How “known unknowns” become known: How do people encode unpredictability?

“已知的未知”如何变得众所周知：人们如何编码不可预测性？

• 批准号: DE150100667
• 负责人: Dr Oren Griffiths
• 金额: $ 22.61万
• 依托单位: Flinders University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Early Career Researcher Award
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2015-03-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DE150100667
• 关键词: How; known; unknowns; become; do

As Donald Rumsfeld noted, there are 'known unknowns’. That is to say, people are seemingly capable of learning that some things cannot be reliably predicted. This learning underpins decisions from the trivial (whether to pack a jacket) to the life-defining (whom to marry). An aberrant form of this learning may also underlie mental health disorders. Yet the mechanisms of such learning have been largely overlooked by cognitive scientists and thus are poorly understood. The project, which is based on significant pilot data, aims to examine when and how people learn about unpredictability, and what the cognitive, memorial, neural and affective consequences of this learning are.

正如唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德所说，有“已知的未知”。也就是说，人们似乎能够认识到有些事情是无法可靠预测的。这种学习支撑着从琐碎的决定（是否打包夹克）到决定生活的决定（嫁给谁）。这种学习的一种异常形式也可能是心理健康障碍的基础。然而，这种学习的机制在很大程度上被认知科学家所忽视，因此人们对其了解甚少。该项目基于重要的试点数据，旨在研究人们何时以及如何学习不可预测性，以及这种学习的认知，记忆，神经和情感后果。