Causation and Probability

因果关系和概率

• 批准号: 92484628
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Wolfgang Spohn
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Zentrum Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2008-12-31 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/92484628?language=en
• 关键词: Causation; Probability

Causation, in particular in its connection to probability, has emerged as one of the most active fields in philosophy of science and its neighboring fields. Still, the current state of research is incomplete; central issues are starting being tackled only in the recent years or are even not really in the focus. The joint project wants to inquire four such issues: When precisely does a specific event or fact actually cause another event or fact? (As opposed to: what are causal laws?) How precisely are this-worldly mechanistic conceptions of causation related to other-worldly counterfactual conceptions? How can we have causation on different (micro and macro) levels and how then do the levels relate? And in which sense are causal relations features of objective reality? Whereas the first three subprojects engage in various details of the foundations of causal theorizing, the fourth subproject deepens the philosophical background of the current discussions. All subprojects have their own topic; but they are interrelated, and they will immensely profit from mutual cooperation. Together they will considerably promote the current state of research. For all subprojects, the role of probability is of vital importance; so, probabilistic methodology will be a further uniting component of the joint project. The IHPST and the Philosophy Department of the University of Konstanz are leading institutions for philosophy of science in their countries and have a long-standing cooperation. Thus they create optimal presuppositions for a successful implementation of the joint project.

因果关系，特别是它与概率的联系，已经成为科学哲学及其邻近领域中最活跃的领域之一。尽管如此，目前的研究状况是不完整的;核心问题只是在最近几年才开始解决，甚至没有真正成为焦点。这个联合项目想要探究四个这样的问题：一个特定的事件或事实究竟在什么时候导致了另一个事件或事实？(As（1）什么是因果律？（这个世界的因果关系的机械概念与另一个世界的反事实概念之间的关系有多精确？我们如何在不同的（微观和宏观）层面上有因果关系，那么这些层面又是如何联系的呢？因果关系在什么意义上是客观实在的特征？前三个子项目涉及因果理论基础的各种细节，而第四子项目深化了当前讨论的哲学背景。所有子项目都有自己的主题;但它们是相互关联的，它们将从相互合作中受益匪浅。它们将共同大大促进目前的研究状况。对于所有的子项目，概率的作用是至关重要的;因此，概率方法将是联合项目的进一步团结的组成部分。IHPST和康斯坦茨大学哲学系是各自国家科学哲学的领先机构，并有着长期的合作关系。因此，它们为成功实施联合项目创造了最佳的先决条件。