The impact of ENDS tax policies on the consumption of ENDS and cigarettes

项目摘要 在过去十年中，终端使用量的显著增加促使政府采取了一系列行动，包括 一些州和地方征收消费税。目前，23个州、华盛顿特区和几个地方 司法管辖区已经制定了消费税。虽然这些税收可能会阻止年轻人最终使用，但它仍然 尚不清楚在州和地方各级制定的终结税的征收和力度是否保持了 成年吸烟者转向吸烟者的成本激励。正如2020年Cochrane的一篇评论所得出的结论，有适度的 证据支持在帮助吸烟者戒烟方面的有效性，了解这一点越来越重要 在针对两端和香烟的烟草税制中，终结税如何影响选择 这两种药物，特别是成年吸烟者，他们同时使用这两种药物，可能正在戒烟的过渡期。 终端产品特性的日益复杂使有效税收的设计进一步复杂化 政策。与简单地以单位(每包)为基础的卷烟税不同，末端税可以以体积(每毫升)为基础， 价格(每值)、尼古丁(每毫克)和税基的选择将导致不同的税负。 系统(Pod与一次性。VS坦克系统)，这可能会进一步影响产品选择、满意度和 烟草使用轨迹。 这个项目的主要目标是通过量化末端税的影响来填补证据空白。 关于烟草消费和选择(如一次性产品)的政策，包括强制和力度 Vs.豆荚；烟头vs.香烟)，进一步探索不同的税负 由于税基不同，影响了产品的选择。我们建议进行体积选择实验 (VCEs)在同时使用香烟和香烟的成年人(18岁以上；N=400)中检查目标1(A 烟草税制度，对烟蒂和香烟之间的选择以及每种香烟的消费)，以及成年人之间的 使用Ends且不吸烟(18岁以上；N=400岁)以检查目标2(Ends税对 最终产品选择和消费)。我们将创新地采用在公共离散的基础上扩展的VCE 选择实验(DCES)用于烟草研究，具有以下优点：1)测量数量 而不是二元选择；2)灵活地对产品之间的关系进行建模 互补性(例如，最终使用增加吸烟)和替代(最终使用减少吸烟)； 3)明确建模设备税(价格)和可再充税(价格)对行为的影响。 我们的研究具有非常重要的意义，并将通过以下方式为联邦、州和地方政府提供税收政策 END税在减少成年终端使用者烟草使用和危害方面的有效性的证据， 它阐述了NCI烟草研究在未来十年的优先事项，包括了解 目前的烟草产品(#4)，并确定进一步减少烟草使用的创新政策(#7)。

Project Abstract The marked increase in ENDS use in the last decade has prompted a range of government actions, including the imposition of ENDS excise taxes by some states and localities. Currently, 23 states, DC, and several local jurisdictions have ENDS excise taxes in place. While these taxes may prevent youth from ENDS use, it remains unclear whether the imposition and strength of ENDS taxes enacted at the state and local levels have kept the cost incentive for adult smokers to switch to ENDS. As a 2020 Cochrane review concluded that there is moderate evidence supporting ENDS effectiveness in helping smokers to quit, it is increasingly important to understand how ENDS taxes in a tobacco tax system that targets both ENDS and cigarettes impact the choices between the two, particularly among adult smokers who use both and are possibly in transition to quitting smoking. The growing complexity of product characteristics of ENDS further complicates the design of effective tax policies. Unlike cigarette taxes based simply on unit (per pack), ENDS taxes can be based on volume (per ml), price (per value), and nicotine (per mg), and choices of tax bases will lead to differential tax burdens by ENDS systems (pods vs. disposables. vs. tank systems) that could further impact product choices, satisfaction, and tobacco use trajectories. The broad goal of this project is to fill the evidence gap by quantifying the impacts of ENDS tax policies, including the imposition and strength, on tobacco consumption and choices (e.g., disposables vs. pods; ENDS vs. cigarettes) among adult ENDS users, further exploring how differential tax burdens due to different tax bases impact product choices. We propose to conduct volumetric choice experiments (VCEs) among adults who dual-use cigarettes and ENDS (age 18+; N=400) to examine Aim 1 (the impact of a tobacco tax system on choices between ENDS and cigarettes and the consumption of each), and among adults who use ENDS and do not smoke cigarettes (age 18+; N=400) to examine Aim 2 (the impact of ENDS taxes on ENDS product choice and consumption). We will innovatively adopt VCEs which expand on the common discrete choice experiments (DCEs) used in tobacco research and have the following advantages: 1) measure quantities instead of binary choices; 2) flexibly model the relationship between products by allowing for both complementarity (e.g., ENDS use increases cigarette smoking) and substitution (ENDS use decreases smoking); and 3) explicitly model the impacts of device taxes (prices) and refillable taxes (prices) on behaviors. Our study is highly significant and will inform federal, state, and local ENDS tax policies by providing evidence on the effectiveness of ENDS taxes on reducing tobacco use and harms among adult ENDS users, which addresses NCI tobacco research priorities for the next decade, including understanding the complexity of current tobacco products (#4) and identifying innovative policy to further reduce tobacco use (# 7).