Sustainable Farming System and the Effect on the Potential of Food Supply

长期以来，有许多农场和农业合作社实行或引入了部分有机农业。本研究的目的是从农场管理经济学的角度考察其中的典型农场，并对其进行评价。从农药和杀菌剂防治、能量投入产出分析和环境外部性三个角度与专家合作进行评价，以奶牛养殖业为例，利用放牧草地的低产奶牛养殖是最可持续的系统。农场调查表明，通过在除草和农药方面发展替代农场劳动力的农业机械，以及降低替代农用化学品的有机投入的价格，水稻种植更有可能提高可持续性。在农田规模较大的旱地农业中，精准耕作方法有助于管理农田，特别是在传统轮作制度受到蔬菜等集约化作物影响的地区；作物病害预报系统等信息技术对于减少农业化学品的使用非常有效。事实证明，地理信息系统是监测农民活动对环境的影响和积累可持续耕作制度信息的非常有效的工具。此外，还讨论了有机农产品标准的监管以及税收、补贴等其他经济政策手段促进可持续农业的有效性。可持续农业制度对粮食供应的影响程度如何，仍在讨论中，因为它更多地取决于市场情况。未利用的农业资源，如稻草、林地和新的信息技术，都值得考虑作为增加粮食生产可能性的“新”资源。

There exists many Farms and Agricultural Cooperatives which have been practiced or introduced partly organic farming for a long time. The purpose of this study is to investigate the typical farms among those and evaluate them from the point of farm managerial economics . The evaluation from the point of pesticide and fungicide control, energy input-output analysis and environmental externality was conducted cooperated with the specialist.In case of dairy farming, Low-output dairy farming which utilize grazing grass land is most sustainable system. The farm survey shows that rice farming has more possibility to improve the sustainability by developing the substitution farm labor to farm machinery in weeding and pesticide, and by lowering the price of 'organic' input which substitute for agricultural chemical. In case of Upland-farming, whose farm size is larger, precision farming method helped to manage farm land, especially in the area where the traditional cropping rotation system affected by introduction of more intensive crops such as vegetables.Information technology such as crop disease forecasting system is very effective to reduce use of agricultural chemicals GIS has proved to be a very effective to monitor the effects of the farmer's activity on environment and to accumulate the information of sustainable farming system. The effectiveness of regulation for the organic farm products standard and other economic policy means such as tax and subsidy to promote sustainable agriculture are also discussed.It is still discussing matter how much the sustainable farming system affect on the food supply, because it depend rather on the market situation. Not-utilized farm resource such as paddy straw, forestry land and new information technology are worth to consider as "new" resources to increase food production possibility.