)从理论上讲，任何环境要素都不仅有使用价值，而且有存在价值。本研究表明，通过采用适当的效用函数形式，导出其需求函数，可以通过观察人们的行为，估计环境中任何要素的使用价值和存在价值的数量及其份额。(5)本研究提出一份紧急物流计划手册，并探讨其实用性与可行性。具体地说，它表明，它是重要的，以保持运输的速度，通过施加一些规则，以不可避免地实现总时间最小化和最长的时间。少

项目成果

Toshihiro Kimura, Yoshiyuki Tokunaga: "Analysis of Change in Women' s Weekday Shopping Beh avior in the Area along a Subway"CITY PLANNING REVEW. No.34. 739-744 (1999)

Toshihiro Kimura、Yoshiyuki Tokunaga：“地铁沿线地区女性平日购物行为变化分析”城市规划评论。

Hisayoshi Horisugi: "Evaluation methodologies of transportation projects in Japan"Transport Policy. Vol.7, No.1. 35-40 (2000)

堀杉久义：“日本交通项目的评估方法”交通政策。

Yoshitusugu Hayashi, Hisa Morisugi: "International comparison of background concept and methodology of transportation project appraisal"Transport Policy. Vol.7, No.1. 73-88 (2000)

Yoshitsugu Hayashi、Hisa Morisugi：“交通项目评估的背景概念和方法的国际比较”交通政策。

武藤慎一,上田孝行,稲垣貴政: "地域特性と地域相互作用を考慮した地域政策の経済分析"土木計画学研究・論文集. No.16. 279-288 (1999)

Shinichi Muto、Takayuki Ueda、Takamasa Inagaki：“考虑区域特征和区域相互作用的区域政策的经济分析”土木工程规划研究和论文第 16 期。279-288 (1999)。

浦部晶彦,森杉壽芳,河野達仁: "時間制約を明示的に考慮した私的交通行動モデル"土木計画学研究・講演集. No.22(2). 667-670 (1999)

Akihiko Urabe、Toshiyoshi Morisugi、Tatsuhito Kono：“明确考虑时间约束的私人交通行为模型”土木工程规划研究和讲座第 22（2）号（1999）。