U.S. Fertility and the Pandemic: Changing Fertility Plans in an Era of Uncertainty and Stress

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Abstract Low U.S. fertility levels have been well documented, with widespread concern that low fertility levels may not rebound. Fertility started to decline during the Great Recession (2007-2008) and never responded to improvements in the economy. The ongoing pandemic has led to widespread uncertainty and stress about health, the economy, relationships, and family life, which may result in further fertility declines. In this new climate men and women may be in the process of developing new schema, broader sets of interrelated attitudes that guide decisions and behaviors. We are now in a critical time period to assess Americans’ fertility plans and schemas and potentially to contribute to a fertility recovery. Further, the deleterious effects of the pandemic will not be experienced evenly, and will have the greatest impact on the most economically marginalized groups. Although researchers have documented sociodemographic variation in fertility, these investigations remain incomplete because existing data cannot identify the mechanisms underlying these differentials in the current pandemic climate. While there have been speculations about the implications of the pandemic on fertility, researchers have been hampered in analyses of the effects of the pandemic due to a lack of population-based data focused specifically on fertility during this time period. We draw on two complementary data collections occurring during the pandemic that allow analysis of fertility plans from differing perspectives. First, the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) is the only major longitudinal data currently in the field designed to assess changes in fertility plans, making it possible to establish causality. Second, the National Couples’ Health and Time Use Study (NCHAT) includes the necessary design and measurement to investigate the effects of partners and spouses on fertility plans. Aim 1 will assess fertility expectations during the pandemic accounting for variation in exposure to and experiences of relational and financial uncertainty and stress, allowing identification of the groups most likely to alter their fertility goals. Aim 2 will examine the role of uncertainty and stress in fertility decision-making from the perspectives of both members of the couple using direct and proxy reports from spouse and partners in the NCHAT. Aim 3 will capitalize on the TARS’ longitudinal data (collected pre-pandemic and midst- pandemic) to determine the magnitude of change in fertility expectations and to determine how uncertainty and stress influence fertility plans. Together the findings set the groundwork for future work on fertility in this era, set the basis for fertility projections, and identify possible targets for a fertility recovery.