Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models (TipESM)

使用地球系统模型探索临界点及其影响 (TipESM)

• 批准号: 10090271
• 金额: $ 45.72万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF READING
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: EU-Funded
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=10090271
• 关键词: Exploring; Tipping; Points; Their; Impacts

TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping pointsin the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe futureemission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points. TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs),including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry.In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realisea common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tippingelements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESMexperiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existingsimulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascadingeffects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will alsoallow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts. TipESM brings together expertise fromclimate science and climate impactsto investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society,and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesisedinto a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of researchcommunities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.

TipESM汇集了来自不同学科的科学家，旨在逐步改变我们对地球系统中气候临界点的理解，包括它们对生态系统和社会的影响，并结合一套早期预警指标和安全的未来排放途径，将超过这些临界点的风险降至最低。TipESM汇集了最新的地球系统模型（esm），包括最近对关键过程的改进：冰盖、植被和土地利用、永久冻土、海洋和陆地生物地球化学。TipESM将与WCRP/未来地球计划TIPMIP合作，组织一项国际合作，设计和实现一个共同的ESM实验方案，以促进分析在不同水平和全球变暖持续时间下发生倾倒因素的可能性和潜在可逆性。这些实验将与更多特定项目的esm实验相结合，旨在研究整个地球系统的相互作用和反馈。基于TipESM实验、现有的模拟和观测，我们将研究临界点、它们的驱动过程、潜在的早期预警信号以及在气候、生态系统和社会中的级联效应。在我们的esm中包括地球系统最重要的组成部分，也将使TipESM能够识别潜在未知的引爆因素、它们的前体和影响。TipESM汇集了气候科学和气候影响方面的专业知识，研究气候变化对个别生态系统和社会的影响，以及跨越特定气候临界点对社会、生态系统和生物多样性的影响。项目发现将被综合成一个临界点风险登记册。来自TipESM的新知识和数据将定期与广泛的研究界、决策者和公众交流，为一个有准备和有弹性的社会做出贡献。