STUDY ON DEMAND FORECAST AND BENEFIT ESTIMATE FOR TOURISM PROJECT

在本研究中，我们提出了一个模型，可以预测观光旅游链的数量以及相关旅游项目（如道路改善和观光资源的新开发）对观光旅游链的影响。观光旅行的特点之一可以说是个人将旅行组合成一个以家庭为基础的链条，在这个链条中可以参观多个目的地。由于这一事实，传统的四步预测方法不能应用，因为它隐含地假设旅行分布的选择与任何邻近位置无关。我们的模型采用嵌套的Logit模型，通过对多个景点的游览顺序做出选择树来明确地表示观光旅行的这种链式行为。对于参数估计，我们的模型提出了顺序累计Logit过程，因为当我们确定其所在地时，任何观光景点的位置条件都可以被视为保持在相同的值，而与单个数据无关。对于旅游项目的效益估算，我们将等效变差的概念应用于嵌套Logit模型的效用函数，构建了一个效益度量模型。结果表明，考虑到一般运输成本的变化，收益可以近似为消费者剩余。最后，以岐阜市为例，验证了该模型的实用性。

In this study, we propose a model which is able to forecast the volume of sightseeing trip chains and the impacts on them of any associated tourism projects such as road improvement and new development of sightseeing resources.One of the characteristics of sightseeing trips may be said that individuals combine trips into a home-based chain in which more than one destination location may be visited. Due to this fact, the conventional Four Step Forecast Method cannot be applied because it implicitly assumes that trip distribution is chosen independently of any neighborhood locations. Our model adopts the Nested Logit Model in order explicitly to represent this chain behavior of sightseeing trips by making a choice tree on the sequence of visits for several sightseeing sites. For parameter estimation, our model proposes the sequential aggregate Logit procedure because the locational conditions of any sightseeing sites could be viewed as remaining at the same values irrespectively of individual data when we fix its home location.For the benefit estimation of the tourism project, we construct a benefit measurement model by applying the concept of Equivalent Variation to the utility function of the Nested Logit Model. It shows that the benefit could be approximated to the consumer surplus concerning with the changes of generalized transport cost.Lastly, our study shows its practicalty by applying our model to the Gifu region.