Causation and Probability

因果关系，特别是它与概率的联系，已经成为科学哲学及其邻近领域中最活跃的领域之一。尽管如此，目前的研究状况并不完整；核心问题直到最近几年才开始解决，或者甚至不是真正关注的焦点。这个联合项目想要询问四个这样的问题：一个特定的事件或事实究竟在什么时候真正导致了另一个事件或事实？(与之相对的是：什么是因果定律？)这种世俗的因果机械论概念与非世俗的反事实概念有多精确的联系？我们怎么可能在不同的(微观和宏观)层面上有因果关系，那么这些层面又是如何联系起来的呢？在什么意义上，因果关系是客观现实的特征？前三个子项目涉及因果理论基础的各种细节，而第四个子项目深化了当前讨论的哲学背景。所有的子项目都有自己的主题，但它们是相互关联的，它们将从相互合作中获得巨大利益。它们共同将极大地促进目前的研究状况。对于所有的子项目来说，概率的作用是至关重要的；因此，概率方法将是联合项目的进一步联合组成部分。IHPST和康斯坦茨大学哲学系是各自国家在科学哲学方面的领先机构，有着长期的合作关系。因此，它们为成功执行联合项目创造了最佳前提。

Causation, in particular in its connection to probability, has emerged as one of the most active fields in philosophy of science and its neighboring fields. Still, the current state of research is incomplete; central issues are starting being tackled only in the recent years or are even not really in the focus. The joint project wants to inquire four such issues: When precisely does a specific event or fact actually cause another event or fact? (As opposed to: what are causal laws?) How precisely are this-worldly mechanistic conceptions of causation related to other-worldly counterfactual conceptions? How can we have causation on different (micro and macro) levels and how then do the levels relate? And in which sense are causal relations features of objective reality? Whereas the first three subprojects engage in various details of the foundations of causal theorizing, the fourth subproject deepens the philosophical background of the current discussions. All subprojects have their own topic; but they are interrelated, and they will immensely profit from mutual cooperation. Together they will considerably promote the current state of research. For all subprojects, the role of probability is of vital importance; so, probabilistic methodology will be a further uniting component of the joint project. The IHPST and the Philosophy Department of the University of Konstanz are leading institutions for philosophy of science in their countries and have a long-standing cooperation. Thus they create optimal presuppositions for a successful implementation of the joint project.