Judgements and Decisions under Ambiguity and Conflict

歧义和冲突下的判断和决定

• 批准号: DP150101889
• 负责人: Prof Michael Smithson
• 金额: $ 15.7万
• 依托单位: The Australian National University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2015-01-21 至 2018-10-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP150101889
• 关键词: Judgements; Decisions; under; Ambiguity; Conflict

Little is known about how people make decisions when faced with uncertainties arising from information that is both ambiguous and conflicting, despite the fact that ambiguity and conflict frequently arise in real decision-making situations. In fact, virtually nothing is known about the joint impact of conflict and ambiguity on judgements of risk and uncertainty or on decisional preferences. This project will investigate how perceptions of uncertainty are jointly affected by conflict and ambiguity in information, develop and test formal models of judgement and decision making under conflict and ambiguity, and examine the joint effects of ambiguity and conflict aversion on decision making.

尽管在实际决策中经常出现模棱两可和冲突的情况，但人们在面对因信息含糊和相互冲突而产生的不确定因素时如何做出决定，我们知之甚少。事实上，关于冲突和模棱两可对风险和不确定性的判断或对决策偏好的共同影响，几乎一无所知。该项目将调查信息中的冲突和歧义如何共同影响对不确定性的感知，开发和测试冲突和歧义下的判断和决策的正式模型，并审查歧义和冲突厌恶对决策的联合影响。