Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models (TipESM)

TipESM汇集了一系列学科的科学家，旨在改变我们对地球系统气候临界点的理解，包括它们对生态系统和社会的影响，并结合一套早期预警指标和安全的未来排放途径，将超过这些临界点的风险降至最低。TipESM汇集了最新的地球系统模型(ESM)，包括对关键过程的最新改进：冰盖、植被和土地利用、永冻土、海洋和陆地生物地球化学。TipESM将与WCRP/未来地球项目TIPMIP合作，组织国际合作，设计和实现通用的ESM实验协议，有助于分析不同水平和全球变暖持续时间的倾覆元素发生的可能性和潜在的可逆性。这些实验将与更多针对特定项目的ESM实验相结合，旨在调查整个地球系统的相互作用和反馈。在TipESM实验、现有模拟和观测的基础上，我们将研究引爆点及其驱动过程、潜在的预警信号和跨气候、生态系统和社会的连锁效应。将地球系统最重要的组成部分包括在我们的环境管理系统中，也将使TipESM能够识别潜在的未知倾倒元素、它们的前驱和影响。TIPESM汇集了气候科学和气候影响方面的专业知识，以调查逐步气候变化对个别生态系统和社会的倾倒的作用，以及跨越特定气候临界点对社会、生态系统和生物多样性的影响。项目调查结果将被综合到临界点风险登记册中。TipESM的新知识和数据将定期传达给广泛的研究社区、政策制定者和公众，为建立一个有准备和有弹性的社会做出贡献。

TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping pointsin the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe futureemission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points. TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs),including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry.In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realisea common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tippingelements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESMexperiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existingsimulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascadingeffects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will alsoallow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts. TipESM brings together expertise fromclimate science and climate impactsto investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society,and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesisedinto a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of researchcommunities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.