Reflexive Rationality: A Theory of Dynamic Choice

反身理性：动态选择理论

• 批准号: 201261349
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Wolfgang Spohn
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Zentrum Philosophie und Wissenschaftstheorie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2010-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/201261349?language=en
• 关键词: Reflexive; Rationality; Theory; Dynamic; Choice

The problem of dynamic choice is the problem how to plan and to behave rationally when envisaging to get into decision situations in which one may have arbitrarily changed beliefs and desires and not only, as traditionally assumed, beliefs changed through information. My proposal will be to solve this very general problem by representing decision situations by socalled reflexive decision models that contain not only action (and chance) nodes, but also decision nodes and thus represent the agent’s thoughts about her possible future situations. The proposal will develop many intricate details of the appertaining theory. And it will argue that no less will do. Thereby it will integrate a wide variety of ideas, models, and literature into one unified account: on time preferences, endogenous preference change, sophisticated choice, (pre-)commitment, self-control, resolute choice, etc. And it will be applicable to new phenomena hitherto hardly considered. This theory of reflexive rationality will have consequences for social contexts as well, i.e. for game theory, where it leads to a new kind of equilibria, so-called dependency equilibria, and their appertaining theory. It will thus as well be able to lay foundations to an account of so-called joint or we-intentions.

动态选择的问题是，当设想进入决策情境时，人们可能会任意改变信念和欲望，而不仅仅是像传统上认为的那样，信念通过信息改变。我的建议将是解决这个非常普遍的问题，通过所谓的自反决策模型，其中不仅包含行动（和机会）节点，但也决策节点，从而代表代理的想法，她可能的未来情况的决策情况。这个建议将发展出相关理论的许多复杂细节。它会争辩说，没有更少的将做。因此，它将整合各种各样的想法，模型和文献到一个统一的帐户：对时间的偏好，内生偏好变化，复杂的选择，（前）承诺，自我控制，果断的选择，等等，它将适用于新的现象，迄今为止几乎没有考虑。这种反身理性理论也会对社会背景产生影响，即对博弈论产生影响，它会导致一种新的均衡，即所谓的依赖均衡，以及与之相关的理论。因此，它也将能够为所谓的共同或我们的意图奠定基础。