The impact of ENDS tax policies on the consumption of ENDS and cigarettes

项目摘要 过去十年中ENDS使用的显着增加促使政府采取了一系列行动，包括 一些州和地方征收ENDS消费税。目前，23个州，DC和几个地方 各司法管辖区都有ENDS消费税。虽然这些税收可能会阻止年轻人使用ENDS，但它仍然存在。 不清楚在州和地方一级颁布的ENDS税的征收和强度是否保持了 鼓励成年吸烟者改用ENDS。作为2020年科克伦综述的结论， 支持ENDS有效帮助吸烟者戒烟的证据，越来越重要的是要了解 在同时针对ENDS和卷烟的烟草税收制度中，ENDS税如何影响以下选择： 这两种方法，特别是在使用这两种方法并可能正在戒烟的成年吸烟者中。 ENDS产品特性的日益复杂性进一步使有效税收的设计复杂化 施政纲要而与简单地基于单位（每包）的卷烟税不同，ENDS税可以基于体积（每毫升）， 价格（单位价值）和尼古丁（每毫克）以及税基的选择将导致ENDS的不同税负 系统（pod vs.一次性用品。与储罐系统相比），这可能进一步影响产品选择、满意度， 烟草使用轨迹。 该项目的主要目标是通过量化ENDS税的影响来填补证据空白 关于烟草消费和选择的政策，包括强制和力度（例如，一次性用品 vs.豆荚; ENDS vs.香烟），进一步探讨不同的税收负担 由于不同的税基影响产品的选择。我们建议进行体积选择实验 （VCE）在双重用途香烟和ENDS（年龄18岁以上; N=400）的成人中检查目标1（ 烟草税制度对ENDS和香烟之间的选择以及每种消费的影响），以及成年人 使用ENDS且不吸烟的人（年龄18岁以上; N=400）检查目标2（ENDS税对 产品的选择和消费）。我们将创新性地采用VCE，在通用分立器件的基础上进行扩展 选择性实验（DCE）用于烟草研究，具有以下优点：1）测量量 而不是二元选择; 2）灵活地建模产品之间的关系， 互补性（例如，使用ENDS增加吸烟）和替代（使用ENDS减少吸烟）; 以及3）明确地模拟设备税（价格）和可再填充税（价格）对行为的影响。 我们的研究是非常重要的，并将通过提供信息联邦，州和地方ENDS税收政策 关于ENDS税在减少成人ENDS使用者烟草使用和危害方面的有效性的证据， 它解决了未来十年NCI烟草研究的优先事项，包括了解 目前的烟草产品（#4）和确定创新政策，以进一步减少烟草使用（#7）。

Project Abstract The marked increase in ENDS use in the last decade has prompted a range of government actions, including the imposition of ENDS excise taxes by some states and localities. Currently, 23 states, DC, and several local jurisdictions have ENDS excise taxes in place. While these taxes may prevent youth from ENDS use, it remains unclear whether the imposition and strength of ENDS taxes enacted at the state and local levels have kept the cost incentive for adult smokers to switch to ENDS. As a 2020 Cochrane review concluded that there is moderate evidence supporting ENDS effectiveness in helping smokers to quit, it is increasingly important to understand how ENDS taxes in a tobacco tax system that targets both ENDS and cigarettes impact the choices between the two, particularly among adult smokers who use both and are possibly in transition to quitting smoking. The growing complexity of product characteristics of ENDS further complicates the design of effective tax policies. Unlike cigarette taxes based simply on unit (per pack), ENDS taxes can be based on volume (per ml), price (per value), and nicotine (per mg), and choices of tax bases will lead to differential tax burdens by ENDS systems (pods vs. disposables. vs. tank systems) that could further impact product choices, satisfaction, and tobacco use trajectories. The broad goal of this project is to fill the evidence gap by quantifying the impacts of ENDS tax policies, including the imposition and strength, on tobacco consumption and choices (e.g., disposables vs. pods; ENDS vs. cigarettes) among adult ENDS users, further exploring how differential tax burdens due to different tax bases impact product choices. We propose to conduct volumetric choice experiments (VCEs) among adults who dual-use cigarettes and ENDS (age 18+; N=400) to examine Aim 1 (the impact of a tobacco tax system on choices between ENDS and cigarettes and the consumption of each), and among adults who use ENDS and do not smoke cigarettes (age 18+; N=400) to examine Aim 2 (the impact of ENDS taxes on ENDS product choice and consumption). We will innovatively adopt VCEs which expand on the common discrete choice experiments (DCEs) used in tobacco research and have the following advantages: 1) measure quantities instead of binary choices; 2) flexibly model the relationship between products by allowing for both complementarity (e.g., ENDS use increases cigarette smoking) and substitution (ENDS use decreases smoking); and 3) explicitly model the impacts of device taxes (prices) and refillable taxes (prices) on behaviors. Our study is highly significant and will inform federal, state, and local ENDS tax policies by providing evidence on the effectiveness of ENDS taxes on reducing tobacco use and harms among adult ENDS users, which addresses NCI tobacco research priorities for the next decade, including understanding the complexity of current tobacco products (#4) and identifying innovative policy to further reduce tobacco use (# 7).