Prediction of Pacific bluefin tuna spawning area changes caused by global warming related rises in sea water temperature

本研究探讨了全球变暖和海面温度升高对产卵区域的预测变化。对太平洋蓝鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus orientalis）和黄鳍金枪鱼（T.鳍金枪鱼）的行为生理学进行了生物学测量，以确定最佳温度。)，并利用气候变暖情景下的海洋模式进行了模拟。结果表明：(1)蓝鳍金枪鱼卵和幼虫的最适温度为26℃；(2)蓝鳍金枪鱼缺乏辐射多余体热的能力，全球变暖可能影响其未来的分布。(3)预计到2100年，日本近海的幼虫成活率将下降到目前水平的36%。

The predicted changes in spawning areas due to global warming and the resulting rise in sea surface temperatures are investigated in this study. Rearing experiments of eggs and larvae to determine optimum temperatures, biologging measurements to compare behavioral physiology of Pacific bluefin tuna(Thunnus orientalis) to that of yellowfin tuna(T. albacares), and a simulation using an ocean model under a climate warming scenario were conducted. The results were as follows :(1) The optimum temperature for eggs and larvae were 26(2) Bluefin tuna would lack the ability to radiate excess body heat thus global warming could affect their distribution in the future.(3) The predicted survival rates of larvae arriving in Japanese coastal waters in 2100 would decline to 36% of present recruitment levels.