OLDEST-OLD MORTALITY ACROSS GENERATIONS

在发达国家死亡率的年龄轨迹中是否有一个共同的模式 高龄国家？这种模式，尽管不同，但 参数值，用于Medfys、Mexfys、西印度群岛果蝇、 果蝇呢？男性与女性的死亡年龄轨迹 融合还是交叉？近几十年来取得了多大的进步 在降低80岁以后的死亡率方面？ 本研究项目旨在通过以下方式解决这些问题 将对数据集进行基于理论的建模和统计分析 严格检查可靠性，并实现并全文发布到 帮助未来的研究人员。具体地说，在拟议的研究中，我们将： (1)完整扩展、更正、归档、发布(含公共使用文件) 关于按性别分类的死亡人数、人口数目和死亡人数的数据集 50岁以后及以下的最高年龄 年龄，按一年为几十年，并在可能的情况下，按 包括美国在内的至少28个发达国家的出生年份 各州。 (2)应用各种方法检查数据的可靠性，包括 一些创新的词法映射方法到这些数据集。 (3)改进灭绝队列方法，使死亡率能够 仅根据死亡统计数据对尚未灭绝的队列进行估计。 (4)分析这些数据以确定随年龄增长的死亡率轨迹 和时间，不同性别和不同国家，重点是死亡率 80岁以后，重点是寻找统一的、潜在的模式 这有助于理解衰老和死亡的机制。 (5)对水蝇、苍蝇和西印度群岛果蝇的数据进行分析 头脑中也有类似的问题。 (6)分析果蝇按基因和染色体分类的数据 用于确定基因和基因死亡轨迹的标记 (即，对于拥有相似染色体区域的群体)，同样 头脑中的问题与目标4中的问题类似，目标是 确定是否可以开发出“包容性”死亡率模型 跨越种群、物种和基因型别。

Is there a common pattern in the age-trajectory of mortality in developed countries at oldest-old ages? Does this pattern, albeit with different parameter values, hold for Medflies, Mexflies, West Indian fruitflies, and Drosophila? Do age trajectories of mortality for males vs. females converge or crossover? How much progress has been made in recent decades in reducing mortality after age 80? This research project is designed to address these questions through theory-based modeling and statistical analysis of data sets that will be rigorously checked for reliability and achieved and published in full to aid future researchers. Specifically, in the proposed research we will: (1) Extend, correct, archive, and publish in full (with public use files) a data set on sex-specific death counts, population counts, and death rates after age 50 and up to the highest ages attained by single year of age, by single year of time for several decades, and when possible, by year of birth, in at least 28 developed countries including the United States. (2) Apply various methods of checking data for reliability, including some innovative Lexis-map methods to these data sets. (3) Refine extinct-cohort methods so that mortality rates can be estimated for not-yet-extinct cohorts based only on death count data. (4) Analyze these data to determine trajectories of mortality over age and time, between sexes, and across countries, with a focus on mortality after age 80 and with emphasis on finding unifying, underlying patterns that aid understanding of the mechanisms of aging and death. (5) Analyze data on Medflies, Mexflies, and West Indian fruitflies with similar questions in mind. (6) Analyze data on Drosophila classified by genotype and by chromosomal markers to determine mortality trajectories for genotypes and for genes (i.e., for populations that share similar chromosomal regions), again with questions in mind similar to those in aim 4, and with the goal of determining whether "inclusive" mortality models can be developed that hold across populations, species, and genotypes.