The dog that didn't bark: a Bayesian account of reasoning from censored data

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This project aims to develop and test a new computational theory of inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning involves extending knowledge from known to novel instances, and is a central component of intelligent behaviour. This project will address the cognitive mechanisms that allow people to draw inferences based on both observed and censored evidence. The project intends to test the model through an extensive program of experimental investigation and computational modelling. The anticipated benefits include an enhanced understanding of human inference, especially in domains such as the evaluation of forensic or financial evidence, where data censoring is common.