Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for risk management

气候变化对极端天气事件对作业构成直接风险。虽然风险建模行业了解共享的社会经济路径在未来环境(直到2100年)可能如何影响保险资产，但目前还没有试图管理未来几个月的金融波动。例如，在2019-20年秋季英国洪灾期间，保险公司面临昂贵的索赔，而农民在2018年春季遭受严寒，随后是最炎热和最干燥的夏季之一。极端天气/气候风险的季节性变化取决于许多不同的气候指数，企业暴露在各种天气危险中的可能性在未来几个月可能更大(或更小)。由于保险定价目前并不灵活，当特定的天气灾害在一个业务期内更加频繁和普遍时，有时和解的成本可能会高得多。因此，季节性气候预报的经济效益是巨大的，但它们在很大程度上是未量化的。这个项目旨在制定一种可信和严格的方法来验证更本地化和详细的季节性预报产品，以便我们可以与我们的金融客户分享。我们的愿景是，然后我们可以向我们的潜在客户提供这一分析，用于他们的审计和模型评估过程。例如，在农业空间一级向作物保险公司提供干旱/洪水风险信息。我们预计，通过执行更完整的验证评估以满足更广泛行业的要求，我们可以更快地接触到更多客户。因此，克服这一评估挑战将使业务在一个独特的新市场和潜在的颠覆性市场中实现增长。我们的目标是在必要时将NPL的验证应用于我们在其他地区的预测产品，使用它们的可转移方法。由于气候风险影响大多数业务，解决这一挑战将促进零售需求管理、参数作物保险、可再生能源管理、资产再保险和银行业务的更广泛市场机会。

Climate change poses an immediate risk to operations from extreme weather events. While the risk modelling industry understands how Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are likely to impact insured assets in a future climate (up to the year 2100), there is currently no attempt to manage financial volatility over the coming months. For example insurers faced expensive payouts from claims during the UK flooding events during autumn 2019-20, while farmers suffered from the severe cold during spring 2018 followed by one of the hottest and driest summers. Seasonal variability in extreme weather/ climate risk depends on many different climate indices, with business exposed to a variety of weather perils that can either be more (or less) likely within the upcoming months. Since insurance pricing is not currently flexible, settlements can sometime be much more costly when a specified weather hazard is more frequent and widespread within an operational period.The economic benefit of seasonal climate forecasts is therefore substantial, yet they are largely unquantified. This project aims to formulate a credible and rigorous methodology for the validation of a more localised and detailed seasonal forecast product that we can share with our financial clients. The vision is that we can then supply this analysis with our prospective clients for their auditing and model evaluation process. For instance providing drought/ flood risk information to crop insurers at a farming spatial level. We expect that by performing a more complete validation assessment to meet the requirements of the wider industry, we can reach more customers much faster. Overcoming this assessment challenge would therefore enable business growth within a uniquely new and potentially disruptive market.We aim to apply NPL's validation to our forecast products in other geographies as necessary using their transferable methodology. Since climate risk impacts most operations, solving this challenge would facilitate wider market opportunities in retail demand management, parametric crop insurance, renewable energy management, asset reinsurance and banking.