COST EFFECTIVENESS CHANGES IN NATIONAL ALCOHOL USE

适量饮酒与较低的冠状动脉发病率相关 心脏病比戒酒更重要。然而，消费，即使在 适度，并不是没有风险，包括逐步上升 消费水平过高。确定它是非常重要的。 全国饮酒模式的变化将如何影响公众 健康。 这个项目将考察国家政策变化可能产生的影响 通过冠心病(CHD)政策模型饮酒， 中国成人冠心病的计算机模拟状态转移(马尔可夫)模型 美国。该模型使用了来自全国调查和 已发表的预测冠心病发病率和死亡率的队列研究， 血管重建术和非心脏死亡率。 冠心病发病率的纵向变化(和 发病率、死亡率和成本的相关变化_) 以下是适度饮酒的流行率 估计。非心源性死亡率的变化可能发生在不同的 酒精摄入量将在以下范围内进行预测 关于适度消费升级到 过度使用，以及不同酒精模式的成本效益 将对消费进行评估。还将对这些更改进行建模 分别在不同性别、不同冠心病病史人群中分布。这些结果 可能会引起公共卫生专业人士的兴趣，他们试图平衡 全人群酗酒和冠心病的风险，护理的医生 患有这些疾病的患者和希望避免 这些疾病。

Moderate alcohol use is associated with a lower incidence of coronary heart disease than is abstention. However, consumption, even in moderation, is not without risk, including a progressive rise in consumption to excessive levels. It is of great importance to determine how changes in the patterns of national alcohol use could affect public health. This project will examine the probable effects of changes in national alcohol consumption through the Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model, a computer-simulation state-transition (MARKOV) model of CHD in adults in the United States. The model uses data from the national surveys and published cohort-studies to predict CHD incidence and mortality, revascularization procedures, and non-cardiac mortality. Longitudinal changes in the incidence of coronary heart disease (and associated changes in morbidity, mortality, and costs_) that occur following in the prevalence of moderate alcohol consumption will be estimated. Changes in non-cardiac mortality that may occur with different magnitudes of alcohol intake will be predicted across a range of assumptions about the likelihood of moderate consumption escalating to excessive use, and the cost-effectiveness of different patterns of alcohol consumption will be assessed. These changes will also be modeled separately in people of different gender and history of CHD. These results may prove of interest to public health professionals trying to balance the population wide risks of alcohol abuse and CHD, physicians who care for patients with these illnesses, and members of the public hoping to avoid these diseases.