U.S. Fertility and the Pandemic: Changing Fertility Plans in an Era of Uncertainty and Stress

摘要 美国的低生育率水平已经有了很好的记录，人们普遍担心低生育率 水平可能不会反弹。生育率在大衰退(2007-2008)期间开始下降， 从来没有对经济的改善做出回应。正在进行的大流行导致了 在健康、经济、人际关系和家庭生活方面普遍存在不确定性和压力， 这可能会导致生育率进一步下降。在这种新的气候下，男人和女人可能会 制定指导决策的新模式和更广泛的相互关联的态度的过程 和行为。我们现在正处于评估美国人生育计划和 计划和潜在地有助于生育率的恢复。更进一步地说， 这场大流行不会平均经历，对大多数人的影响最大 经济上处于边缘地位的群体。尽管研究人员记录了社会人口学 这些研究仍然不完整，因为现有的数据不能确定 在当前的大流行气候下，这些差异背后的机制。在那里有 一直在猜测流感大流行对生育率的影响，研究人员一直在 由于缺乏以人口为基础的数据，阻碍了对大流行影响的分析 特别关注这一时期的生育率。我们利用了两个互补的数据 在大流行期间发生的收集，允许分析不同的生育计划 透视。首先，托莱多青少年关系研究(TARS)是唯一一个 目前该领域的纵向数据旨在评估生育计划的变化，使其 有可能建立因果关系。第二，国家夫妻健康和时间使用研究 (NCHAT)包括必要的设计和测量以调查合作伙伴的影响 以及生育计划中的配偶。目标1将评估大流行期间的生育预期 对关系和财务不确定性的风险敞口和经历的差异进行核算 和压力，从而确定最有可能改变生育目标的群体。目标2将 从以下角度考察不确定性和压力在生育决策中的作用 夫妻双方都使用来自配偶和伴侣的直接和代理报告 NCHAT。目标3将利用TARS的纵向数据(大流行前和中期收集的数据)。 大流行病)，以确定生育率预期变化的幅度并确定如何 不确定性和压力会影响生育计划。总而言之，这些发现为 在这个时代关于生育率的未来工作，为生育率预测奠定基础，并确定可能的 生育率恢复的目标。

Abstract Low U.S. fertility levels have been well documented, with widespread concern that low fertility levels may not rebound. Fertility started to decline during the Great Recession (2007-2008) and never responded to improvements in the economy. The ongoing pandemic has led to widespread uncertainty and stress about health, the economy, relationships, and family life, which may result in further fertility declines. In this new climate men and women may be in the process of developing new schema, broader sets of interrelated attitudes that guide decisions and behaviors. We are now in a critical time period to assess Americans’ fertility plans and schemas and potentially to contribute to a fertility recovery. Further, the deleterious effects of the pandemic will not be experienced evenly, and will have the greatest impact on the most economically marginalized groups. Although researchers have documented sociodemographic variation in fertility, these investigations remain incomplete because existing data cannot identify the mechanisms underlying these differentials in the current pandemic climate. While there have been speculations about the implications of the pandemic on fertility, researchers have been hampered in analyses of the effects of the pandemic due to a lack of population-based data focused specifically on fertility during this time period. We draw on two complementary data collections occurring during the pandemic that allow analysis of fertility plans from differing perspectives. First, the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) is the only major longitudinal data currently in the field designed to assess changes in fertility plans, making it possible to establish causality. Second, the National Couples’ Health and Time Use Study (NCHAT) includes the necessary design and measurement to investigate the effects of partners and spouses on fertility plans. Aim 1 will assess fertility expectations during the pandemic accounting for variation in exposure to and experiences of relational and financial uncertainty and stress, allowing identification of the groups most likely to alter their fertility goals. Aim 2 will examine the role of uncertainty and stress in fertility decision-making from the perspectives of both members of the couple using direct and proxy reports from spouse and partners in the NCHAT. Aim 3 will capitalize on the TARS’ longitudinal data (collected pre-pandemic and midst- pandemic) to determine the magnitude of change in fertility expectations and to determine how uncertainty and stress influence fertility plans. Together the findings set the groundwork for future work on fertility in this era, set the basis for fertility projections, and identify possible targets for a fertility recovery.