New approach based on the critical phenomena concept to assess the occurrence time of earthquakes

最近有人提出，可以通过对导致临界现象的时间序列进行自然时间分析来估计系统接近临界状态的程度。自然时间是一种新的时间概念，它假设时间只有在事件发生时才继续。当通过上述分析可以导出的称为kappa1的参数收敛到0.07时，可以识别临界状态。在这项研究中，接近0.07的各种已知的临界现象进行了比较研究。在调查kappa1的统计特性时，我们发现在2011年日本东北太平洋9.0级大地震前，kappa1在地震活动中的波动表现出显著的变化。

It has recently been suggested that the approach of a system to critical state can be estimated by the Natural Time analysis of time series leading to a critical phenomenon. Natural Time is a new concept of time, which assumes that time proceeds only when an event occurs. Critical state can be recognized when a parameter called kappa1, that can be derived through the above analysis, converges to 0.07. In this study, approach to 0.07 was comparatively examined for various known critical phenomena. In investigating the statistical properties of kappa1, we found that its fluctuation in seismicity before the 2011 M9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake exhibited a remarkable variation.