Longitudinal Analysis of Influence upon Traffic Demand Caused by Declining Birthrate and Increasing Ratio of Elderly People

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We studied about population estimation and the relation between facilities distribution and population distribution. All metrics are constructed using the Japanese national census and labour force survey for 11 years. Using 1/2-size grid system data, following results were achieved.(1) In the population estimation, we have shown that the influence of the concealed grid can be weakened, if we treat the grid system data by integrating the unit length into 2 km.(2) The error treatment technique for time series data were established.(3) From the analysis of the relationship between shopping activities and population which may influence traffic demand, we found that attracting retailers to underpopulated areas is very difficult, under both the conditions of increasing the elderly population and of decreasing birthrate. Moreover, the probability that retailers will be maintained in the future was clarified from the relation of the distance between residents and retailers.