STUDY ON DEMAND FORECAST AND BENEFIT ESTIMATE FOR TOURISM PROJECT

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In this study, we propose a model which is able to forecast the volume of sightseeing trip chains and the impacts on them of any associated tourism projects such as road improvement and new development of sightseeing resources.One of the characteristics of sightseeing trips may be said that individuals combine trips into a home-based chain in which more than one destination location may be visited. Due to this fact, the conventional Four Step Forecast Method cannot be applied because it implicitly assumes that trip distribution is chosen independently of any neighborhood locations. Our model adopts the Nested Logit Model in order explicitly to represent this chain behavior of sightseeing trips by making a choice tree on the sequence of visits for several sightseeing sites. For parameter estimation, our model proposes the sequential aggregate Logit procedure because the locational conditions of any sightseeing sites could be viewed as remaining at the same values irrespectively of individual data when we fix its home location.For the benefit estimation of the tourism project, we construct a benefit measurement model by applying the concept of Equivalent Variation to the utility function of the Nested Logit Model. It shows that the benefit could be approximated to the consumer surplus concerning with the changes of generalized transport cost.Lastly, our study shows its practicalty by applying our model to the Gifu region.