U.S. Fertility and the Pandemic: Changing Fertility Plans in an Era of Uncertainty and Stress

摘要 美国的低生育率水平已经有了很好的记录，人们普遍担心低生育率 水平可能不会反弹。生育率在大衰退期间（2007 - 2008年）开始下降， 从来没有对经济的改善做出反应。持续的大流行导致了 对健康、经济、人际关系和家庭生活的普遍不确定性和压力， 这可能导致生育率进一步下降。在这种新的气候下，男人和女人可能会在 发展新模式的过程，指导决策的更广泛的相互关联的态度 和行为。我们现在正处于评估美国人生育计划的关键时期， 模式，并可能有助于生育能力的恢复。此外， 大流行病的经历不会均匀，对大多数人的影响最大， 经济边缘化群体。尽管研究人员记录了社会人口统计学 生育率的变化，这些调查仍然是不完整的，因为现有的数据不能确定 在目前的流行病气候中，这些差异背后的机制。尽管已经 研究人员一直在猜测这一流行病对生育能力的影响 由于缺乏基于人口的数据， 特别关注这段时间的生育率。我们利用两个互补的数据 大流行期间收集的数据，可用于分析不同国家的生育计划 视角首先，托莱多青少年关系研究（TARS）是唯一一个 该领域目前旨在评估生育计划变化的纵向数据， 可以建立因果关系。第二，全国夫妇健康和时间利用研究 （NCHAT）包括调查合作伙伴影响的必要设计和测量 和配偶的生育计划。目标1将评估大流行期间的生育率预期 对关系和财务不确定性的暴露和经历的变化进行会计处理 和压力，以便确定最有可能改变其生育目标的群体。目标2将 从以下角度审查不确定性和压力在生育决策中的作用： 夫妻双方使用配偶和伴侣的直接和代理报告， NCHAT。目标3将利用TARS的纵向数据（大流行前和大流行中期收集的数据）， 大流行病），以确定生育率预期的变化幅度，并确定 不确定性和压力影响生育计划。这些发现为以下方面奠定了基础： 未来的生育率工作，为生育率预测奠定基础，并确定可能的 恢复生育率的目标。

Abstract Low U.S. fertility levels have been well documented, with widespread concern that low fertility levels may not rebound. Fertility started to decline during the Great Recession (2007-2008) and never responded to improvements in the economy. The ongoing pandemic has led to widespread uncertainty and stress about health, the economy, relationships, and family life, which may result in further fertility declines. In this new climate men and women may be in the process of developing new schema, broader sets of interrelated attitudes that guide decisions and behaviors. We are now in a critical time period to assess Americans’ fertility plans and schemas and potentially to contribute to a fertility recovery. Further, the deleterious effects of the pandemic will not be experienced evenly, and will have the greatest impact on the most economically marginalized groups. Although researchers have documented sociodemographic variation in fertility, these investigations remain incomplete because existing data cannot identify the mechanisms underlying these differentials in the current pandemic climate. While there have been speculations about the implications of the pandemic on fertility, researchers have been hampered in analyses of the effects of the pandemic due to a lack of population-based data focused specifically on fertility during this time period. We draw on two complementary data collections occurring during the pandemic that allow analysis of fertility plans from differing perspectives. First, the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) is the only major longitudinal data currently in the field designed to assess changes in fertility plans, making it possible to establish causality. Second, the National Couples’ Health and Time Use Study (NCHAT) includes the necessary design and measurement to investigate the effects of partners and spouses on fertility plans. Aim 1 will assess fertility expectations during the pandemic accounting for variation in exposure to and experiences of relational and financial uncertainty and stress, allowing identification of the groups most likely to alter their fertility goals. Aim 2 will examine the role of uncertainty and stress in fertility decision-making from the perspectives of both members of the couple using direct and proxy reports from spouse and partners in the NCHAT. Aim 3 will capitalize on the TARS’ longitudinal data (collected pre-pandemic and midst- pandemic) to determine the magnitude of change in fertility expectations and to determine how uncertainty and stress influence fertility plans. Together the findings set the groundwork for future work on fertility in this era, set the basis for fertility projections, and identify possible targets for a fertility recovery.