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STUDY ON DEMAND FORECAST AND BENEFIT ESTIMATE FOR TOURISM PROJECT

旅游项目需求预测及效益估算研究

基本信息

批准号：
03650432
负责人：
MORISUGI Hisayoshi
金额：
$ 1.28万
依托单位：
GIFU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1991
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1991 至 1992
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-03650432/
关键词：
Tourism Development Project Evaluation Demand Forecast Benefit Estimate Random Utility Theory Nested Logit Model Consumer Surplus Equivalent Variation

项目摘要

In this study, we propose a model which is able to forecast the volume of sightseeing trip chains and the impacts on them of any associated tourism projects such as road improvement and new development of sightseeing resources.One of the characteristics of sightseeing trips may be said that individuals combine trips into a home-based chain in which more than one destination location may be visited. Due to this fact, the conventional Four Step Forecast Method cannot be applied because it implicitly assumes that trip distribution is chosen independently of any neighborhood locations. Our model adopts the Nested Logit Model in order explicitly to represent this chain behavior of sightseeing trips by making a choice tree on the sequence of visits for several sightseeing sites. For parameter estimation, our model proposes the sequential aggregate Logit procedure because the locational conditions of any sightseeing sites could be viewed as remaining at the same values irrespectively of individual data when we fix its home location.For the benefit estimation of the tourism project, we construct a benefit measurement model by applying the concept of Equivalent Variation to the utility function of the Nested Logit Model. It shows that the benefit could be approximated to the consumer surplus concerning with the changes of generalized transport cost.Lastly, our study shows its practicalty by applying our model to the Gifu region.

在这项研究中，我们提出了一个模型，该模型能够预测任何相关的旅游项目，如道路改善和观光资源的新开发，观光链条的流量和对它们的影响。由于这一事实，传统的四步预测方法不能应用，因为它隐含地假设出行分布是独立于任何邻近位置选择的。我们的模型采用嵌套Logit模型，通过在多个观光景点的访问顺序上建立选择树来显式地描述观光旅行的这种链式行为。对于参数估计，我们提出了序贯聚集Logit过程，因为任何景点的区位条件在确定其原址时都可以看作是与单个数据保持相同的值；对于旅游项目的效益估计，我们将等价变异的概念应用到嵌套Logit模型的效用函数中，构建了一个效益度量模型。结果表明，在广义运输成本变化的情况下，收益可以近似为消费者剩余，最后，本文将模型应用到岐阜市地区，验证了模型的实用性。