Causation and Probability

因果关系，特别是它与概率的关系，已经成为科学哲学及其邻近领域中最活跃的领域之一。然而，目前的研究还不完整；核心问题直到最近几年才开始得到解决，甚至不是真正的焦点。这个联合项目想要探究四个这样的问题：一个特定的事件或事实到底在什么时候会导致另一个事件或事实？（而不是：什么是因果律？）这个世界的机械性因果概念与另一个世界的反事实概念之间的联系到底有多精确？我们如何在不同的（微观和宏观）层面上找到因果关系，然后这些层面是如何联系起来的？在什么意义上，因果关系是客观现实的特征？虽然前三个子项目涉及因果理论基础的各种细节，但第四个子项目加深了当前讨论的哲学背景。所有子项目都有自己的主题；但它们是相互关联的，它们将从相互合作中获得巨大利益。它们一起将大大促进目前的研究状况。对于所有子项目，概率的作用是至关重要的；因此，概率方法将是联合项目的进一步联合组成部分。康斯坦茨大学科学哲学研究所和康斯坦茨大学哲学系是两国科学哲学领域的领先机构，有着长期的合作关系。因此，它们为成功实施联合项目创造了最佳前提条件。

Causation, in particular in its connection to probability, has emerged as one of the most active fields in philosophy of science and its neighboring fields. Still, the current state of research is incomplete; central issues are starting being tackled only in the recent years or are even not really in the focus. The joint project wants to inquire four such issues: When precisely does a specific event or fact actually cause another event or fact? (As opposed to: what are causal laws?) How precisely are this-worldly mechanistic conceptions of causation related to other-worldly counterfactual conceptions? How can we have causation on different (micro and macro) levels and how then do the levels relate? And in which sense are causal relations features of objective reality? Whereas the first three subprojects engage in various details of the foundations of causal theorizing, the fourth subproject deepens the philosophical background of the current discussions. All subprojects have their own topic; but they are interrelated, and they will immensely profit from mutual cooperation. Together they will considerably promote the current state of research. For all subprojects, the role of probability is of vital importance; so, probabilistic methodology will be a further uniting component of the joint project. The IHPST and the Philosophy Department of the University of Konstanz are leading institutions for philosophy of science in their countries and have a long-standing cooperation. Thus they create optimal presuppositions for a successful implementation of the joint project.