The impact of excise tax structures for retail marijuana on marijuana consumption

零售大麻消费税结构对大麻消费的影响

• 批准号: 10366506
• 负责人: Ce Shang
• 金额: $ 70.53万
• 依托单位: OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-15 至 2027-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10366506
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Age; Alcohols; Calibration; Cannabis; Cigarette; Consumption; District of Columbia; Effectiveness; Flowers; Goals; Health; Intention; Knowledge; Legal; Link; Marijuana; Methods; Modeling; National Institute of Drug Abuse; Natural experiment; Outcome; Participant; Persons; Policies; Population; Price; Probability Samples; Process; Psyche structure; Public Health; Reporting; Sales; Structure; Surveys; Taxation; Taxes; Tetrahydrocannabinol; Therapeutic Effect; Time; Weight; Youth; authority; base; cohort; design; experimental study; infancy; innovation; interest; marijuana legalization; marijuana use; marijuana user; nonmedical use; policy implication; preference; prevent; prospective; reduce marijuana use; response; trend; young adult

Project Summary Fifteen states and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana products for non-medical use, making them accessible to one-third of the US population. Despite having therapeutic effects, marijuana use leads to a wide range of adverse physical and mental effects. Based on approaches to regulate alcohol and cigarettes, imposing excise taxes on retail marijuana is among the most effective policies to mitigate related harmful public health consequences. However, the retail marijuana market is still in its infancy, and state and local authorities have knowledge gaps on how to best design excise tax structures (i.e., rates and bases) to reduce harms. Unlike cigarette and alcohol markets where standard products dominate, marijuana products come in different forms and various tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) levels, which consequently pose different levels of harm. Therefore, there are multiple factors to consider when setting tax structures for retail marijuana. Taxes could be based on weight, price, or potency. A weight basis has the advantage of raising prices equally to prevent switching to lower-priced products but may fail to reduce THC consumption by not targeting potency. Conversely, because more potent THC products are priced higher, price and potency bases may have the advantage of imposing higher taxes on products with higher THC levels but may fail to put effective price barriers on less potent, lower- priced products that would deter initiation. Further, marijuana prices decrease over time after legalization, calling for frequent increases in tax rates to sufficiently raise prices. It is unclear whether existing tax rates are set properly in response to this decreasing price trend. As such, which tax rates are applied to which bases will significantly alter prices and relative prices by product form and potency level, thereby influencing marijuana use and health outcomes. The tax structure design for retail marijuana is further challenged by the illegal market, which is often used as an argument against raising marijuana excise taxes. We lack empirical evidence indicating the extent to which excise tax structures drive consumers to the illegal market and how this may undermine the effectiveness of tax policies in reducing marijuana use and harms. Project goal: To evaluate how excise tax structures impact marijuana consumption and product choices among different marijuana forms and between legal and illegal products. This project will innovatively integrate state-of-the-art choice experiments and natural experiments to identify the impacts of tax structures on THC consumption and product choices. Aim 1: Examine the impact of excise tax rates for retail marijuana on marijuana use and product choices. Aim 2: Examine the impact of tax bases (weight, price, potency) on marijuana initiation and consumption. Aim 3: Evaluate the overall THC consumption and market share shifts from legal to illegal markets under different excise tax structures for retail marijuana using calibration. Results will have critical policy implications that inform how to set tax structure to mitigate harms for states contemplating excise taxation policies as they legalize, and states and localities with legal sales contemplating reforms to their current tax structures.

项目摘要 15个州和哥伦比亚特区已经将大麻产品合法化用于非医疗用途， 美国三分之一的人口都能使用。尽管有治疗效果，大麻的使用导致广泛的 对身体和精神的一系列不良影响。根据管制酒精和香烟的办法， 对零售大麻征收消费税是减轻相关有害公共卫生的最有效政策之一 后果然而，零售大麻市场仍处于起步阶段，州和地方当局已 关于如何最好地设计消费税结构的知识差距（即，率和基础），以减少危害。不像 香烟和酒精市场以标准产品为主，大麻产品有不同的形式 以及不同的四氢大麻酚（THC）水平，从而造成不同程度的伤害。因此，我们认为， 在为零售大麻制定税收结构时，需要考虑多种因素。税收可以基于 重量价格或效力重量基础的优点是提高价格平等，以防止切换到 价格较低的产品，但可能无法减少THC的消费不针对效力。反之，因为 更有效的THC产品价格更高，价格和效力基础可能具有强加的优势 对THC含量较高的产品征收更高的税，但可能无法对效力较低， 定价的产品，这将阻止启动。此外，大麻合法化后，大麻价格随着时间的推移而下降， 频繁提高税率以充分提高价格。目前尚不清楚现有税率是否设定 适当地应对这种价格下降的趋势。因此，哪些税率适用于哪些基数， 按产品形式和效力水平显著改变价格和相对价格，从而影响大麻使用 和健康结果。零售大麻的税收结构设计受到非法市场的进一步挑战， 这经常被用作反对提高大麻消费税的理由。我们缺乏经验证据表明 消费税结构在多大程度上将消费者推向非法市场，以及这可能如何破坏 税收政策在减少大麻使用和危害方面的有效性。项目目标：评估消费税 结构影响大麻消费和不同大麻形式之间的产品选择， 法律的和非法的产品。该项目将创新性地整合最先进的选择实验和自然 实验，以确定税收结构对THC消费和产品选择的影响。目标1：检查 零售大麻的消费税税率对大麻使用和产品选择的影响。目标2：检查 税收基础（重量，价格，效力）对大麻开始和消费的影响。目标3：全面评估 在不同的消费税结构下，THC消费和市场份额从法律的市场转移到非法市场， 零售大麻研究结果将对如何制定税收结构产生重要的政策影响 为了减轻各州在考虑消费税政策合法化时的危害， 法律的销售考虑改革他们目前的税收结构。