Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models (TipESM)

TipESM汇集了来自一系列学科的科学家，使我们对地球系统的气候临界点的理解发生了一步变化，包括它们对生态系统和社会的影响，并结合了一套预警指标和安全的未来排放途径，最大限度地降低了超过这些临界点的风险。TipESM汇集了最新的地球系统模型（ESM），包括对关键流程的最新改进：冰盖、植被和土地利用、永久冻土、海洋和陆地生物地球化学。TipESM将与WCRP/未来地球项目TIPMIP合作，组织一项国际合作，设计和实施一项共同的ESM实验协议，以促进分析发生的可能性和潜在的可逆性，在全球变暖的不同水平和持续时间的tippingelements。这些实验将与更多针对具体项目的ESM实验相结合，旨在调查整个地球系统的相互作用和反馈。基于TipESM实验，现有的模拟和观测，我们将研究引爆点，其驱动过程，潜在的预警信号和对气候，生态系统和社会的影响。将地球系统中最重要的组成部分纳入我们的ESM也将使TipESM能够识别潜在的未知倾翻元素，其前兆和影响。TipESM汇集了来自气候科学和气候影响的专业知识，以调查逐步气候变化对单个生态系统和社会的作用，以及跨越特定气候临界点对社会，生态系统和生物多样性的影响。项目调查结果将综合纳入临界点风险登记册。TipESM的新知识和数据将定期传达给广泛的研究界、政策制定者和公众，为建设一个有准备和有复原力的社会做出贡献。

TipESM brings together scientists from a range of disciplines to deliver a step change in our understanding of climate tipping pointsin the Earth system, including their impact on ecosystems and society, combined with a set of early warning indicators and safe futureemission pathways that minimise the risk of exceeding such tipping points. TipESM assembles the latest Earth System Models (ESMs),including recent improvements to key processes: ice sheets, vegetation and land use, permafrost, marine and terrestrial biogeochemistry.In cooperation with the WCRP/Future-Earth project TIPMIP, TipESM will organise an international collaboration to design and realisea common ESM experiment protocol that will facilitate analysis of the likelihood of occurrence, and potential reversibility, of tippingelements at different levels and duration of global warming. These experiments, will be combined with more project-specific ESMexperiments, designed to investigate interactions and feedbacks across the Earth system. Based on the TipESM experiments, existingsimulations and observations, we will investigate tipping points, their driving processes, potential early warning signals and cascadingeffects across the climate, ecosystems and society. Including the most important components of the Earth system in our ESMs will alsoallow TipESM to identify potentially unknown tipping elements, their precursors and impacts. TipESM brings together expertise fromclimate science and climate impactsto investigate both the role of gradual climate change for tipping in individual ecosystems and society,and the impact of crossing specific climate tipping points for society, ecosystems, and biodiversity. Project findings will be synthesisedinto a tipping points risk register. New knowledge and data from TipESM will be regularly communicated to a broad range of researchcommunities, policymakers and the public, contributing to a prepared and resilient society.