Development of Unified Demand Forecast Models for National Land-use Planning

本研究旨在建立一套基于统一的微观经济行为原理的实用需求预测模型，以便利用所建立的行为模型对相关效益进行估算。研究结果可以总结为：(1)各种商品和服务的消费，如交通和购物等，需要时间。因此，需要知道时间价值的特点。本研究通过建立一个简单的消费者模型，成功地进行了敏感性分析，显示了价格水平、所需时间、总可用时间和收入水平的收费对时间价值的影响。以前的文献没有继承这一点。(2)为了将上述理论应用到实际交通预测中，有必要将传统的给定时间值的预测方法转变为能够同时预测需求和时间值的方法。本文采用CES效用函数提出了一种实用的同步预测方法，并证明了该方法的实用性。(3)通过对国内外城市土地利用实践模型的考察，从微观经济基础、功能形态和假设等方面提出了实践模型的基本框架，并运用该框架从理论上表达了不同模型产生不同结果的原因。(4)从理论上讲，任何环境要素不仅有使用价值，而且有存在价值。本研究表明，通过采用适当的效用函数形式并推导其需求函数，可以通过观察人们的行为来估计环境中任何要素的数量及其在使用价值和现有价值中所占的份额。(5)本研究提出了一套物资配送计划手册，并提出了手册的有用性和实用性。具体来说，它建议通过实施一些规定来保持运输速度，以同时实现总时间的最小化和最长时间。少

This study aims to develop a set of practical demand forecast models based on a unified micro-economic behavioral principle so that it is possible to estimate associated benefits by using the developed behavioral models. The study results can be summarized as follows :(1) The consumption of various goods and services such as transportation and shopping, etc., requires time. Therefore, it needs to know the characteristics of the value of time. By making a simple consumer model, this study succeeded in the sensitivity analysis to show the influences of charge in price level, required time, total available time and income level on the value of time. This point has not been succeeded by the previous literature.(2) In order to apply the theory mentioned above to the practical transportation forecast, it is necessary to change the conventional method which forecasts given the value of time, to the method which is able to simultaneously forecast the demand and value of time. This study propos … More ed such a practical simultaneous forecast method by adopting CES utility function and showed its practicability.(3) By surveying present practical urban land-use models over the world, this study proposed a basic framework for the practical models on the micro-economic foundations, functional forms and assumptions and a pply this framework to theoretically express the reasons why the various results come from the various models.(4) It is said that theoretically there are not only a use value but also an existing value for any element of environment. This study showed that by adopting an appropriate utility functional form and derive its demand functions, it is possible to estimate amounts and their shares of the use value and the existing value for any element of environment by observing people's behaviours.(5) This study proposed an manual for emerment physical distribution plan and its usefulness and practicability. Specifically it suggests that it is important to maintain the speed of transportation by imposing some regulations in order to simultaneouslv achieve the minimization of total time and the longest time. Less