Sustainable Farming System and the Effect on the Potential of Food Supply

有许多农场和农业合作社长期以来一直实行或引进部分有机农业。本研究的目的是调查其中的典型农场，并从农场管理经济学的角度对其进行评价。与专家合作，从农药、杀菌剂控制、能源投入产出分析、环境外部性等方面进行评价。在奶牛养殖方面，利用放牧土地的低产量奶牛养殖是最可持续的系统。农场调查表明，通过发展农业劳动力替代农业机械除草和农药，以及降低替代农药的“有机”投入品的价格，水稻种植更有可能提高可持续性。对于旱地农业，其农场规模较大，精确耕作方法有助于管理农田，特别是在传统轮作制度受到引入更集约化作物（如蔬菜）影响的地区。信息技术如作物病害预报系统对减少农药的使用是非常有效的，地理信息系统已被证明是一种非常有效的监测农民活动对环境的影响和积累信息的可持续农业系统。探讨了有机农产品标准监管和税收、补贴等经济政策手段在促进可持续农业发展中的有效性。关于可持续农业系统对粮食供应有多大影响的问题仍在讨论中，因为这取决于市场情况。稻田秸秆、林地、新信息技术等未利用的农业资源，都是值得考虑的“新”资源，可以增加粮食生产的可能性。

There exists many Farms and Agricultural Cooperatives which have been practiced or introduced partly organic farming for a long time. The purpose of this study is to investigate the typical farms among those and evaluate them from the point of farm managerial economics . The evaluation from the point of pesticide and fungicide control, energy input-output analysis and environmental externality was conducted cooperated with the specialist.In case of dairy farming, Low-output dairy farming which utilize grazing grass land is most sustainable system. The farm survey shows that rice farming has more possibility to improve the sustainability by developing the substitution farm labor to farm machinery in weeding and pesticide, and by lowering the price of 'organic' input which substitute for agricultural chemical. In case of Upland-farming, whose farm size is larger, precision farming method helped to manage farm land, especially in the area where the traditional cropping rotation system affected by introduction of more intensive crops such as vegetables.Information technology such as crop disease forecasting system is very effective to reduce use of agricultural chemicals GIS has proved to be a very effective to monitor the effects of the farmer's activity on environment and to accumulate the information of sustainable farming system. The effectiveness of regulation for the organic farm products standard and other economic policy means such as tax and subsidy to promote sustainable agriculture are also discussed.It is still discussing matter how much the sustainable farming system affect on the food supply, because it depend rather on the market situation. Not-utilized farm resource such as paddy straw, forestry land and new information technology are worth to consider as "new" resources to increase food production possibility.