The impact of excise tax structures for retail marijuana on marijuana consumption

零售大麻消费税结构对大麻消费的影响

• 批准号: 10366506
• 负责人: Ce Shang
• 金额: $ 70.53万
• 依托单位: OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-15 至 2027-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10366506
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Age; Alcohols; Calibration; Cannabis; Cigarette; Consumption; District of Columbia; Effectiveness; Flowers; Goals; Health; Intention; Knowledge; Legal; Link; Marijuana; Methods; Modeling; National Institute of Drug Abuse; Natural experiment; Outcome; Participant; Persons; Policies; Population; Price; Probability Samples; Process; Psyche structure; Public Health; Reporting; Sales; Structure; Surveys; Taxation; Taxes; Tetrahydrocannabinol; Therapeutic Effect; Time; Weight; Youth; authority; base; cohort; design; experimental study; infancy; innovation; interest; marijuana legalization; marijuana use; marijuana user; nonmedical use; policy implication; preference; prevent; prospective; reduce marijuana use; response; trend; young adult

Project Summary Fifteen states and the District of Columbia have legalized marijuana products for non-medical use, making them accessible to one-third of the US population. Despite having therapeutic effects, marijuana use leads to a wide range of adverse physical and mental effects. Based on approaches to regulate alcohol and cigarettes, imposing excise taxes on retail marijuana is among the most effective policies to mitigate related harmful public health consequences. However, the retail marijuana market is still in its infancy, and state and local authorities have knowledge gaps on how to best design excise tax structures (i.e., rates and bases) to reduce harms. Unlike cigarette and alcohol markets where standard products dominate, marijuana products come in different forms and various tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) levels, which consequently pose different levels of harm. Therefore, there are multiple factors to consider when setting tax structures for retail marijuana. Taxes could be based on weight, price, or potency. A weight basis has the advantage of raising prices equally to prevent switching to lower-priced products but may fail to reduce THC consumption by not targeting potency. Conversely, because more potent THC products are priced higher, price and potency bases may have the advantage of imposing higher taxes on products with higher THC levels but may fail to put effective price barriers on less potent, lower- priced products that would deter initiation. Further, marijuana prices decrease over time after legalization, calling for frequent increases in tax rates to sufficiently raise prices. It is unclear whether existing tax rates are set properly in response to this decreasing price trend. As such, which tax rates are applied to which bases will significantly alter prices and relative prices by product form and potency level, thereby influencing marijuana use and health outcomes. The tax structure design for retail marijuana is further challenged by the illegal market, which is often used as an argument against raising marijuana excise taxes. We lack empirical evidence indicating the extent to which excise tax structures drive consumers to the illegal market and how this may undermine the effectiveness of tax policies in reducing marijuana use and harms. Project goal: To evaluate how excise tax structures impact marijuana consumption and product choices among different marijuana forms and between legal and illegal products. This project will innovatively integrate state-of-the-art choice experiments and natural experiments to identify the impacts of tax structures on THC consumption and product choices. Aim 1: Examine the impact of excise tax rates for retail marijuana on marijuana use and product choices. Aim 2: Examine the impact of tax bases (weight, price, potency) on marijuana initiation and consumption. Aim 3: Evaluate the overall THC consumption and market share shifts from legal to illegal markets under different excise tax structures for retail marijuana using calibration. Results will have critical policy implications that inform how to set tax structure to mitigate harms for states contemplating excise taxation policies as they legalize, and states and localities with legal sales contemplating reforms to their current tax structures.

项目概要 十五个州和哥伦比亚特区已将非医疗用途的大麻产品合法化，使它们 三分之一的美国人口可以使用。尽管具有治疗作用，但吸食大麻会导致广泛的健康问题 一系列不良的身体和精神影响。根据管制酒精和香烟的方法， 对零售大麻征收消费税是减轻相关有害公共健康的最有效政策之一 结果。然而，零售大麻市场仍处于起步阶段，州和地方当局已经 关于如何最好地设计消费税结构（即税率和税基）以减少危害的知识差距。不像 标准产品占主导地位的香烟和酒类市场，大麻产品有不同的形式 以及各种四氢大麻酚（THC）含量，从而造成不同程度的危害。所以， 制定零售大麻税收结构时需要考虑多种因素。税收可以基于 重量、价格或效力。重量基础的优点是可以平等地提高价格，以防止转向 价格较低的产品，但可能无法通过不瞄准效力来减少 THC 消耗。反之，因为 更有效的 THC 产品价格更高，价格和效力基础可能具有强加的优势 对 THC 含量较高的产品征收更高的税，但可能无法对功效较弱、价格较低的产品设置有效的价格壁垒。 价格昂贵的产品会阻止人们开始使用。此外，大麻合法化后价格随着时间的推移而下降，呼吁 频繁提高税率以充分提高价格。目前尚不清楚现有税率是否已确定 适当地应对这种价格下降的趋势。因此，哪些税率适用于哪些基地 产品形式和效力水平显着改变价格和相对价格，从而影响大麻的使用 和健康结果。零售大麻的税收结构设计进一步受到非法市场的挑战， 这经常被用作反对提高大麻消费税的论据。我们缺乏经验证据表明 消费税结构在多大程度上驱使消费者进入非法市场，以及这可能如何破坏 税收政策在减少大麻使用和危害方面的有效性。项目目标：评估消费税如何征收 结构影响不同大麻形式之间的大麻消费和产品选择 合法和非法产品。该项目将创新性地整合最先进的选择实验和自然 进行实验以确定税收结构对 THC 消费和产品选择的影响。目标 1：检查 零售大麻消费税率对大麻使用和产品选择的影响。目标 2：检查 税基（重量、价格、效力）对大麻吸食和消费的影响。目标 3：评估总体 在不同的消费税结构下，THC 的消费和市场份额从合法市场转移到非法市场 使用校准零售大麻。结果将产生重要的政策影响，指导如何制定税收结构 减轻对正在考虑将消费税政策合法化的州以及实施消费税政策的州和地方造成的损害 考虑改革当前税收结构的合法销售。