Persistence in Economic Time Series: Interpretation, Measurement and Inference

如果一个经济时间序列受到的冲击具有永久性的影响，我们就说它是持续的。关于持续性的准确和明确的推论对于理解变量对冲击的反应，特别是对政策引起的冲击的反应至关重要。在这个项目中，我们将探索解释、测量和进行持久性推理的新方法。其目的是产生重大的理论和方法进步，当应用于经验问题时，将能够得出关于冲击传播的可靠结论，从而得出干预主义政府政策可能产生的影响。

An economic time series is said to be persistent if shocks to the series have a permanent effect. Accurate and unambiguous inferences regarding persistence are crucial to an understanding of the response of the variable to shocks, in particular to policy-induced shocks. In this project we will explore new ways of interpreting, measuring and conducting inference on persistence. The aim is to produce significant theoretical and methodological advances which, when applied to empirical problems, will enable reliable conclusions to be drawn regarding the propagation of shocks and, hence, the likely impact of interventionist government policies.