Development of constructing methodology of time-axis program for transport improvement, and environmental load management in Asian developing countries

发展中国家的大多数特大城市都在遭受各种城市问题的困扰，这些问题是由于跟上经济快速增长的社会间接资本短缺而造成的。本研究旨在构建一种分析城市/全球环境友好型交通改善战略以避免城市发展瓶颈的方法论，以发达国家的特大城市为目标，以发展中国家的特大城市为目标，阐明经济发展和交通基础设施需求变化推动机动化进步的机制。交通机构。对基础设施的改善进行了调查和国际比较。建立了一个数学模型来估计汽车保有量的变化，并模拟交通需求、道路交通状况、能源消耗和环境负荷。因此，发现了以下机制：在发展中国家，金融…交通基础设施改善的系统较多，特大城市内部及周边城市轨道交通和有轨电车状况较差。在这种情况下，如果造成快速的机动化和人口集中，交通条件也会迅速恶化。为了避免这种危机，建立与城市发展相适应的金融体系来改善交通基础设施被认为是有效的。特别是，在城市发展导致需求增加的土地和汽车市场上赚取的资金可能会被征税，然后转移到交通改善上。作为一种检查发展中国家特大城市详细的交通基础设施改善政策的技术，构建了一个估计交通条件因提供而发生变化的模型。模型中还使用了现场陈述的偏好调查数据。在未来铁路改善的情况下，对运输方式选择模型进行了校准，以预测运输方式的转变。并且还可以估计铁路网形成条件、服务水平和使用条件之间的关系。较少

Most mega cities in developing countries are suffering from various urban problems caused by the shortage of social overhead capital to catch up with the rapid economic growth. This research is aimed to construct a methodology that analyzes the urban/global environmentally friendly transportation improvement strategies of avoiding the bottleneck in the urban development.Targeting the mega cities in developed countries, which those in developing countries will follow in the future, the mechanism of motorization progress that is encouraged by the economic development and the change in needs of transport infrastructure is clarified. Institutions of transport. infrastructure improvement are surveyed and compared internationally. A mathematical model is constructed to estimate the change in the car ownership and to simulate transport demand, road traffic condition, energy consumption, and environmental load. Consequently, the following mechanism is found : In developing countries, financial … More systems about the transport infrastructure improvement are insufficient, and urban railway and tram are very poor inside ＆ near mega cities. Under such conditions, if rapid motorization and population concentration were caused, transport, condition would also worsen rapidly. For avoidance of this kind crisis, it is thought to be efficient to establish a financial system to improve transport infrastructure corresponding to the urban development. Especially, the money gained in the land and car market, where demand increases due to the urban development, may be taxed and then transferred to transport improvement.As a technique examining detailed transport infrastructure improvement policies in the mega cities of the developing countries, a model to estimate the change in transport conditions due to the provision is constructed. Stated preference survey data on the spot are also used in the modeling. The transport mode choice model is calibrated to forecast, modal-shift, in the case of future railway improvement. And it is also possible to estimate the relationship among conditions of the railway network formation, the service level, and the condition of usage. Less